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Post UFC 88 Quick Thoughts
Tuesday, September 9th, 2008- Ryo Chonan won a slightly controversial decision against Roan Carneiro. I’m not saying that MMA is anywhere near as corrupt as boxing when it comes to judges decisions, but it’s never a good idea ot bet against someone the UFC wants to win.
- Jason Lambert vs. Jason MacDonald: MacDonald won this fight, but I still like my reasoning behind picking Lambert.
- Kurt Pellegrino vs. Thiago Tavares: Pellegrino managed to fight an intelligent fight and kept himself from being submitted. If he learns to fight more consistently like that he could end up being a top class fighter.
- Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim vs. Matt Brown: Dong Hyun Kim won a split decision. I picked Brown, but I’ll live with my big underdog losing a split decision.
- Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Marquardt: Marquardt won this fight early into the first round, but for a while it looked like Kampmann had a chance. Given another opportunity I might rethink picking Kampmann in this fight.
- Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares: Not a lot to say here. Henderson won a fight that he needed to win, and he did it in dominant fashion.
- Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill: My pick Matt Hamill was pretty much dominated this whole fight. He had a chance in the first round after he opened a huge cut above Franklin’s eye, but he wasn’t able to capitalize on it. In retrospect I probably should have thought twice about picking Hamill in this fight.
- Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans: Rashad Evans fought a smart fight, but I have a feeling that the UFC is going to go out of their way to find someone to take Evans out. Rashad Evans tends to fight ridiculously boring fights, and nobody in the UFC wants to see him win anything. Maybe his huge knockout on Saturday will go a long way in helping to fix his image.
The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks UFC 87
Thursday, August 7th, 2008Ultimate Fighting Championship live from Minneapolis, MN Saturday August 9th at 10 PM ET!!! Let’s get to it.
Welterweights:
|
Luke Cummo (-140)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory (+110)
|
|
6-5-0 (3-3 in UFC)
|
Record
|
8-1-0 (1-1 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Serra Jiu-Jitsu
|
Team
|
|
|
28
|
Age
|
21
|
Luke Cummo is 6-5 with no notable victories, yet he’s the favorite? Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory is 8-1 with his only loss coming against old school Shooto/Pancrase/PRIDE veteran Akihiro Gono. I’ll take "The Barn Cat" in this one.
I only have one question. Why call yourself "Barn Cat"? I like the uniqueness, but don’t see the fear inspiring potential.
My Pick: Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory (+110)
Heavyweights:
|
Cheick Kongo (-500)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Dan Evensen (+350)
|
|
11-4-1 (4-2 in UFC)
|
Record
|
10-2-0 (0-0 in UFC)
|
|
France
|
Country
|
Norway
|
|
Quoniam Gym
|
Team
|
|
|
33 Years Old
|
Age
|
34 Years Old
|
I don’t know what to think about Cheick Kongo. He has some impressive victories in the UFC including back-to-back wins over Assuerio Silva and the enormous headcase Mirko Cro Cop. That said, I think he looked terrible in his most recent fight against Heath Herring.
The UFC appears to like Kongo because they are putting him in the ring with newcomer Dan Evensen. Evensen’s most recent fight was a victory over Konstantin Gluhov (2-2) for BodogFight in November. Evensen has no notable victories, but six of his ten victories come by way of knockout. It doesn’t take a lot for me to take a fighter at +350, and Evensen’s knockout ability is enough for me.
By the way, Kongo trains at Quoniam Gym which is also Quinton "Rampage" Jackson’s gym. Maybe Rampage’s temporary insanity had a negative effect on his training?
My Pick: Dan Evensen (+350)
Light Heavyweights:
|
Andre Gusmao (-215)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Jon Jones (+175)
|
|
5-0-0 (0-0 in UFC)
|
Record
|
5-0-0 (0-0 in UFC)
|
|
Brazil
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team
|
||
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
21 Years Old
|
Two undefeated guys here. Neither with UFC caliber experience. Let’s break them down:
Gusmao is an IFL veteran who went 4-0 in the now defunct promotion. Gusmao has two notable victories over Mike Ciesnolevicz (15-3). Gusmao is 31 frickin’ years old. Why did he start his MMA career so late? Gusmao has one of those mean looking Brazilian shoulder tattoos.
