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UFC Fight Night 13 Picks Part 2
Monday, March 31st, 2008Bodoglife.com put the lines up for the rest of the Ultimate Fighting Championship Fight Night card. Here are my picks…
Lightweights:
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Frank Edgar (-175)
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Name (Odds)
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Gray Maynard (+145)
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8-0-0 (3-0 in UFC)
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Record
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4-0-0 (2-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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Xtreme Couture
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|
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26 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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Both of these fighters are undefeated, but Frank Edgar has definitely beat better opponents. Edgar’s three UFC victories were against Spencer Fisher (20-4), Mark Bocek (5-1), and Tyson Griffin (11-1). Maynard’s 2 UFC victories come against Joe Veras (4-3) and Dennis Silver (11-5). Both of these fighters have amateur wrestling backgrounds so they should have similar styles.
I like Edgar, because -175 seems like excellent odds for a fighter who has accomplished what he has.
My Pick: Frank Edgar ($100 to win $57.14)
Lightweights:
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Din Thomas (-160)
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Name (Odds)
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Josh "The Dentist" Neer (+130)
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20-7-0 (5-2 in UFC)
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Record
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23-6-1 (2-3 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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American Top Team
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Team
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Miletich Martial Arts
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31 Years Old
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Age
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24 Years Old
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I think Din Thomas is going to be able to dominate this fight. Josh Neer is returning to the UFC after spending the last 18 months fighting in smaller promotions. I think the time away will help him, but he has never been successful in the UFC. I don’t think that he is going to be successful here. On the plus side, he does have a cool nickname.
One thing that has me slightly worried about Din is the fact that this is his first fight since he tore his meniscus in a fight against Kenny Florian. That was in September of last year, so hopefully he has had time to fully recover.
My Pick: Din Thomas ($100 to win $62.50)
Lightweights:
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Marcus Aurelio (-800)
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Name (Odds)
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Ryan Roberts (+500)
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15-5-0 (1-1 in UFC)
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Record
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8-2-0
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Brazil
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Country
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United States
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American Top Team
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Team
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|
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34 Years Old
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Age
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29 Years Old
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Marcus Aurelio has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. Aurelio is not a ranked lightweight. He has faced tougher opponents than Ryan Roberts has, but -800 seems like too much. I can’t bet on a fighter who has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. His only win over that period came against Luke Caudillo (14-9)
Let’s find some reasons why Ryan Roberts is going to win this fight:
- He has won 2 in a row and 5 out of 6.
- He has knockout power. 3 of his last 4 wins were by TKO
- He’s the younger fighter. Maybe Aurelio will blow his knee out, because he’s an old man.
- His link on the Wikipedia Fight Night 13 page goes to the baseball player Ryan Roberts. Maybe Aurelio has been watching Texas Rangers film to prepare. That could really throw him off.
My Pick: Ryan Roberts ($100 to win $500)
Lightweights:
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Clay Guida (-600)
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Name (Odds)
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Samy Schiavo (+400)
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22-9-0 (2-3 in UFC)
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Record
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10-4-0
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United States
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Country
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France
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Hellhouse
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Team
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French Top Team
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26 Years Old
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Age
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32 Years Old
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I’m not going to lie. I didn’t even know there was a French Top Team, and now it looks like I’m going to bet on one of their fighters. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida is a good fighter, but I don’t see where the -600 comes from. Clay has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. That’s not good. Since the beginning of 2006 Clay’s record is 4-6.
Samy "I’m French" Schiavo has never fought in the United States before. He has won his last six fights, three by submission and three by (T)KO. That’s what I like to see. Hopefully his first trip to America is a successful one.
My Pick: Samy Schiavo ($100 to win $400)
Welterweights:
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George Sotiropoulos (-165)
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Name (Odds)
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Roman Mitichyan (+135)
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8-2-0 (1-0 in UFC)
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Record
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5-1-0 (1-0 in UFC)
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Australia
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Country
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Armenia
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PUREBRED Omiya / Serra Jiu-Jitsu
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Team
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30 Years Old
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Age
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29 Years Old
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Sotiropoulos and Mitichyan are both veterans of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra. Sotiropoulos was defeated in the semi-finals by Tommy Speer, and Roman Mitichyan broke his elbow before the teams were even selected.
