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Bow Tie Betting – Week 4 Results
Tuesday, April 8th, 2008| Fighter | Fighter | Hypothetical Bet Size | Event | Winner | Running Total |
| Anthony Johnson (+235) | Tommy Speer (-295) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Anthony Johnson by KO | +$235 |
| George Sotiropoulos (-165) | Roman Mitichyan (+135) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Sotiropoulos wins by TKO | +$135 |
| Clay Guida (-600) | Samy Schiavo (+400) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Guida wins by TKO | +$35 |
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | Jeff Cox (+500) | $200 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Gamburyan wins by submission | +$60 |
| Marcus Aurelio (-800) | Ryan Roberts (+500) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Aurelio wins by submission | -$40 |
| Din Thomas (-160) | Josh "The Dentist" Neer (+130) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Neer wins by unanimous decision | -$140 |
| Houston Alexander (-275) | James Irvin (+215) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Irvin wins by TKO | +$75 |
| Nate Diaz (-200) | Kurt Pellegrino (+160) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Diaz wins by submission | -$25 |
| Matt Hamill (-200) | Tim Boetsch (+160) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Hamill by TKO | -$125 |
| Karo Parisyan (-180) | Thiago Alves (+150) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Alves by TKO | -$225 |
| Gray Maynard (+145) | Frank Edgar (-175) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Edgar by decision | -$325 |
| Kenny Florian (-220) | Joe Lauzon (+180) | $200 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Florian by TKO | -$525 |
| Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko (-500) | Jamal "The Suit" Patterson (+300) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Matyushenko by TKO | -$515 |
| Wagnney Fabiano (-650) | Shad Lierley (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Fabiano by KO | -$507.31 |
| Jay Hieron (-330) | Mark Miller (+260) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Hieron by TKO | -$557.31 |
| Carmelo Marrero (-155) | Mike Ciesnolevicz (+125) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | NO CONTEST (CUT) | -$557.31 |
| Bart Palaszewski (-200) | Jim Miller (+160) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Miller by unanimous decision | -$477.31 |
| Delson Heleno (-260) | Brad Blackburn (+200) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Blackburn by KO | -$527.31 |
| Alex Schoenauer (-650) | Brendan Barrett (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Schoenauer by split decision | -$577.31 |
| Chris Horodecki (-650) | Nate Lamotte (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Horodecki by unanimous decision | -$569.62 |
Week 4 was a terrible week. I made two big mistakes I ended up paying for. First off, betting against Matt Hamill was a mistake. I let my personal dislike for the man influence my judgement. That’s never a good thing. Secondly, betting on Karo Parisyan was a big mistake. I should have just gone with the underdog.
I guess I can take solace in the fact the a lot of bettors went down with me. The way the lines moved during the week showed all of the action going towards my fighters.
International Fight League (IFL) April 4, 2008 Picks
Friday, April 4th, 2008Light Heavyweights:
|
Carmelo Marrero (-155)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Mike Ciesnolevicz (+125)
|
|
7-2-0
|
Record
|
13-3
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
American Top Team
|
Team
|
Miletich Martial Arts
|
|
27 Years Old
|
Age
|
28 Years Old
|
Carmelo Marrero is a veteran of the UFC where he earned a victory against Cheick Kongo (11-4-1) at UFC 64. He would go on to lose his next two UFC bouts. This is his first fight in the IFL
Mike Ciesnolevicz is an IFL veteran, but not an extremely successful one. His record in the IFL stands at only 5-3. I’ll take the UFC veteran in this one.
My Pick: Carmelo Marrero ($50 to win $32.25)
Lightweights:
|
Bart Palaszewski (-200)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Jim Miller (+160)
|
|
28-10-0
|
Record
|
10-1-0
|
|
Poland
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team Curran
|
Team
|
|
|
24 Years Old
|
Age
|
24 Years Old
|
Bart "Bartimus" Palaszewski is an IFL veteran with an overall IFL record of 8-3. One problem I have with Palaszewski is that he has lost 2 fights in a row. Additionally his IFL record may not quite be as impressive as it sounds. Four of his IFL wins have come by way of split decision.
Jim Miller fought his first professional fight in November of 2005. Since then he has compiled the impressive record of 10-1. His only loss came against Frank Edgar (8-0) by decision. Bartimus is no Frank Edgar. I think Miller has a good chance to take this one by submission.
