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UFC 98 Pick Recap
Saturday, June 6th, 2009George Roop (-160) defeats Dave Kaplan (+120) by split decision
I picked Roop to win this fight, and he was able to pull off a very close split decision victory. Not a bad way to start the event.
Yoshiyuki “Zenko” Yoshida (-500) defeats Brandon Wolff (+300) by submission
I liked Wolff in this one. But what can I do. +300 fighters can’t win every time, and Wolff ended up getting dominated.
Kyle Bradley (+220) defeats Phillipe Nover (-330) by TKO
I picked Bradley and he ended up winning this one very quickly because of a horribly unnecessary stoppage by the referee 1 minute into the fight. It seems like every UFC event of the last 12 months or so has had at least one terrible stoppage, and this is probably the worst of all. I understand wanting to protect fighters, but it is just getting ridiculous…
Tim “The Thrashing Machine” Hague (+220) defeats Patrick “Get Hype” Barry (-330) by submission
I picked Hague in this one. I thought that Barry was somewhat over hyped, and the fact that he got caught by a guillotine choke less than two minutes into the fight really doesn’t help to disprove that. It was at this point in the event that I knew I was going to have a good night. After winning 3 of my first 4 fights including two large underdogs (they were both +220), I knew I could lose almost every other fight of the night and still come out on top.
Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (+200) defeats Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk (-300) by unanimous decision
Edgar was my pick, giving me my 4th win of the night. He won in dominating fashion, taking the fight 30-27 on all three judges’ scorecards.
Matt Hughes (-275) defeats Matt Serra (+190) by unanimous decision
I picked Serra, and it was a close fight. If I had to do it all over I’d pick Serra again. There is no way that Hughes is worth -275 against any UFC caliber welterweight right now. He is just too far past his prime.
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-200) defeats “Sugar” Rashad Evans (+150) by KO
I picked Evans, and if there is one pick I just missed on this is it. I didn’t think that Machida would outclass Evans, but that’s exactly what he did.
Overall, this was a great night for me. I went 4-3 with 3 of my wins coming from underdogs. I hope you had a good night as well!
UFC 98 | Lyoto Machida vs. Rashad Evans | Gambling Pick
Wednesday, May 20th, 2009
Sugar
Light Heavyweights:
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Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-200 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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“Sugar” Rashad Evans (+150 at BetUs)
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14-0-0 (6-0 in UFC)
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Record
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13-0-1 (8-0-1 in UFC)
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Brazil
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Country
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United States
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Black House
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Team
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Jackson’s Submission Fighting
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30 Years Old
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Age
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29 Years Old
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Lyoto Machida has a great record. He beat Stephan Bonnar and Rich Franklin in 2003. He defeated B.J. Penn in an open weight bout in 2005. He won a decision over Tito Ortiz in 2008, and knocked out Thiago Silva in January of this year. Rashad Evans also has an impressive record. He beat Stephan Bonnar in 2006, fought Tito Ortiz to a draw and beat the previously undefeated Michael Bisping in 2007. In 2008 he knocked out Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin.
Overall I’d have to say Lyoto Machida has a slightly more impressive body of work. And when you’re looking at two undefeated fighters that means a lot. But at +150 I think Rashad Evans is an easy pick. At +150 Rashad needs a 40% chance of victory to make it a good bet. And personally I’d put his odds somewhere in the 45%-50% range.
My Pick: Rashad Evans (+150)