I’m going to take Mitichyan in this fight. In his UFC debut he defeated Dorian Price in 23 seconds by submission. Four of his five wins come by way of submission. Hopefully he will be able to use his superior submission skills to take Sotiropoulos out.
My Pick: Roman Mitichyan ($100 to win $135)
Welterweights:
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Tommy Speer (-295)
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Name (Odds)
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Anthony Johnson (+235)
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9-2-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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4-1 (1-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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||
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23 Years Old
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Age
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23 Years Old
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Tommy Speer made it to the finals of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra, but he lost in the finals to Mac Danzig at the 2:01 mark by submission. Before that Tommy Speer had never faced any great opponents.
Anthony Johnson also has never faced any great opponents, but he did knock out Chad "The Grinder" Reiner (17-3) at UFC Fight Night 10 in 13 seconds. That tells me he has the power to upset Tommy Speer
My Pick: Anthony Johnson ($100 to win $235)
Lightweights:
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Manny Gamburyan (-800)
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Name (Odds)
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Jeff Cox (+500)
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7-2-0 (1-1 in UFC)
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Record
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9-4-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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Strong Style Fight Team
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|
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26 Years Old
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Age
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39 Years Old
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Jeff Cox is a 39 year old police officer. Manvel Gamburyan is a 26 year old lightweight who should have won The Ultimate Fighter 5, but he dislocated his shoulder during the fight. Gamburyan will win this fight unless his shoulder pops out again. At +500 there needs to be a 16.7% chance of his shoulder dislocating to make a bet on Cox correct. I don’t think the odds are that good.
My Pick: Manny Gamburyan ($100 to win $12.50)
Light Heavyweights:
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Matt Hamill (-200)
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Name (Odds)
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Tim Boetsch (+160)
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3-1-0 (3-1 in UFC)
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Record
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7-1-0 (1-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team Punishment
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Team
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|
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31 Years Old
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Age
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26 Years Old
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Matt "The Deaf Guy From The Ultimate Fighter" Hamill vs. Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch. Both fighters are ex-amateur wrestlers who like to strike. Both have had similar careers, beating bad opponents are losing to great ones. I like Boetsch in this fight simply because of the odds. If a KO comes it really could go either way.
My Pick: Tim Boetsch ($100 to win $160)
Lightweights:
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Nate Diaz (-200)
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Name (Odds)
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Kurt Pellegrino (+160)
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8-2-0 (3-0 in UFC)
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Record
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11-3-0 (3-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
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Team
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The Armory
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22 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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These fighters have similar styles. Both are submission experts who occasionally score a win by knockout. I like Diaz and think that he deserves to be the favorite, but I’m not going to take him. Pellegrino has only lost to great fighters in the UFC (Joe Stevenson and Drew Fickett). Diaz in undefeated in the UFC, but I see his youth as a possible weakness. Along with the extra endurance that being so young brings, comes some extra stupidity. I think that gives Pellegrino a good chance to catch Diaz in this fight.
My Pick: Kurt Pellegrino ($100 to win $160)
Light Heavyweights:
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Houston Alexander (-275)
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Name (Odds)
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James Irvin (+215)
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8-2-0 (2-1 in UFC)
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Record
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13-4-0 (3-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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||
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36 Years Old
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Age
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29 Years Old
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I like Irvin in this fight. His UFC record is better than it seems. One of his losses came becase of a knee injury. Irvin is also an ex WEC heavyweight champion. Both of these guys are knockout artists (Alexander has 5 KO’s, Irvin has 9) so this should be a fun fight.
Fun facts of the night (taken from Wikipedia): "[Houston Alexander] is also a well-known hip-hop artist who is from North Omaha, Nebraska." Really? Well known by what standards?
"Alexander has also been vocal about Omaha’s lack of support for its hip hop artists." I hate to call anything a lost cause, but trying to get Omaha to embrace hip hop could possibly be just that.
My Pick: James Irvin ($100 to win $215)
The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks DREAM 1
Thursday, March 13th, 2008On Saturday the first ever DREAM mixed martial arts event will take place. DREAM 1 will feature the opening round of an excellent 16 man lightweight grand prix. So without delay, here are my picks for the 1st round of the grand prix. All of these lines come from bodoglife.com at about 12 PM Central Time on Thurday.