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The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks UFC 87
Thursday, August 7th, 2008Ultimate Fighting Championship live from Minneapolis, MN Saturday August 9th at 10 PM ET!!! Let’s get to it.
Welterweights:
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Luke Cummo (-140)
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Name (Odds)
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Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory (+110)
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6-5-0 (3-3 in UFC)
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Record
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8-1-0 (1-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Serra Jiu-Jitsu
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Team
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|
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28
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Age
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21
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Luke Cummo is 6-5 with no notable victories, yet he’s the favorite? Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory is 8-1 with his only loss coming against old school Shooto/Pancrase/PRIDE veteran Akihiro Gono. I’ll take "The Barn Cat" in this one.
I only have one question. Why call yourself "Barn Cat"? I like the uniqueness, but don’t see the fear inspiring potential.
My Pick: Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory (+110)
Heavyweights:
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Cheick Kongo (-500)
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Name (Odds)
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Dan Evensen (+350)
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11-4-1 (4-2 in UFC)
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Record
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10-2-0 (0-0 in UFC)
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France
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Country
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Norway
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Quoniam Gym
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Team
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33 Years Old
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Age
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34 Years Old
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I don’t know what to think about Cheick Kongo. He has some impressive victories in the UFC including back-to-back wins over Assuerio Silva and the enormous headcase Mirko Cro Cop. That said, I think he looked terrible in his most recent fight against Heath Herring.
The UFC appears to like Kongo because they are putting him in the ring with newcomer Dan Evensen. Evensen’s most recent fight was a victory over Konstantin Gluhov (2-2) for BodogFight in November. Evensen has no notable victories, but six of his ten victories come by way of knockout. It doesn’t take a lot for me to take a fighter at +350, and Evensen’s knockout ability is enough for me.
By the way, Kongo trains at Quoniam Gym which is also Quinton "Rampage" Jackson’s gym. Maybe Rampage’s temporary insanity had a negative effect on his training?
My Pick: Dan Evensen (+350)
Light Heavyweights:
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Andre Gusmao (-215)
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Name (Odds)
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Jon Jones (+175)
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5-0-0 (0-0 in UFC)
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Record
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5-0-0 (0-0 in UFC)
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Brazil
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Country
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United States
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Team
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||
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31 Years Old
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Age
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21 Years Old
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Two undefeated guys here. Neither with UFC caliber experience. Let’s break them down:
Gusmao is an IFL veteran who went 4-0 in the now defunct promotion. Gusmao has two notable victories over Mike Ciesnolevicz (15-3). Gusmao is 31 frickin’ years old. Why did he start his MMA career so late? Gusmao has one of those mean looking Brazilian shoulder tattoos.
Jon Jones is the youngest fighter currently under contract with the UFC. Jones has no notable victories. Jones was a JUCO National Wrestling Champion. Jones has a 4 fight deal with the UFC, so they at least see some potential in him.
Straight up I would take Gusmao in this one, but with the odds I’m going to go with Jones. He hasn’t been tested like Gusmao has, but his strong wrestling background and youth (read: extra energy) could lead to victory.
My Pick: Jon Jones (+175)
Welterweights:
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Chris Wilson (-330)
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Name (Odds)
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Steve Bruno (+260)
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13-4-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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11-3-0 (0-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team Quest
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Team
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American Top Team
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31 Years Old
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Age
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26 Years Old
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I don’t like this fight.
Wilson has the better pedigree, but in his UFC debut he was fed to the wolves when he had to fight Jon Fitch. Before his UFC debut, Wilson had some fights in the IFL with his most notable victory probably coming over Rory Markham. If you can’t remember who Markham is, he is the fighter who was awarded the Knockout of the Night for his headkick against Brodie Farber at the UFC event on July 19th.
Before becoming an MMA fighter, Steve Bruno was a Naval Air Crewman / Rescue Swimmer for the U.S. Navy. He has never faced any great competition, but has won four fights in a row. He does have stopping power with six of his wins coming by knockout and four by submission.
Straight up I would take Wilson, but I am not going to take a fighter at -330 who is 0-1 in the UFC.
My Pick: Steve Bruno (+260)
Welterweights:
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Ben Saunders (-260)
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Name (Odds)
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Ryan Thomas (+200)
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5-0-2 (1-0 in UFC)
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Record
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9-1-0 (0-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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American Top Team
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Team
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?