Jon Jones is the youngest fighter currently under contract with the UFC. Jones has no notable victories. Jones was a JUCO National Wrestling Champion. Jones has a 4 fight deal with the UFC, so they at least see some potential in him.
Straight up I would take Gusmao in this one, but with the odds I’m going to go with Jones. He hasn’t been tested like Gusmao has, but his strong wrestling background and youth (read: extra energy) could lead to victory.
My Pick: Jon Jones (+175)
Welterweights:
|
Chris Wilson (-330)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Steve Bruno (+260)
|
|
13-4-0 (0-1 in UFC)
|
Record
|
11-3-0 (0-0 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team Quest
|
Team
|
American Top Team
|
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
26 Years Old
|
I don’t like this fight.
Wilson has the better pedigree, but in his UFC debut he was fed to the wolves when he had to fight Jon Fitch. Before his UFC debut, Wilson had some fights in the IFL with his most notable victory probably coming over Rory Markham. If you can’t remember who Markham is, he is the fighter who was awarded the Knockout of the Night for his headkick against Brodie Farber at the UFC event on July 19th.
Before becoming an MMA fighter, Steve Bruno was a Naval Air Crewman / Rescue Swimmer for the U.S. Navy. He has never faced any great competition, but has won four fights in a row. He does have stopping power with six of his wins coming by knockout and four by submission.
Straight up I would take Wilson, but I am not going to take a fighter at -330 who is 0-1 in the UFC.
My Pick: Steve Bruno (+260)
Welterweights:
|
Ben Saunders (-260)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Ryan Thomas (+200)
|
|
5-0-2 (1-0 in UFC)
|
Record
|
9-1-0 (0-0 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
American Top Team
|
Team
|
?
|
|
25 Years Old
|
Age
|
?
|
Bodoglife has Ben Saunders listed as "Ben Sanders". I don’t like that. I also didn’t like Saunders in The Ultimate Fighter. Normally that would be enough reason for me to take Thomas, but get a hold of this: Thomas fought three weeks ago. Not three months ago, but three weeks ago. In fact, Thomas has had five fights this year. Although I respect Thomas for his willingness to get out there and work, that many fights can’t be a good thing when you are facing a fighter who is officially undefeated. I’ll take the favorite here.
My Pick: Ben Saunders (-260)
Lightweights:
|
Manny Gamburyan (-325)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Rob Emerson (+250)
|
|
8-2-0 (2-1 in UFC)
|
Record
|
7-6-0 (1-0 in UFC w/ 1 NC)
|
|
Armenia
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team
|
Team Oyama
|
|
|
27 Years Old
|
Age
|
27 Years Old
|
I love Manny Gamburyan. Want to know why? Skip ahead to 2:10 of this video:
A lot of people might see that as cheap. I say grow a pair. Does the ref not say at the beginning of every fight, "Protect yourself at all times." Just because it has become a tradition to touch gloves a SECOND TIME to start a fight doesn’t mean an intelligent fighter should pay any attention to that. How did that stupid tradition start anyway? What if I wanted to touch gloves a third time or do whatever they call the traditional Muay Thai ceremonial stuff after the fight started. Would the other fighter be declared cheap if he took a shot at me?
Gamburyan only has 2 losses in his career. One was against Sean Sherk in 2001. He was also beat by Nate Diaz in 2007 when he dislocated his shoulder during their fight.
Rob Emerson is a scumbag, and not a very good fighter. The only way I see Gamburyan losing is if his shoulder slips out. I’ll assume (hope? pray?) that the shoulder problem was a one time thing and pick Gamburyan in this fight
My Pick: Manny Gamburyan (-325)
Middleweights:
|
Demian Maia (-260)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Jason MacDonald (+200)
|
|
7-0-0 (2-0 in UFC)
|
Record
|
20-9-0 (4-2 in UFC)
|
|
Brazil
|
Country
|
Canada
|
|
Team
|
Pro Camp
|
|
|
30 Years Old
|
Age
|
33 Years Old
|
Bodoglife.com lists this as a fight of "Damian" Maia vs. Jason "McDonald", but what can you do? Can you really expect the employees of the largest sportsbook on the web to spell check the names of the fighters.
