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UFC 88 Early Thoughts

Tuesday, August 19th, 2008

UFC 88 is just under three weeks away, and lines for five of the fights are available. Unless otherwise stated these lines come from betus.com. When Bodog gets around to putting up their lines I’ll do a comparison post.

Middleweights:

Kampmann made his debut at UFC – Fight Night 6 as a late replacement defeating Crafton Wallace by submission at 2:59 of round one. I give him a lot of credit for that. It’s rare to see a late replacement come in and win, and the fact the Kampmann was able to do so in a dominating fashion gives me a lot of confidence in him. His next fight was against Thales Leites (13-1). Kampmann defeated Leites by unanimous decision. Since that fight Leites has gone 4-0 in the UFC, including a win over Nate Marquardt. Kampmann’s most two recent UFC fights have been victories over Drew McFedries (7-3) and Jorge Rivera (15-7).

I like Nate Marquardt a lot. I think he is an excellent fighter who sometimes makes poor decisions. In his last fight against Thales Leites, he was docked 2 points for penalties, and he still only lost a split decision. Before that he defeated Jeremy Horn by submission at UFC 81. Horn took the fight on late notice, so I don’t place too much importance on that win. He also lost to Anderson Silva at UFC 73. So in the last 13 months Marquardt is 1-2 with his only win coming over a replacement fighter. That doesn’t instill with me a sense of confidence when I think about his chances. Add to that the fact he is the favorite, and I’ll go with Kampmann.

My Pick: Martin Kampmann (EVEN)

Middleweights:

Dan Henderson is a legend. So what if he hasn’t won a fight in 18 months? I still like him against a relative nobody at -200. My all time favorite Dan Henderson fight was his loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at PRIDE 24 – Cold Fury 3. Henderson was outweighed by around 30 pounds but he still was able to hold his own against the much larger Brazilian, until Minotauro was able to secure an armbar in the third round to win by submission. If you haven’t seen that fight I highly recommend it.

Rousimar Palhares won his UFC debut against Ivan Salaverry (12-7) at UFC 84. Before that all of his fights took place in Brazil. He has fought a couple of fighters I have heard of before. He defeated PRIDE Bushido veteran Daniel Acacio (14-6) by submission in 2007. He also defeated Fabio "I just lost to Matt Lindland at the Affliction PPV" Negao last year.

I see this fight as being a must win for Dan Henderson. If he loses to Rousimar Palhares that will mean three loses in a row for Henderson, and at 37 years old I believe that would be too much of a blow to recover from.

My Pick: Dan Henderson (-200)

Welterweights:

Yoshiyuki Yoshida hasn’t lost since December of 2005 and has knockout power. Six of his wins have come by KO or TKO. Yoshida also won his UFC debut at UFC 84 against Jon Koppenhaver (5-2).

I’m not going to lie. Karo Parisyan is an excellent fighter, but he lost me a chunk of money in his fight against Thiago Alves in April. So my breakdown of why to bet against him looks like this:

• -280 is too much for a fighter coming off of a loss.
• His technical excellence isn’t worth as much against a good striker
• He hasn’t defeated an excellent fighter in over a year and a half (As much as I hate to say it, Ryo Chonan doesn’t count)
• I hate him

Seems reasonable to me. If you feel that my rage is blinding my judgement in this fight, I won’t blame you if you go against me on this one.

Speaking of Ryo "Piranha" Chonan, I’m glad to see him in the UFC. He definitely isn’t the most talented Japanese ex-PRIDE fighter, but he was always one of my personal favorites. I have a feeling the only reason the UFC brought him over is so that he can hopefully win a match or two and get a title shot against Anderson Silva. Chonan defeated Silva in 2004, but I feel that if they ever had a rematch it would be the most lobsided rematch ever.

My Pick: Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+210)

Light Heavyweights:

I didn’t know Matt Hamill was so old. His first professional fight was in 2006. So that would make him 29 at the time of his debut. What did he do before that? His Wikipedia page says he won a Deaflympic wrestling gold medal in 2001, but that still leaves a 5 year gap. He was on The Ultimate Fighter Season 3, but I don’t remember them mentioning what he was up to for the five previous years. Regardless, he’s a badass. Let’s be honest, he’s undefeated. Regardless of what the judges said, he beat Michael Bisping at UFC 75 in England. That decision was absolutely the worst MMA decision I have ever seen outside of Japan.