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25 Years Old
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Age
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?
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Bodoglife has Ben Saunders listed as "Ben Sanders". I don’t like that. I also didn’t like Saunders in The Ultimate Fighter. Normally that would be enough reason for me to take Thomas, but get a hold of this: Thomas fought three weeks ago. Not three months ago, but three weeks ago. In fact, Thomas has had five fights this year. Although I respect Thomas for his willingness to get out there and work, that many fights can’t be a good thing when you are facing a fighter who is officially undefeated. I’ll take the favorite here.
My Pick: Ben Saunders (-260)
Lightweights:
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Manny Gamburyan (-325)
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Name (Odds)
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Rob Emerson (+250)
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8-2-0 (2-1 in UFC)
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Record
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7-6-0 (1-0 in UFC w/ 1 NC)
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Armenia
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Country
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United States
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Team
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Team Oyama
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|
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27 Years Old
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Age
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27 Years Old
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I love Manny Gamburyan. Want to know why? Skip ahead to 2:10 of this video:
A lot of people might see that as cheap. I say grow a pair. Does the ref not say at the beginning of every fight, "Protect yourself at all times." Just because it has become a tradition to touch gloves a SECOND TIME to start a fight doesn’t mean an intelligent fighter should pay any attention to that. How did that stupid tradition start anyway? What if I wanted to touch gloves a third time or do whatever they call the traditional Muay Thai ceremonial stuff after the fight started. Would the other fighter be declared cheap if he took a shot at me?
Gamburyan only has 2 losses in his career. One was against Sean Sherk in 2001. He was also beat by Nate Diaz in 2007 when he dislocated his shoulder during their fight.
Rob Emerson is a scumbag, and not a very good fighter. The only way I see Gamburyan losing is if his shoulder slips out. I’ll assume (hope? pray?) that the shoulder problem was a one time thing and pick Gamburyan in this fight
My Pick: Manny Gamburyan (-325)
Middleweights:
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Demian Maia (-260)
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Name (Odds)
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Jason MacDonald (+200)
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7-0-0 (2-0 in UFC)
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Record
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20-9-0 (4-2 in UFC)
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Brazil
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Country
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Canada
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Team
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Pro Camp
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30 Years Old
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Age
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33 Years Old
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Bodoglife.com lists this as a fight of "Damian" Maia vs. Jason "McDonald", but what can you do? Can you really expect the employees of the largest sportsbook on the web to spell check the names of the fighters.
Demian Maia is a world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner. In his first two UFC fights he won Submission of the Night. Jason MacDonald usually wins his fights by submission, but against a fighter of Maia’s caliber I don’t think a submission will be possible. I think the UFC is tossing Maia a bone here and trying to build up his reputation before putting him in the cage against a figher whose style could cause him trouble. I see Maia easily winning this fight by submission.
My Pick: Demian "Damian" Maia (-260)
Lightweights:
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Kenny Florian (-165)
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Name (Odds)
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Roger Huerta (+135)
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9-3-0 (7-2 in UFC)
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Record
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20-1-1 (6-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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||
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32 Years Old
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Age
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25 Years Old
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This has the potential to be a great fight.
This fight can really go either way, but I am going to take Roger Huerta for a couple of reasons. First, I always think the lines for The Ultimate Fighter alumni tend to be a little inflated. I think that is the case here also. Florian is a great fighter, and in general, he has faced tougher competition than Roger Huera, but making him -165 seems a little steep to me. Huerta is undefeated in the UFC, and he hasn’t lost since 2001. For those reasons I am going to have to go with Roger Huerta in this one.
Fun Fact From Wikipedia: "On April 5, 2007, at UFC Fight Night 9 Florian defeated Japanese fighter Dokonjonosuke Mishima via rear naked choke submission. In the interview after this fight, Florian can be seen pretending to drink Xyience energy drink. The can was clearly unopened."