Demian Maia is a world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner. In his first two UFC fights he won Submission of the Night. Jason MacDonald usually wins his fights by submission, but against a fighter of Maia’s caliber I don’t think a submission will be possible. I think the UFC is tossing Maia a bone here and trying to build up his reputation before putting him in the cage against a figher whose style could cause him trouble. I see Maia easily winning this fight by submission.
My Pick: Demian "Damian" Maia (-260)
Lightweights:
|
Kenny Florian (-165)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Roger Huerta (+135)
|
|
9-3-0 (7-2 in UFC)
|
Record
|
20-1-1 (6-0 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team
|
||
|
32 Years Old
|
Age
|
25 Years Old
|
This has the potential to be a great fight.
This fight can really go either way, but I am going to take Roger Huerta for a couple of reasons. First, I always think the lines for The Ultimate Fighter alumni tend to be a little inflated. I think that is the case here also. Florian is a great fighter, and in general, he has faced tougher competition than Roger Huera, but making him -165 seems a little steep to me. Huerta is undefeated in the UFC, and he hasn’t lost since 2001. For those reasons I am going to have to go with Roger Huerta in this one.
Fun Fact From Wikipedia: "On April 5, 2007, at UFC Fight Night 9 Florian defeated Japanese fighter Dokonjonosuke Mishima via rear naked choke submission. In the interview after this fight, Florian can be seen pretending to drink Xyience energy drink. The can was clearly unopened."
My Pick: Roger Huerta (+135)
Heavyweights:
|
Brock Lesnar (-240)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Heath "The Texas Crazy Horse" Herring (+190)
|
|
1-1-0 (0-1 in UFC)
|
Record
|
28-13-0 (2-2 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Minnesota Martial Arts Academy
|
Team
|
Las Vegas Combat Club
|
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
Brock "WWE Champion" Lesnar being the favorite in this fight amuses me. He has proven nothing in the world of MMA, yet he is a favorite against MMA veteran Heath Herring. Herring may not have won every match he has ever had, but he has fought top class fighters such as: Evan Tanner, Vitor Belfort, Mark Kerr, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria, Igor Vovchanchyn, Fedor Emelianenko, and Mirko Filipovic. I don’t think Brock Lesnar is going to have anything that will surprise Herring, and I think Herring will eventually be able to use his experience to secure a submission much like Frank Mir did in Lesnar’s UFC debut. Lesnar’s only chance is to knock Herring out, and Herring hasn’t been knocked out his he fought Cro Cop in 2003.
I’ll take Herring in this fight, and I’ll make this my pick of the week.
Fun Fact: Brock Lesnar hates planes and gays
My Pick: Heath Herring (+190)
Welterweights:
|
Georges St. Pierre (-340)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Jon Fitch (+260)
|
|
16-2-0 (10-2 in UFC)
|
Record
|
17-2 (8-0 in UFC)
|
|
Canada
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
BTT Canada
|
Team
|
|
|
27 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
Georges St. Pierre used to be one of my favorite fighters to cheer for. It may sound like MMA blasphemy, but the amount of whining that came from his camp trying to explain why he lost to Matt Serra really annoyed me. Maybe every word of it was true. I really don’t know, and I really don’t care. Now I can’t look at him without thinking of Sasha Baron Cohen’s character in Talledega Nights. But that has nothing to do with me handicapping this fight.
I’m taking Fitch in this fight, and I’ll tell you why:
- Fitch is undefeated in the UFC
- Fitch is a big underdog ($10 would win you $26)
- Fitch hasn’t lost in 5.5 years
- There are so many HUGE St. Pierre fans out there, that I don’t think this line could ever be right. +260 isn’t that extreme, but I’d put Fitch more around +180 or so
If it was even money I’d take St. Pierre, but just barely. For all of his great strengths St. Pierre is starting to show himself as more and more of a headcase.