Rich Franklin is an excellent fighter. He is 10-2 in the UFC with his only two losses both coming against Anderson Silva. All but two of those fights have taken place at the middleweight weight class. This fight at light heavyweight will be Franklin’s first fight at this weight since UFC 44. I don’t like that at all. I don’t think the extra weight is going to help him against a fighter who is naturally bigger than him. Add to that the fact he is a big favorite, and I am easily going to have to choose Hamill.

My Pick: Matt Hamill (+190)

Light Heavyweights:

I’m not 100% sure about this one right now. I’m leaning towards Evans, but my mind isn’t made up yet. I’ll be back closer to the date of the actual fight with my breakdown of this match, as well as breakdowns of the matches not listed here.

So I guess this is to be continued………

The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks UFC 87

Thursday, August 7th, 2008

Ultimate Fighting Championship live from Minneapolis, MN Saturday August 9th at 10 PM ET!!! Let’s get to it.

Welterweights:

Luke Cummo is 6-5 with no notable victories, yet he’s the favorite? Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory is 8-1 with his only loss coming against old school Shooto/Pancrase/PRIDE veteran Akihiro Gono. I’ll take "The Barn Cat" in this one.

I only have one question. Why call yourself "Barn Cat"? I like the uniqueness, but don’t see the fear inspiring potential.

My Pick: Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory (+110)

Heavyweights:

I don’t know what to think about Cheick Kongo. He has some impressive victories in the UFC including back-to-back wins over Assuerio Silva and the enormous headcase Mirko Cro Cop. That said, I think he looked terrible in his most recent fight against Heath Herring.

The UFC appears to like Kongo because they are putting him in the ring with newcomer Dan Evensen. Evensen’s most recent fight was a victory over Konstantin Gluhov (2-2) for BodogFight in November. Evensen has no notable victories, but six of his ten victories come by way of knockout. It doesn’t take a lot for me to take a fighter at +350, and Evensen’s knockout ability is enough for me.

By the way, Kongo trains at Quoniam Gym which is also Quinton "Rampage" Jackson’s gym. Maybe Rampage’s temporary insanity had a negative effect on his training?

My Pick: Dan Evensen (+350)

Light Heavyweights:

Two undefeated guys here. Neither with UFC caliber experience. Let’s break them down:

Gusmao is an IFL veteran who went 4-0 in the now defunct promotion. Gusmao has two notable victories over Mike Ciesnolevicz (15-3). Gusmao is 31 frickin’ years old. Why did he start his MMA career so late? Gusmao has one of those mean looking Brazilian shoulder tattoos.

Jon Jones is the youngest fighter currently under contract with the UFC. Jones has no notable victories. Jones was a JUCO National Wrestling Champion. Jones has a 4 fight deal with the UFC, so they at least see some potential in him.

Straight up I would take Gusmao in this one, but with the odds I’m going to go with Jones. He hasn’t been tested like Gusmao has, but his strong wrestling background and youth (read: extra energy) could lead to victory.

My Pick: Jon Jones (+175)

Welterweights:

I don’t like this fight.

Wilson has the better pedigree, but in his UFC debut he was fed to the wolves when he had to fight Jon Fitch. Before his UFC debut, Wilson had some fights in the IFL with his most notable victory probably coming over Rory Markham. If you can’t remember who Markham is, he is the fighter who was awarded the Knockout of the Night for his headkick against Brodie Farber at the UFC event on July 19th.

Before becoming an MMA fighter, Steve Bruno was a Naval Air Crewman / Rescue Swimmer for the U.S. Navy. He has never faced any great competition, but has won four fights in a row. He does have stopping power with six of his wins coming by knockout and four by submission.

Straight up I would take Wilson, but I am not going to take a fighter at -330 who is 0-1 in the UFC.

My Pick: Steve Bruno (+260)

Welterweights:

Bodoglife has Ben Saunders listed as "Ben Sanders". I don’t like that. I also didn’t like Saunders in The Ultimate Fighter. Normally that would be enough reason for me to take Thomas, but get a hold of this: Thomas fought three weeks ago. Not three months ago, but three weeks ago. In fact, Thomas has had five fights this year. Although I respect Thomas for his willingness to get out there and work, that many fights can’t be a good thing when you are facing a fighter who is officially undefeated. I’ll take the favorite here.

