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Bodog Posts Their UFC 88 Lines
Wednesday, August 27th, 2008Bodoglife.com posted their lines for the majority of the UFC 88 fights yesterday. Let’s take a look!
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Fighter
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Bodoglife Odds
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Betus Odds
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| Nate Marquardt | -145 | -140 |
| Martin Kampmann | +115 | EVEN |
In my previous post I said I liked Kampmann at even odds, so I would definitely take him at the +115 Bodog is offering.
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Fighter
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Bodoglife Odds
|
Betus Odds
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| Karo Parisyan | -260 | -280 |
| Yoshiyuki Yoshida | +175 | +210 |
I barely liked Yoshida at +210, and I don’t like him at +175. +175 would mean that Yoshida would need a touch better than a 36% chance of winning to make the bet profitable. I don’t think his chances are quite that good.
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Fighter
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Bodoglife Odds
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Betus Odds
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| Dan Henderson | -205 | -200 |
| Rousimar Palhares | +165 | +160 |
Similar odds between the two books here. I like Henderson at -200 from Betus.
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Fighter
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Bodoglife Odds
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Betus Odds
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| Rich Franklin | -265 | -240 |
| Matt Hamill | +205 | +190 |
Maybe they just do it because they know it annoys me, but for what seems like the 10th event in a row Bodog has spelled a fighter’s name wrong. In this case they spelled Matt Hamill, "Matt Hamil". Regardless of their motive I like their odds. Previously I stated that I liked Hamill at +190, and I certainly like him at +205.
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Fighter
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Bodoglife Odds
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Betus Odds
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| Chuck Liddell | -260 | -260 |
| Rashad Evans | +200 | +200 |
The two sites agree on this one. Rashad Evans was at +210 as recent as a couple of nights ago. Because of Liddell’s strong fan base I would actually expect Rashad’s line to creep back up there before the night of the fight. I would take Evans in this fight at these odds, but I think that by waiting on this fight the line can only become more favorable.
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Fighter
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Bodoglife Odds
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Betus Odds
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| Ryo ‘Piranha" Chonan | -125 | N/A |
| Roan Carneiro | -105 | N/A |
Hey, Bodog actually beat Betus in putting up the line for a fight! I like Ryo Chonan. I think the UFC signed him because he was the last fighter to defeat Anderson Silva by something other than disqualification. I think the UFC hopes that Chonan can win a couple of fights, so they can set up a Silva-Chonan fight that they can hype with something like, "Redemption – Anderson Silva faces off against PRIDE veteran Ryo Chonan in a chance to redeem himself against one of the four fighters that has ever defeated him."
I like Chonan in this fight for a few reasons:
- The UFC wants him to win
- Both him and Carneiro have similar records: Chonan is 14-8 and Carneiro is 12-7, but Chonan has faced tougher opponents.
- Chonan has wins over a couple of good fighters: Joey Villasenor and Hayato “Mach” Sakurai. Carneiro’s most impressive victory was against the veteran fighter Rich Clementi.
- They fought each other in 2005 and Chonan won.
You can ignore the first three reasons and just look at #4. -125 seems good for a fighter who has defeated his opponent before.
Bow Tie Betting – Friday Pick Recaps (3/28/08)
Friday, March 28th, 2008The Strikeforce/EliteXC card scheduled for tomorrow night has gone to shit. Three of the fights on the televised card have been canceled. That means only two fights that I originally picked are still going to take place.
Cung Le (+180) vs. Frank Shamrock (-220)
I picked Le in this fight, because I thought +180 was too much. It seems like bodoglife.com agrees. Right now Cung Le is listed as +155. I don’t think his line will slip much lower. I actually think Le’s line could get a little better before tomorrow night.
Gilbert Melendez (-650) vs. Gabe Lemley (+450)
This line hasn’t moved at all.
I don’t have a “Value Bet of the Week” right now, but that could change before tomorrow night. There have been some replacement fights announced, and I am waiting to see if bodoglife.com puts the lines up.
The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks DREAM 1
Thursday, March 13th, 2008On Saturday the first ever DREAM mixed martial arts event will take place. DREAM 1 will feature the opening round of an excellent 16 man lightweight grand prix. So without delay, here are my picks for the 1st round of the grand prix. All of these lines come from bodoglife.com at about 12 PM Central Time on Thurday.