My Pick: Jon Fitch (+260)
UFC 83 Undercard: Joe Doerksen vs. Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald
Wednesday, April 16th, 2008Middleweights:
|
Jason MacDonald
|
Name (Odds)
|
Joe Doerksen
|
|
19-9-0 (3-2 in UFC)
|
Record
|
39-11-0 (1-4 in UFC)
|
|
Canada
|
Country
|
Canada
|
|
Pro Camp
|
Team
|
|
|
32 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
Jason MacDonald has had a pretty good run in the UFC. His only 2 UFC losses came at the hands of Rich Franklin (#3 middleweight in the world) and Yushin Okami (#8 middleweight in the world). Joe Doerksen is a veteran of pretty much every MMA organization you can think of (UFC, IFL, WEC, DEEP, KOTC, Rings). He even signed a contract to fight for PRIDE before the UFC took PRIDE over. The line for this fight isn’t out yet, but I wouldn’t take Doerksen at anything less than +600. This is because MacDonald and Doerksen fought in 2005, and MacDonald was able to submist Doerksen with a rear naked choke. Add that to his terrible UFC record and Doerksen has to be one of the biggest underdogs of the night.
MMA Links of the Week
Saturday, April 12th, 2008No fights to bet on this weekend, so I’m going to start a new feature: Links of the Week. These are not advertisers, these are just sites and articles that I enjoy and want to share.
mmascraps.com – Ultimate MMA Videos. And excellent blog where you can literally find hundreds of hours of MMA fights and documentaries. My current personal favorite videos on the site are the documentary following Cro Cop leading up to his fight against Fedor Emelianenko, and the Decade of PRIDE video. If you’re a big fan of MMA this is a good site to visit fairly often, because they sometimes link to videos that are removed quickly if you know what I mean.
Cage Potato – I read lots of MMA blogs, but I think cagepotato.com is by far the most entertaining. The authors on the site post constantly (over 50 posts in the last week), and they are the funniest MMA blog around.
Sherdog, MMA Weekly – I use both of these sites as my primary source for breaking MMA news. They both do a good job with exclusive reporting, but for the love of your sanity stay away from the Sherdog forums. I honestly don’t think there is a bigger collection of idiots to be found anywhere in the world.
Petition to Stop YAMMA – I know this goes against my warning to stay away from the Sherdog forums, but check this post out. The poster Sharkk from Illinois (why do you have to sully my state’s good name?) started a petition to try and get the New Jersey Athletic Control Board to stop sactioning YAMMA events. I’ve read his post a few times looking for any sign that this is a joke, and I must say that I am pretty sure Sharkk is being completly serious. I’m not sure how individual state athletic commissions work, but I’m pretty sure a petition started by a (wo?)man who calls him/herself Sharkk is not going to have much influence.
Quick Matt Serra Quote – I don’t like mmamania.com. Most of their posters seem pretentious, and their actual articles sound like they wouldn’t be out of place on the Sherdog forums. But I had to include this link. This is by far the funniest healine I have ever read on the site.
Top 10 Dream Matches – I have to admit that I just found this site, but I almost completely agree with this list of 10 fights that need to happen. The article is from November so I’d tweak the list somewhat to account for what has happened over the last few months, but other than that this guy is right on.