My Pick: Ben Saunders (-260)

Lightweights:

I love Manny Gamburyan. Want to know why? Skip ahead to 2:10 of this video:

A lot of people might see that as cheap. I say grow a pair. Does the ref not say at the beginning of every fight, "Protect yourself at all times." Just because it has become a tradition to touch gloves a SECOND TIME to start a fight doesn’t mean an intelligent fighter should pay any attention to that. How did that stupid tradition start anyway? What if I wanted to touch gloves a third time or do whatever they call the traditional Muay Thai ceremonial stuff after the fight started. Would the other fighter be declared cheap if he took a shot at me?

Gamburyan only has 2 losses in his career. One was against Sean Sherk in 2001. He was also beat by Nate Diaz in 2007 when he dislocated his shoulder during their fight.

Rob Emerson is a scumbag, and not a very good fighter. The only way I see Gamburyan losing is if his shoulder slips out. I’ll assume (hope? pray?) that the shoulder problem was a one time thing and pick Gamburyan in this fight

My Pick: Manny Gamburyan (-325)

Middleweights:

Bodoglife.com lists this as a fight of "Damian" Maia vs. Jason "McDonald", but what can you do? Can you really expect the employees of the largest sportsbook on the web to spell check the names of the fighters.

Demian Maia is a world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner. In his first two UFC fights he won Submission of the Night. Jason MacDonald usually wins his fights by submission, but against a fighter of Maia’s caliber I don’t think a submission will be possible. I think the UFC is tossing Maia a bone here and trying to build up his reputation before putting him in the cage against a figher whose style could cause him trouble. I see Maia easily winning this fight by submission.

My Pick: Demian "Damian" Maia (-260)

Lightweights:

This has the potential to be a great fight.

This fight can really go either way, but I am going to take Roger Huerta for a couple of reasons. First, I always think the lines for The Ultimate Fighter alumni tend to be a little inflated. I think that is the case here also. Florian is a great fighter, and in general, he has faced tougher competition than Roger Huera, but making him -165 seems a little steep to me. Huerta is undefeated in the UFC, and he hasn’t lost since 2001. For those reasons I am going to have to go with Roger Huerta in this one.

Fun Fact From Wikipedia: "On April 5, 2007, at UFC Fight Night 9 Florian defeated Japanese fighter Dokonjonosuke Mishima via rear naked choke submission. In the interview after this fight, Florian can be seen pretending to drink Xyience energy drink. The can was clearly unopened."

My Pick: Roger Huerta (+135)

Heavyweights:

Brock "WWE Champion" Lesnar being the favorite in this fight amuses me. He has proven nothing in the world of MMA, yet he is a favorite against MMA veteran Heath Herring. Herring may not have won every match he has ever had, but he has fought top class fighters such as: Evan Tanner, Vitor Belfort, Mark Kerr, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria, Igor Vovchanchyn, Fedor Emelianenko, and Mirko Filipovic. I don’t think Brock Lesnar is going to have anything that will surprise Herring, and I think Herring will eventually be able to use his experience to secure a submission much like Frank Mir did in Lesnar’s UFC debut. Lesnar’s only chance is to knock Herring out, and Herring hasn’t been knocked out his he fought Cro Cop in 2003.

I’ll take Herring in this fight, and I’ll make this my pick of the week.

Fun Fact: Brock Lesnar hates planes and gays

My Pick: Heath Herring (+190)

Welterweights:

Georges St. Pierre used to be one of my favorite fighters to cheer for. It may sound like MMA blasphemy, but the amount of whining that came from his camp trying to explain why he lost to Matt Serra really annoyed me. Maybe every word of it was true. I really don’t know, and I really don’t care. Now I can’t look at him without thinking of Sasha Baron Cohen’s character in Talledega Nights. But that has nothing to do with me handicapping this fight.

I’m taking Fitch in this fight, and I’ll tell you why:

• Fitch is undefeated in the UFC
• Fitch is a big underdog ($10 would win you $26)
• Fitch hasn’t lost in 5.5 years
• There are so many HUGE St. Pierre fans out there, that I don’t think this line could ever be right. +260 isn’t that extreme, but I’d put Fitch more around +180 or so

If it was even money I’d take St. Pierre, but just barely. For all of his great strengths St. Pierre is starting to show himself as more and more of a headcase.

