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UFC 98 Pick Recap
Saturday, June 6th, 2009George Roop (-160) defeats Dave Kaplan (+120) by split decision
I picked Roop to win this fight, and he was able to pull off a very close split decision victory. Not a bad way to start the event.
Yoshiyuki “Zenko” Yoshida (-500) defeats Brandon Wolff (+300) by submission
I liked Wolff in this one. But what can I do. +300 fighters can’t win every time, and Wolff ended up getting dominated.
Kyle Bradley (+220) defeats Phillipe Nover (-330) by TKO
I picked Bradley and he ended up winning this one very quickly because of a horribly unnecessary stoppage by the referee 1 minute into the fight. It seems like every UFC event of the last 12 months or so has had at least one terrible stoppage, and this is probably the worst of all. I understand wanting to protect fighters, but it is just getting ridiculous…
Tim “The Thrashing Machine” Hague (+220) defeats Patrick “Get Hype” Barry (-330) by submission
I picked Hague in this one. I thought that Barry was somewhat over hyped, and the fact that he got caught by a guillotine choke less than two minutes into the fight really doesn’t help to disprove that. It was at this point in the event that I knew I was going to have a good night. After winning 3 of my first 4 fights including two large underdogs (they were both +220), I knew I could lose almost every other fight of the night and still come out on top.
Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (+200) defeats Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk (-300) by unanimous decision
Edgar was my pick, giving me my 4th win of the night. He won in dominating fashion, taking the fight 30-27 on all three judges’ scorecards.
Matt Hughes (-275) defeats Matt Serra (+190) by unanimous decision
I picked Serra, and it was a close fight. If I had to do it all over I’d pick Serra again. There is no way that Hughes is worth -275 against any UFC caliber welterweight right now. He is just too far past his prime.
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-200) defeats “Sugar” Rashad Evans (+150) by KO
I picked Evans, and if there is one pick I just missed on this is it. I didn’t think that Machida would outclass Evans, but that’s exactly what he did.
Overall, this was a great night for me. I went 4-3 with 3 of my wins coming from underdogs. I hope you had a good night as well!
UFC 98 | Betting Line Updates | 5-21-09
Thursday, May 21st, 2009
Live and Know... I guess that makes sense.
First off, the Dave Kaplan vs. George Roop currently is not available on BetUs.com. The fight doesn’t appear to have been canceled, so I am going to assume it was taken down while they consider adjusting the line. FYI, the line is Roop -165, Kaplan +135 at bodoglife.com. I would take Roop at -165, but just barely.
| Phillipe Nover | Kyle Bradley |
| -330 at BetUs (Previously -350) | +220 at BetUs (Previously +225) |
Comment: I hate to keep mentioning this, but you do know that Bradley was +300 a week ago, right? That said, +220 isn’t that much different than +225. So I still like Bradley at these odds. I don’t that the line is going to slide that much more, and I actually think there is a decent chance that it will start to creep back up towards +300. So unless you had to make a bet now, I would recommend holding off.
UFC 98 | Betting Line Updates | 5-20-09
Wednesday, May 20th, 2009
I'm not sure, but this poster may not be 100% accurate
| Dave Kaplan | George Roop |
| +120 at BetUs (Previously +110) | -160 at BetUs (Previously -150) |
Comment: I still like Roop at -160, but if the line slides any more I might have a different opinion.
| Phillipe Nover | Kyle Bradley |
| -350 at BetUs (Previously -400) | +225 at BetUs (Previously +250) |
Comment: Geeze! Bradley was at +300 less than a week ago. At +225 I don’t know what to do. I guess I still have to like Bradley, but if you didn’t get in at +250 or better why bother now? Another option would be to wait a couple of days to see where the line moves. Because it has jumped so much over the last 7 days, I really can’t see it not staying put until Saturday.
UFC 98 | Betting Line Updates | 5-17-09
Sunday, May 17th, 2009
I think it's kind of an ugly poster. Any thoughts?
| Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
| -275 at BetUs (Previously -250) | +190 at BetUs (Previously +185) |
Comment: I thought Serra was an OK pick at +185. I like him a little more at +190
| Phillipe Nover | Kyle Bradley |
| -400 at BetUs (Previously -500) | +250 at BetUs (Previously +300) |
Comment: From my previous post: I don’t think that Bradley will stay at +300, so if you like him at those odds, I would recommend making the bet right now. See! Sometimes I do know what I’m talking about. That said, I still like Bradley at +250.
UFC 98 | Phillipe Nover vs. Kyle Bradley | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, April 28th, 2009
How Can A Guy With His Own T-Shirt Lose?
Lightweights:
|
Phillipe Nover (-500 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Kyle Bradley (+300 at BetUs)
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|
5-1-1 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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13-6-0 (0-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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|
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Team
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Team Voodoo
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25 Years Old
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Age
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26 Years Old
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Phillipe Nover made a name for himself by making it to the lightweight finals of TUF: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir. He was defeated in the finals by the undefeated Efrain Escudero. Other than that he really doesn’t really have any notable bouts.
Kyle Bradley is a knockout artist who I definitely think is being undervalued at +300. Although he doesn’t have any wins in the UFC, his two losses came against Chris Lytle and Joe Lauzon. Both of whom definitely are not push overs. Eight of Bradley’s twelve wins have come by knockout. This combined with the extra fight experience he has compared to Nover makes him an easy pick for me at +300.
I don’t think that Bradley will stay at +300, so if you like him at those odds, I would recommend making the bet right now. I’m not sure what the result of this fight will be, but I expect Bradley to feel the fear and do it anyway.
Fun Fact: This is the only UFC fight I can where I don’t think either guy has a well known nickname. Am I wrong?
My Pick: Kyle Bradley (+300)