Bow Tie Betting – Week 4 Results
Tuesday, April 8th, 2008| Fighter | Fighter | Hypothetical Bet Size | Event | Winner | Running Total |
| Anthony Johnson (+235) | Tommy Speer (-295) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Anthony Johnson by KO | +$235 |
| George Sotiropoulos (-165) | Roman Mitichyan (+135) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Sotiropoulos wins by TKO | +$135 |
| Clay Guida (-600) | Samy Schiavo (+400) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Guida wins by TKO | +$35 |
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | Jeff Cox (+500) | $200 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Gamburyan wins by submission | +$60 |
| Marcus Aurelio (-800) | Ryan Roberts (+500) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Aurelio wins by submission | -$40 |
| Din Thomas (-160) | Josh "The Dentist" Neer (+130) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Neer wins by unanimous decision | -$140 |
| Houston Alexander (-275) | James Irvin (+215) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Irvin wins by TKO | +$75 |
| Nate Diaz (-200) | Kurt Pellegrino (+160) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Diaz wins by submission | -$25 |
| Matt Hamill (-200) | Tim Boetsch (+160) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Hamill by TKO | -$125 |
| Karo Parisyan (-180) | Thiago Alves (+150) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Alves by TKO | -$225 |
| Gray Maynard (+145) | Frank Edgar (-175) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Edgar by decision | -$325 |
| Kenny Florian (-220) | Joe Lauzon (+180) | $200 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Florian by TKO | -$525 |
| Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko (-500) | Jamal "The Suit" Patterson (+300) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Matyushenko by TKO | -$515 |
| Wagnney Fabiano (-650) | Shad Lierley (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Fabiano by KO | -$507.31 |
| Jay Hieron (-330) | Mark Miller (+260) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Hieron by TKO | -$557.31 |
| Carmelo Marrero (-155) | Mike Ciesnolevicz (+125) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | NO CONTEST (CUT) | -$557.31 |
| Bart Palaszewski (-200) | Jim Miller (+160) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Miller by unanimous decision | -$477.31 |
| Delson Heleno (-260) | Brad Blackburn (+200) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Blackburn by KO | -$527.31 |
| Alex Schoenauer (-650) | Brendan Barrett (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Schoenauer by split decision | -$577.31 |
| Chris Horodecki (-650) | Nate Lamotte (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Horodecki by unanimous decision | -$569.62 |
Week 4 was a terrible week. I made two big mistakes I ended up paying for. First off, betting against Matt Hamill was a mistake. I let my personal dislike for the man influence my judgement. That’s never a good thing. Secondly, betting on Karo Parisyan was a big mistake. I should have just gone with the underdog.
I guess I can take solace in the fact the a lot of bettors went down with me. The way the lines moved during the week showed all of the action going towards my fighters.
International Fight League (IFL) April 4, 2008 Picks
Friday, April 4th, 2008Light Heavyweights:
|
Carmelo Marrero (-155)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Mike Ciesnolevicz (+125)
|
|
7-2-0
|
Record
|
13-3
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
American Top Team
|
Team
|
Miletich Martial Arts
|
|
27 Years Old
|
Age
|
28 Years Old
|
Carmelo Marrero is a veteran of the UFC where he earned a victory against Cheick Kongo (11-4-1) at UFC 64. He would go on to lose his next two UFC bouts. This is his first fight in the IFL
Mike Ciesnolevicz is an IFL veteran, but not an extremely successful one. His record in the IFL stands at only 5-3. I’ll take the UFC veteran in this one.
My Pick: Carmelo Marrero ($50 to win $32.25)
Lightweights:
|
Bart Palaszewski (-200)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Jim Miller (+160)
|
|
28-10-0
|
Record
|
10-1-0
|
|
Poland
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team Curran
|
Team
|
|
|
24 Years Old
|
Age
|
24 Years Old
|
Bart "Bartimus" Palaszewski is an IFL veteran with an overall IFL record of 8-3. One problem I have with Palaszewski is that he has lost 2 fights in a row. Additionally his IFL record may not quite be as impressive as it sounds. Four of his IFL wins have come by way of split decision.
Jim Miller fought his first professional fight in November of 2005. Since then he has compiled the impressive record of 10-1. His only loss came against Frank Edgar (8-0) by decision. Bartimus is no Frank Edgar. I think Miller has a good chance to take this one by submission.
My Pick: Jim Miller ($50 to win $80)
Welterweights:
|
Delson Heleno (-260)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Brad Blackburn (+200)
|
|
13-4-0
|
Record
|
11-9-1
|
|
Brazil
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Gracie Fusion
|
Team
|
ATT West
|
|
30 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
Delson Heleno is an IFL veteran with a record of 6-3 in the IFL. Two of his losses arose from unusual circumstances. In April of 2006 he was disqualified because of an illegal upkick, and in December of 2007 he was forced to quit because of a leg injury.
Brad Blackburn isn’t a great fighter. He has lost 6 of his last 9 fights. I think Delson Heleno should destroy him, unless he does something stupid and gets disqualified or gets hurt. -260 seems very generous to me.
My Pick: Delson Heleno ($50 to win $19.23)
IFL Light Heavyweight Championship:
|
Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko (-500)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Jamal "The Suit" Patterson (+300)
|
|
20-3-0
|
Record
|
4-1-0
|
|
Belarus
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
RAW Team
|
Team
|
|
|
37 Years Old
|
Age
|
34 Years Old
|
Vladimir Matyushenko has lost 3 times in his career. Once to Andrei Arlovski, once to Tito Ortiz, and once to Vernon White. Will Jamal Patterson become the fourth legend* to defeat The Janitor? I can say with confidence, no he will not.
My Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko ($50 to win $10)
* = maybe I’m stretching a little calling Vernon "Tiger" White a legend
IFL Welterweight Chamionship:
|
Jay Hieron (-330)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Mark Miller (+260)
|
|
14-4-0
|
Record
|
8-2-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Xtreme Couture
|
Team
|
Hellhouse
|
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
27 Years Old
|
Mark Miller has defeated a fighter better than Jay Hieron (Josh Neer 23-6-1), Jay Hieron has lost to a fighter worse than Mark Miller (Brad Blackburn 11-9-1). By that logic, Mark Miller has a chance to defeat Jay Hieron.
My Pick: Mark Miller ($50 to win $130)
IFL Lightweight Championship:
|
Wagnney Fabiano (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Shad Lierley (+450)
|
|
9-1-0
|
Record
|
2-1-0
|
|
Brazil
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Nova Uniao
|
Team
|
|
|
32 Years Old
|
Age
|
27 Years Old
|
This is an odd match up. Wagnney Fabiano is a great Brazilian submission artist, and Shad Lierley is a newcomer to MMA. Fabriano trained in Brazil under Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira. Lierley is an ex Division III collegiate wrestler. I don’t know what Lierley did to deserve this bout, but I think Fabiano is going to be able to submit him. Fabiano is 5-0 in the IFL with all of his wins coming by submissions. Newcomers to the sport of MMA always have a hard time stopping submissions when facing submission experts.
My Pick: Wagnney Fabiano ($50 to win $7.69)
Lightweights:
|
Chris Horodecki (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Nate Lamotte (+450)
|
|
11-1-0
|
Record
|
6-2-0
|
|
Canada
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team Tompkins
|
Team
|
|
|
20 Years Old
|
Age
|
Chris Horodecki was supposed to be the golden boy of the IFL. He was 11-0 when Ryan Schultz knocked him out in November of last year. So to rebuild Horodecki’s confidence the IFL found some guy off the street for him to pound. Nate Lamotte has been fighting in regional New England promotions for two years. He has only defeated one fighter with a winning record (Mark Raposa 4-3). I hate to say it, but I don’t see why this line is only -650. I guess it is because Horodecki is coming off the first loss of his career, and when that happens there is always a chance that a fighter will suffer a case of Roy Jones fever.
My Pick: Chris Horodecki ($50 to win $7.69)
Light Heavyweights:
|
Alex Schoenauer (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Brendan Barrett (+450)
|
|
12-9-0
|
Record
|
3-2
|
|
Argentina
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Xtreme Couture
|
Team
|
|
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
26 Years Old
|
I like this line. Alex Schoenauer has lost two in a row, four out of six, and has an IFL record of 4-5. Bredan Barrett has only fought in smaller promotions, but I really don’t care. Schoenauer has done nothing to earn his -650 line. Schoenauer will probably win the fight, but at +450 Barrett only needs a 19% chance of winning to make picking him a profitable bet. I think he is at least that good.
My Pick: Brendan Barrett ($50 to win $225)
Week 4 Mid Week Pick Recap
Tuesday, April 1st, 2008Here is a rundown of my hypothetical picks for Wednesday:
UFC Fight Night 13 (Broomfield Event Center, Colorado , 4:45 PM ET Wednesday, April 2nd)
| Frank Edgar (-175) | $100 to win $57.14 |
| Din Thomas (-160) | $100 to win $62.50 |
| Ryan Roberts (+500) | $100 to win $500 |
| Samy Schiavo (+400) | $100 to win $400 |
| Roman Mitichyan (+135) | $100 to win $135 |
| Anthony Johnson (+235) | $100 to win $235 |
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | $100 to win $12.50 |
| Tim Boetsch (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
| Kurt Pellegrino (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
| James Irvin (+215) | $100 to win $215 |
| Joe Lauzon (+180) | $100 to win $180 |
| Karo Parisyan (-180) | $100 to win $55.54 |
The odds of a lot of these fights have moved. Here is a breakdown of where they are currently:
- Frank Edgar moved from -175 to -200. Good for me, but if I had to choose again at those odds I wouldn’t like that one bit. I don’t think I could recommend Edgar at -200. I’d wait and see if there was any movement before tomorrow night.