My Pick: Jon Fitch (+260)

Week 4 Mid Week Pick Recap

Tuesday, April 1st, 2008

Here is a rundown of my hypothetical picks for Wednesday:

UFC Fight Night 13 (Broomfield Event Center, Colorado , 4:45 PM ET Wednesday, April 2nd)

Frank Edgar (-175)	$100 to win $57.14
Din Thomas (-160)	$100 to win $62.50
Ryan Roberts (+500)	$100 to win $500
Samy Schiavo (+400)	$100 to win $400
Roman Mitichyan (+135)	$100 to win $135
Anthony Johnson (+235)	$100 to win $235
Manny Gamburyan (-800)	$100 to win $12.50
Tim Boetsch (+160)	$100 to win $160
Kurt Pellegrino (+160)	$100 to win $160
James Irvin (+215)	$100 to win $215
Joe Lauzon (+180)	$100 to win $180
Karo Parisyan (-180)	$100 to win $55.54

The odds of a lot of these fights have moved. Here is a breakdown of where they are currently:

• Frank Edgar moved from -175 to -200. Good for me, but if I had to choose again at those odds I wouldn’t like that one bit. I don’t think I could recommend Edgar at -200. I’d wait and see if there was any movement before tomorrow night.
• Din Thomas moved from -160 to -180. I’m glad I took him at -160, but he is still a good bet at -180
• Roman Mitichyan moved from +135 to +150. Oops.
• Anthony Johnson moved from +235 to +205. Those odds are still good enough for me to take him.
• Tim Boetsch moved from +160 to +145. This is another move I don’t like. If I had to choose I would still take Boetsch at +145.
• Kurt Pellegrino moved from +160 to +130. With those odds I’d most likely take Diaz at -160
• James Irvin moved from +215 to +190. I still like him at those odds.
• Joe Lauzon moved from +180 to +160. I still like him as you will see below.

That’s a ton of movement, and it all seems to benefit me except for the Mitichyan fight. I don’t like it one bit. They say the majority of gamblers are losers, and having the majority agreeing with me doesn’t sit too well.

Lock of the Week (This is an extra bet)

Manny Gamburyan (-800)

$100 to win $12.50

The only chance Jeff Cox has is if Gamburyan injures himself again.

Value Bet of the Week (This is an extra bet)

Joe Lauzon (+160)

$100 to win $160

These aren’t the biggest odds, but I still think this is the most lopsided line (other than maybe the Samy Schiavo fight, but I don’t have the balls to recommend another bet on him).

To recap, I recommend 12 bets for tomorrow plus the 2 bonus bets. On the year I am up a hypothetical $150.53.

UFC Fight Night 13 Picks Part 2

Monday, March 31st, 2008

Bodoglife.com put the lines up for the rest of the Ultimate Fighting Championship Fight Night card. Here are my picks…

Lightweights:

Both of these fighters are undefeated, but Frank Edgar has definitely beat better opponents. Edgar’s three UFC victories were against Spencer Fisher (20-4), Mark Bocek (5-1), and Tyson Griffin (11-1). Maynard’s 2 UFC victories come against Joe Veras (4-3) and Dennis Silver (11-5). Both of these fighters have amateur wrestling backgrounds so they should have similar styles.

I like Edgar, because -175 seems like excellent odds for a fighter who has accomplished what he has.

My Pick: Frank Edgar ($100 to win $57.14)

Lightweights:

I think Din Thomas is going to be able to dominate this fight. Josh Neer is returning to the UFC after spending the last 18 months fighting in smaller promotions. I think the time away will help him, but he has never been successful in the UFC. I don’t think that he is going to be successful here. On the plus side, he does have a cool nickname.

One thing that has me slightly worried about Din is the fact that this is his first fight since he tore his meniscus in a fight against Kenny Florian. That was in September of last year, so hopefully he has had time to fully recover.

My Pick: Din Thomas ($100 to win $62.50)

Lightweights:

Marcus Aurelio has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. Aurelio is not a ranked lightweight. He has faced tougher opponents than Ryan Roberts has, but -800 seems like too much. I can’t bet on a fighter who has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. His only win over that period came against Luke Caudillo (14-9)

Let’s find some reasons why Ryan Roberts is going to win this fight:

1. He has won 2 in a row and 5 out of 6.
2. He has knockout power. 3 of his last 4 wins were by TKO
3. He’s the younger fighter. Maybe Aurelio will blow his knee out, because he’s an old man.
4. His link on the Wikipedia Fight Night 13 page goes to the baseball player Ryan Roberts. Maybe Aurelio has been watching Texas Rangers film to prepare. That could really throw him off.

