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International Fight League (IFL) April 4, 2008 Picks
Friday, April 4th, 2008Light Heavyweights:
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Carmelo Marrero (-155)
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Name (Odds)
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Mike Ciesnolevicz (+125)
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7-2-0
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Record
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13-3
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United States
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Country
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United States
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American Top Team
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Team
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Miletich Martial Arts
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27 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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Carmelo Marrero is a veteran of the UFC where he earned a victory against Cheick Kongo (11-4-1) at UFC 64. He would go on to lose his next two UFC bouts. This is his first fight in the IFL
Mike Ciesnolevicz is an IFL veteran, but not an extremely successful one. His record in the IFL stands at only 5-3. I’ll take the UFC veteran in this one.
My Pick: Carmelo Marrero ($50 to win $32.25)
Lightweights:
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Bart Palaszewski (-200)
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Name (Odds)
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Jim Miller (+160)
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28-10-0
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Record
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10-1-0
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Poland
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Country
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United States
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Team Curran
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Team
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|
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24 Years Old
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Age
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24 Years Old
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Bart "Bartimus" Palaszewski is an IFL veteran with an overall IFL record of 8-3. One problem I have with Palaszewski is that he has lost 2 fights in a row. Additionally his IFL record may not quite be as impressive as it sounds. Four of his IFL wins have come by way of split decision.
Jim Miller fought his first professional fight in November of 2005. Since then he has compiled the impressive record of 10-1. His only loss came against Frank Edgar (8-0) by decision. Bartimus is no Frank Edgar. I think Miller has a good chance to take this one by submission.
My Pick: Jim Miller ($50 to win $80)
Welterweights:
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Delson Heleno (-260)
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Name (Odds)
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Brad Blackburn (+200)
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13-4-0
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Record
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11-9-1
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Brazil
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Country
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United States
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Gracie Fusion
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Team
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ATT West
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30 Years Old
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Age
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30 Years Old
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Delson Heleno is an IFL veteran with a record of 6-3 in the IFL. Two of his losses arose from unusual circumstances. In April of 2006 he was disqualified because of an illegal upkick, and in December of 2007 he was forced to quit because of a leg injury.
Brad Blackburn isn’t a great fighter. He has lost 6 of his last 9 fights. I think Delson Heleno should destroy him, unless he does something stupid and gets disqualified or gets hurt. -260 seems very generous to me.
My Pick: Delson Heleno ($50 to win $19.23)
IFL Light Heavyweight Championship:
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Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko (-500)
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Name (Odds)
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Jamal "The Suit" Patterson (+300)
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20-3-0
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Record
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4-1-0
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Belarus
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Country
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United States
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RAW Team
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Team
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|
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37 Years Old
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Age
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34 Years Old
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Vladimir Matyushenko has lost 3 times in his career. Once to Andrei Arlovski, once to Tito Ortiz, and once to Vernon White. Will Jamal Patterson become the fourth legend* to defeat The Janitor? I can say with confidence, no he will not.
My Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko ($50 to win $10)
* = maybe I’m stretching a little calling Vernon "Tiger" White a legend
IFL Welterweight Chamionship:
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Jay Hieron (-330)
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Name (Odds)
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Mark Miller (+260)
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14-4-0
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Record
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8-2-0
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Xtreme Couture
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Team
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Hellhouse
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31 Years Old
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Age
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27 Years Old
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Mark Miller has defeated a fighter better than Jay Hieron (Josh Neer 23-6-1), Jay Hieron has lost to a fighter worse than Mark Miller (Brad Blackburn 11-9-1). By that logic, Mark Miller has a chance to defeat Jay Hieron.
My Pick: Mark Miller ($50 to win $130)
IFL Lightweight Championship:
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Wagnney Fabiano (-650)
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Name (Odds)
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Shad Lierley (+450)
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9-1-0
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Record
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2-1-0
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Brazil
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Country
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United States
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Nova Uniao
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Team
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|
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32 Years Old
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Age
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27 Years Old
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This is an odd match up. Wagnney Fabiano is a great Brazilian submission artist, and Shad Lierley is a newcomer to MMA. Fabriano trained in Brazil under Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira. Lierley is an ex Division III collegiate wrestler. I don’t know what Lierley did to deserve this bout, but I think Fabiano is going to be able to submit him. Fabiano is 5-0 in the IFL with all of his wins coming by submissions. Newcomers to the sport of MMA always have a hard time stopping submissions when facing submission experts.