- Din Thomas moved from -160 to -180. I’m glad I took him at -160, but he is still a good bet at -180
- Roman Mitichyan moved from +135 to +150. Oops.
- Anthony Johnson moved from +235 to +205. Those odds are still good enough for me to take him.
- Tim Boetsch moved from +160 to +145. This is another move I don’t like. If I had to choose I would still take Boetsch at +145.
- Kurt Pellegrino moved from +160 to +130. With those odds I’d most likely take Diaz at -160
- James Irvin moved from +215 to +190. I still like him at those odds.
- Joe Lauzon moved from +180 to +160. I still like him as you will see below.
That’s a ton of movement, and it all seems to benefit me except for the Mitichyan fight. I don’t like it one bit. They say the majority of gamblers are losers, and having the majority agreeing with me doesn’t sit too well.
Lock of the Week (This is an extra bet)
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | $100 to win $12.50 |
The only chance Jeff Cox has is if Gamburyan injures himself again.
Value Bet of the Week (This is an extra bet)
| Joe Lauzon (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
These aren’t the biggest odds, but I still think this is the most lopsided line (other than maybe the Samy Schiavo fight, but I don’t have the balls to recommend another bet on him).
To recap, I recommend 12 bets for tomorrow plus the 2 bonus bets. On the year I am up a hypothetical $150.53.
Bow Tie Betting – Week 3 Results
Sunday, March 30th, 2008| Fighter | Fighter | Hypothetical Bet Size | Event | Winner | Running Total |
| Logan Clark (-325) | Scott Harper (+250) | $100 | WEC 33 | Logan Clark by TKO | +$30.76 |
| Kenji Osawa (-120) | Chris Manuel (+110) | $50 | WEC 33 | Decision DRAW | +$30.76 |
| Richard Crunkilton Jr (-240) | Sergio Gomez (+190) | $50 | WEC 33 | Rich Crunkilton by Unanimous Decision | -$19.24 |
| Brock Larson (-300) | John Alessio (+240) | $50 | WEC 33 | Brock Larson by DQ (Illegal Knee) | -$69.24 |
| Hiromitsu Miura (-170) | Blas Avena (+140) | $50 | WEC 33 | Hiromitsu Miura by TKO | -$119.24 |
| Steve Cantwell (+115) | Tim McKenzie (-140) | $50 | WEC 33 | Steve Cantwell by Submission | -$61.74 |
| Marcus Hicks (-130) | Ed Ratcliff (EVEN) | $50 | WEC 33 | Marcus Hicks by Submission | -$111.74 |
| Chael Sonnen (-490) | Bryan Baker (+290) | $50 | WEC 33 | Chael Sonnen by Unanimous Decision | -$161.74 |
| Brian “All American” Stann (-180) | Doug “Rhino” Marshall (+150) | $50 | WEC 33 | Brian Stann by TKO | -$133.97 |
| Gilbert Melendez (-650) | Gabe Lemley (+450) | $50 | EliteXC/Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Le | Gilbert Melendez by TKO | -$183.97 |
| Frank Shamrock (-220) | Cung Le (+180) | $50 | EliteXC/Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Le | Cung Le by TKO | -$93.97 |
So…. this was a bad week. WEC 33 killed me. 7 out of 8 favorites won. That’s pretty ridiculous. My lock of the week Logan Clark came through. So my locks of the week are now 2/2. Cung Le was able to defeat Shamrock in what I consider to be the best fight of the week. They went to war, but Cung Le was able to pull out a victory after breaking Shamrock’s arm in the third round.
The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks EliteXC/Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Le
Monday, March 24th, 2008This EliteXC/Strikeforce event is scheduled for March 29th, 2008 and it will be broadcast live on Showtime at 9 PM ET. I already picked the Shamrock vs. Le fight a few days ago.