My Pick: Jim Miller ($50 to win $80)
Welterweights:
|
Delson Heleno (-260)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Brad Blackburn (+200)
|
|
13-4-0
|
Record
|
11-9-1
|
|
Brazil
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Gracie Fusion
|
Team
|
ATT West
|
|
30 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
Delson Heleno is an IFL veteran with a record of 6-3 in the IFL. Two of his losses arose from unusual circumstances. In April of 2006 he was disqualified because of an illegal upkick, and in December of 2007 he was forced to quit because of a leg injury.
Brad Blackburn isn’t a great fighter. He has lost 6 of his last 9 fights. I think Delson Heleno should destroy him, unless he does something stupid and gets disqualified or gets hurt. -260 seems very generous to me.
My Pick: Delson Heleno ($50 to win $19.23)
IFL Light Heavyweight Championship:
|
Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko (-500)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Jamal "The Suit" Patterson (+300)
|
|
20-3-0
|
Record
|
4-1-0
|
|
Belarus
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
RAW Team
|
Team
|
|
|
37 Years Old
|
Age
|
34 Years Old
|
Vladimir Matyushenko has lost 3 times in his career. Once to Andrei Arlovski, once to Tito Ortiz, and once to Vernon White. Will Jamal Patterson become the fourth legend* to defeat The Janitor? I can say with confidence, no he will not.
My Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko ($50 to win $10)
* = maybe I’m stretching a little calling Vernon "Tiger" White a legend
IFL Welterweight Chamionship:
|
Jay Hieron (-330)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Mark Miller (+260)
|
|
14-4-0
|
Record
|
8-2-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Xtreme Couture
|
Team
|
Hellhouse
|
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
27 Years Old
|
Mark Miller has defeated a fighter better than Jay Hieron (Josh Neer 23-6-1), Jay Hieron has lost to a fighter worse than Mark Miller (Brad Blackburn 11-9-1). By that logic, Mark Miller has a chance to defeat Jay Hieron.
My Pick: Mark Miller ($50 to win $130)
IFL Lightweight Championship:
|
Wagnney Fabiano (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Shad Lierley (+450)
|
|
9-1-0
|
Record
|
2-1-0
|
|
Brazil
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Nova Uniao
|
Team
|
|
|
32 Years Old
|
Age
|
27 Years Old
|
This is an odd match up. Wagnney Fabiano is a great Brazilian submission artist, and Shad Lierley is a newcomer to MMA. Fabriano trained in Brazil under Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira. Lierley is an ex Division III collegiate wrestler. I don’t know what Lierley did to deserve this bout, but I think Fabiano is going to be able to submit him. Fabiano is 5-0 in the IFL with all of his wins coming by submissions. Newcomers to the sport of MMA always have a hard time stopping submissions when facing submission experts.
My Pick: Wagnney Fabiano ($50 to win $7.69)
Lightweights:
|
Chris Horodecki (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Nate Lamotte (+450)
|
|
11-1-0
|
Record
|
6-2-0
|
|
Canada
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team Tompkins
|
Team
|
|
|
20 Years Old
|
Age
|
Chris Horodecki was supposed to be the golden boy of the IFL. He was 11-0 when Ryan Schultz knocked him out in November of last year. So to rebuild Horodecki’s confidence the IFL found some guy off the street for him to pound. Nate Lamotte has been fighting in regional New England promotions for two years. He has only defeated one fighter with a winning record (Mark Raposa 4-3). I hate to say it, but I don’t see why this line is only -650. I guess it is because Horodecki is coming off the first loss of his career, and when that happens there is always a chance that a fighter will suffer a case of Roy Jones fever.
My Pick: Chris Horodecki ($50 to win $7.69)
Light Heavyweights:
|
Alex Schoenauer (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Brendan Barrett (+450)
|
|
12-9-0
|
Record
|
3-2
|
|
Argentina
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Xtreme Couture
|
Team
|
|
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
26 Years Old
|
I like this line. Alex Schoenauer has lost two in a row, four out of six, and has an IFL record of 4-5. Bredan Barrett has only fought in smaller promotions, but I really don’t care. Schoenauer has done nothing to earn his -650 line. Schoenauer will probably win the fight, but at +450 Barrett only needs a 19% chance of winning to make picking him a profitable bet. I think he is at least that good.
My Pick: Brendan Barrett ($50 to win $225)