My Pick: Wagnney Fabiano ($50 to win $7.69)
Lightweights:
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Chris Horodecki (-650)
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Name (Odds)
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Nate Lamotte (+450)
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11-1-0
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Record
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6-2-0
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Canada
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Country
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United States
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Team Tompkins
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Team
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|
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20 Years Old
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Age
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Chris Horodecki was supposed to be the golden boy of the IFL. He was 11-0 when Ryan Schultz knocked him out in November of last year. So to rebuild Horodecki’s confidence the IFL found some guy off the street for him to pound. Nate Lamotte has been fighting in regional New England promotions for two years. He has only defeated one fighter with a winning record (Mark Raposa 4-3). I hate to say it, but I don’t see why this line is only -650. I guess it is because Horodecki is coming off the first loss of his career, and when that happens there is always a chance that a fighter will suffer a case of Roy Jones fever.
My Pick: Chris Horodecki ($50 to win $7.69)
Light Heavyweights:
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Alex Schoenauer (-650)
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Name (Odds)
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Brendan Barrett (+450)
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12-9-0
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Record
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3-2
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Argentina
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Country
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United States
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Xtreme Couture
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Team
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31 Years Old
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Age
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26 Years Old
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I like this line. Alex Schoenauer has lost two in a row, four out of six, and has an IFL record of 4-5. Bredan Barrett has only fought in smaller promotions, but I really don’t care. Schoenauer has done nothing to earn his -650 line. Schoenauer will probably win the fight, but at +450 Barrett only needs a 19% chance of winning to make picking him a profitable bet. I think he is at least that good.
My Pick: Brendan Barrett ($50 to win $225)
Week 4 Mid Week Pick Recap
Tuesday, April 1st, 2008Here is a rundown of my hypothetical picks for Wednesday:
UFC Fight Night 13 (Broomfield Event Center, Colorado , 4:45 PM ET Wednesday, April 2nd)
| Frank Edgar (-175) | $100 to win $57.14 |
| Din Thomas (-160) | $100 to win $62.50 |
| Ryan Roberts (+500) | $100 to win $500 |
| Samy Schiavo (+400) | $100 to win $400 |
| Roman Mitichyan (+135) | $100 to win $135 |
| Anthony Johnson (+235) | $100 to win $235 |
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | $100 to win $12.50 |
| Tim Boetsch (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
| Kurt Pellegrino (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
| James Irvin (+215) | $100 to win $215 |
| Joe Lauzon (+180) | $100 to win $180 |
| Karo Parisyan (-180) | $100 to win $55.54 |
The odds of a lot of these fights have moved. Here is a breakdown of where they are currently:
- Frank Edgar moved from -175 to -200. Good for me, but if I had to choose again at those odds I wouldn’t like that one bit. I don’t think I could recommend Edgar at -200. I’d wait and see if there was any movement before tomorrow night.
- Din Thomas moved from -160 to -180. I’m glad I took him at -160, but he is still a good bet at -180
- Roman Mitichyan moved from +135 to +150. Oops.
- Anthony Johnson moved from +235 to +205. Those odds are still good enough for me to take him.
- Tim Boetsch moved from +160 to +145. This is another move I don’t like. If I had to choose I would still take Boetsch at +145.
- Kurt Pellegrino moved from +160 to +130. With those odds I’d most likely take Diaz at -160
- James Irvin moved from +215 to +190. I still like him at those odds.
- Joe Lauzon moved from +180 to +160. I still like him as you will see below.
That’s a ton of movement, and it all seems to benefit me except for the Mitichyan fight. I don’t like it one bit. They say the majority of gamblers are losers, and having the majority agreeing with me doesn’t sit too well.
Lock of the Week (This is an extra bet)
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | $100 to win $12.50 |
The only chance Jeff Cox has is if Gamburyan injures himself again.
Value Bet of the Week (This is an extra bet)
| Joe Lauzon (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
These aren’t the biggest odds, but I still think this is the most lopsided line (other than maybe the Samy Schiavo fight, but I don’t have the balls to recommend another bet on him).
To recap, I recommend 12 bets for tomorrow plus the 2 bonus bets. On the year I am up a hypothetical $150.53.