Middleweights:
|
Joey Villasenor (-210)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Evangelista Santos (+170)
|
|
24-6-0
|
Record
|
16-11-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
Brazil
|
|
Jackson’s Submission Fighting
|
Team
|
Chute Boxe
|
|
32 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
Joey Villasenor is an excellent fighter. He is 18-3 since December 2002. His only losses in that period came against Ryo Chonan (one of the few fighers who has defeated Anderson Silva), Robbie Lawler (15-4), and Murilo "Ninja" Rua (Shogun’s brother).
Evangelista Santos is an average fighter with no great wins and a history of getting knocked out. 7 of his losses have come by either KO or TKO. That’s good for Villasenor who has 10 KOs/TKOs in his career.
My Pick: Joey Villasenor ($50 to win $23.80)
Lightweights:
|
Gilbert Melendez (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Gabe Lemley (+450)
|
|
13-1-0
|
Record
|
11-6-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Fairtex GYM
|
Team
|
?
|
|
25 Years Old
|
Age
|
?
|
Gilbert Melendez is the #6 lightweight in the world. His only loss was against the #5 lightweight in the world.
Gabe Lemley is an average fighter who has won five fights in a row. He also has some knockout power (4 KOs in his career). That’s enough for me at +450
My Pick: Gabe Lemley ($50 to win $225)
Welterweights:
|
Nick Diaz (-550)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Jae Suk Lim (+350)
|
|
15-7-0
|
Record
|
9-3-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
South Korea
|
|
Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
|
Team
|
Jeongsim Gym
|
|
24 Years Old
|
Age
|
28 Years Old
|
I think Nick Diaz is an overrated fighter. He has had some big wins in his career: Drew Fickett, Robbie Lawler, Takanori Gomi (overturned because Diaz failed a drug test for marijuana), but he has one loss that really stands out to me. His most recent fight was a loss against Karl James Noons. Noons is a decent fighter with an overall record of 6-2, but Noons has no big wins other the Diaz fight.
Jae Suk Lim is a decent fighter. He has won two fights in a row, and only one of his wins is by decision. That is enough for me to pick him over Diaz who just possibly might be turning into a headcase.
My Pick: Jae Suk Lim ($50 to win $175)
Welterweights:
|
Jake Shields (-500)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Drew Fickett (+300)
|
|
20-4-1
|
Record
|
32-5-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
|
Team
|
Arizona Combat Sports
|
|
29 Years Old
|
Age
|
28 Years Old
|
Jake Shields is the #7 welterweight in the world, but I still think this line is odd. Shields has won nine in a row and is an excellent fighter, but Drew Fickett is a pretty good fighter too. Fickett is a UFC veteran with wins against Josh Koscheck, Keita Nakamura (14-3-2), Kurt Pellegrino (11-3-0), Josh Neer (23-6-1), and other good fighters. I don’t see what he did to deserve his unbelieveable +300 odds.
My Pick: Drew Fickett ($50 to win $150)
The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks Hayato Sakurai vs. Hidetaka Monma
Thursday, March 13th, 2008DREAM 1 offers a couple of non-tournament fights. The only one that you can currently find odds for on bodoglife.com is the Hayato Sakurai vs. Hidetaka Monma fight.
| Hayato Sakurai (-800) | Name (Odds) | Hidetaka Monma (+500) |
| 31 – 7 – 2 | Record | 14 – 7 – 3 |
| Japan | Country | Japan |
| Mach Dojo | Team | Wajyutsu Keisyukai A3 |
| 32 Years Old | Age | 34 Years Old |
Hayato Sakurai is a good fighter, but I don’t believe he is -800 good. Sakurai has won 8 of his last 9 with his only loss during that period coming against Takanori Gomi (MMA #1 lightweight). But before that Sakurai was not the most consistent fighter in the world. His worst recent defeat came at Bushido 5 to Crosley Gracie (2-2). Of Sakurai’s 7 losses, 3 came by KO or TKO, 3 by decision, and 1 by submission.
Hidetaka Monma is a decent fighter with acceptable submission and knockout skills. 8 of Monma’s wins are by submission and 2 are by KO or TKO. I think this coupled with the fact that Monma is naturally the larger fighter (Sherdog.com lists him at 185 pounds and Sakurai at 161) will give him a chance at +500
My Pick: Hidetaka Monma ($50 to win $250)