My Pick: Roger Huerta (+135)
Heavyweights:
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Brock Lesnar (-240)
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Name (Odds)
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Heath "The Texas Crazy Horse" Herring (+190)
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1-1-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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28-13-0 (2-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Minnesota Martial Arts Academy
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Team
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Las Vegas Combat Club
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31 Years Old
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Age
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30 Years Old
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Brock "WWE Champion" Lesnar being the favorite in this fight amuses me. He has proven nothing in the world of MMA, yet he is a favorite against MMA veteran Heath Herring. Herring may not have won every match he has ever had, but he has fought top class fighters such as: Evan Tanner, Vitor Belfort, Mark Kerr, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria, Igor Vovchanchyn, Fedor Emelianenko, and Mirko Filipovic. I don’t think Brock Lesnar is going to have anything that will surprise Herring, and I think Herring will eventually be able to use his experience to secure a submission much like Frank Mir did in Lesnar’s UFC debut. Lesnar’s only chance is to knock Herring out, and Herring hasn’t been knocked out his he fought Cro Cop in 2003.
I’ll take Herring in this fight, and I’ll make this my pick of the week.
Fun Fact: Brock Lesnar hates planes and gays
My Pick: Heath Herring (+190)
Welterweights:
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Georges St. Pierre (-340)
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Name (Odds)
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Jon Fitch (+260)
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16-2-0 (10-2 in UFC)
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Record
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17-2 (8-0 in UFC)
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Canada
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Country
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United States
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BTT Canada
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Team
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27 Years Old
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Age
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30 Years Old
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Georges St. Pierre used to be one of my favorite fighters to cheer for. It may sound like MMA blasphemy, but the amount of whining that came from his camp trying to explain why he lost to Matt Serra really annoyed me. Maybe every word of it was true. I really don’t know, and I really don’t care. Now I can’t look at him without thinking of Sasha Baron Cohen’s character in Talledega Nights. But that has nothing to do with me handicapping this fight.
I’m taking Fitch in this fight, and I’ll tell you why:
- Fitch is undefeated in the UFC
- Fitch is a big underdog ($10 would win you $26)
- Fitch hasn’t lost in 5.5 years
- There are so many HUGE St. Pierre fans out there, that I don’t think this line could ever be right. +260 isn’t that extreme, but I’d put Fitch more around +180 or so
If it was even money I’d take St. Pierre, but just barely. For all of his great strengths St. Pierre is starting to show himself as more and more of a headcase.
My Pick: Jon Fitch (+260)
Bow Tie Betting – Week 3 Results
Sunday, March 30th, 2008| Fighter | Fighter | Hypothetical Bet Size | Event | Winner | Running Total |
| Logan Clark (-325) | Scott Harper (+250) | $100 | WEC 33 | Logan Clark by TKO | +$30.76 |
| Kenji Osawa (-120) | Chris Manuel (+110) | $50 | WEC 33 | Decision DRAW | +$30.76 |
| Richard Crunkilton Jr (-240) | Sergio Gomez (+190) | $50 | WEC 33 | Rich Crunkilton by Unanimous Decision | -$19.24 |
| Brock Larson (-300) | John Alessio (+240) | $50 | WEC 33 | Brock Larson by DQ (Illegal Knee) | -$69.24 |
| Hiromitsu Miura (-170) | Blas Avena (+140) | $50 | WEC 33 | Hiromitsu Miura by TKO | -$119.24 |
| Steve Cantwell (+115) | Tim McKenzie (-140) | $50 | WEC 33 | Steve Cantwell by Submission | -$61.74 |
| Marcus Hicks (-130) | Ed Ratcliff (EVEN) | $50 | WEC 33 | Marcus Hicks by Submission | -$111.74 |
| Chael Sonnen (-490) | Bryan Baker (+290) | $50 | WEC 33 | Chael Sonnen by Unanimous Decision | -$161.74 |
| Brian “All American” Stann (-180) | Doug “Rhino” Marshall (+150) | $50 | WEC 33 | Brian Stann by TKO | -$133.97 |
| Gilbert Melendez (-650) | Gabe Lemley (+450) | $50 | EliteXC/Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Le | Gilbert Melendez by TKO | -$183.97 |
| Frank Shamrock (-220) | Cung Le (+180) | $50 | EliteXC/Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Le | Cung Le by TKO | -$93.97 |
So…. this was a bad week. WEC 33 killed me. 7 out of 8 favorites won. That’s pretty ridiculous. My lock of the week Logan Clark came through. So my locks of the week are now 2/2. Cung Le was able to defeat Shamrock in what I consider to be the best fight of the week. They went to war, but Cung Le was able to pull out a victory after breaking Shamrock’s arm in the third round.