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Ultimate Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer Quick Thoughts
Thursday, September 18th, 2008- I wish the telecast would have been three hours. Both the knockout of the night (Alessio Sakara) and submission of the night (Wilson Gouveia) occurred on the dark undercard
- Houston Alexander’s stint in the UFC has to be over, right? Maybe you can keep him around to fight other strikers, but a fighter with three consecutive losses shouldn’t be in the UFC.
- I didn’t believe all of the hype about Clay Guida before yesterday, but he seems to be legit. I’ve seen young (18-21 year old) fighters with his kind of energy, but to have his energy at 27 is absurd.
- Nate Diaz is going to be insanely good. He’s far from unbeatable now, but give him a few more years of experience and he will be among the very best of the lightweight division.
- Did anybody watch the premiere of The Ultimate Fighter afterwords? How stupid is Clay Guida’s brother?
- If you would have put equal money on my four picks from last night you would have shown a 13.75% profit.
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer
Friday, September 12th, 2008
On Wednesday September 17th UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer will air live on Spike TV. The event takes place at the Omaha Civic Center in Omaha, Nebraska. It will serve as a lead in to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir.
Lightweights:
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Name (Odds)
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||
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9-2-0 (4-0 in UFC)
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Record
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24-6-1 (3-3 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
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Team
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Miletich Martial Arts
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23 Years Old
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Age
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25 Years Old
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It’s hard for me to know if Nate Diaz is more talented than his brother Nick, but he’s pretty damn close. Nick Diaz defeated Josh Neer by submission in 2006 after Diaz had lost his previous three UFC contests. Nate Diaz is undefeated in the UFC and at 23 years old you have to think that the best is yet to come from his. The only caveat I have in making Diaz a heavy favorite is the fact he was losing to Kurt Pellegrino in April before he was able to submit him with a triangle choke. I always hate picking the favorite, so let’s take a quick look at the math.
For a bet on Diaz to be smart at -200 he would need to have a 66.7% chance of winning. For a bet on Neer to be smart at +170 he would need to have a 37.1% chance of winning. With odds the way they are I am leaning towards Diaz, but I am willing to wait for a few days to see which way the line heads.
My Pick: (Tenatively) Nate Diaz at -200