My Pick: Ryan Roberts ($100 to win $500)

Lightweights:

I’m not going to lie. I didn’t even know there was a French Top Team, and now it looks like I’m going to bet on one of their fighters. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida is a good fighter, but I don’t see where the -600 comes from. Clay has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. That’s not good. Since the beginning of 2006 Clay’s record is 4-6.

Samy "I’m French" Schiavo has never fought in the United States before. He has won his last six fights, three by submission and three by (T)KO. That’s what I like to see. Hopefully his first trip to America is a successful one.

My Pick: Samy Schiavo ($100 to win $400)

Welterweights:

Sotiropoulos and Mitichyan are both veterans of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra. Sotiropoulos was defeated in the semi-finals by Tommy Speer, and Roman Mitichyan broke his elbow before the teams were even selected.

I’m going to take Mitichyan in this fight. In his UFC debut he defeated Dorian Price in 23 seconds by submission. Four of his five wins come by way of submission. Hopefully he will be able to use his superior submission skills to take Sotiropoulos out.

My Pick: Roman Mitichyan ($100 to win $135)

Welterweights:

Tommy Speer made it to the finals of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra, but he lost in the finals to Mac Danzig at the 2:01 mark by submission. Before that Tommy Speer had never faced any great opponents.

Anthony Johnson also has never faced any great opponents, but he did knock out Chad "The Grinder" Reiner (17-3) at UFC Fight Night 10 in 13 seconds. That tells me he has the power to upset Tommy Speer

My Pick: Anthony Johnson ($100 to win $235)

Lightweights:

Jeff Cox is a 39 year old police officer. Manvel Gamburyan is a 26 year old lightweight who should have won The Ultimate Fighter 5, but he dislocated his shoulder during the fight. Gamburyan will win this fight unless his shoulder pops out again. At +500 there needs to be a 16.7% chance of his shoulder dislocating to make a bet on Cox correct. I don’t think the odds are that good.

My Pick: Manny Gamburyan ($100 to win $12.50)

Light Heavyweights:

Matt "The Deaf Guy From The Ultimate Fighter" Hamill vs. Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch. Both fighters are ex-amateur wrestlers who like to strike. Both have had similar careers, beating bad opponents are losing to great ones. I like Boetsch in this fight simply because of the odds. If a KO comes it really could go either way.

My Pick: Tim Boetsch ($100 to win $160)

Lightweights:

These fighters have similar styles. Both are submission experts who occasionally score a win by knockout. I like Diaz and think that he deserves to be the favorite, but I’m not going to take him. Pellegrino has only lost to great fighters in the UFC (Joe Stevenson and Drew Fickett). Diaz in undefeated in the UFC, but I see his youth as a possible weakness. Along with the extra endurance that being so young brings, comes some extra stupidity. I think that gives Pellegrino a good chance to catch Diaz in this fight.

My Pick: Kurt Pellegrino ($100 to win $160)

Light Heavyweights:

I like Irvin in this fight. His UFC record is better than it seems. One of his losses came becase of a knee injury. Irvin is also an ex WEC heavyweight champion. Both of these guys are knockout artists (Alexander has 5 KO’s, Irvin has 9) so this should be a fun fight.

Fun facts of the night (taken from Wikipedia): "[Houston Alexander] is also a well-known hip-hop artist who is from North Omaha, Nebraska." Really? Well known by what standards?

"Alexander has also been vocal about Omaha’s lack of support for its hip hop artists." I hate to call anything a lost cause, but trying to get Omaha to embrace hip hop could possibly be just that.

My Pick: James Irvin ($100 to win $215)

The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks DREAM 1

Thursday, March 13th, 2008

On Saturday the first ever DREAM mixed martial arts event will take place. DREAM 1 will feature the opening round of an excellent 16 man lightweight grand prix. So without delay, here are my picks for the 1st round of the grand prix. All of these lines come from bodoglife.com at about 12 PM Central Time on Thurday.

Read the rest of this entry »

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