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May 5th, 2009 Live Pick Updates
Tuesday, May 5th, 2009
The Polish Experiment - Houston Alexander's Replacement
It has been announced that Houston Alexander has withdrawn from his UFC 98 bout against Andre Gusmao because of a broken hand. It appears that Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski will be his replacement. Other than that none of the previously written lines have changed. I will pick the Soszynski vs. Gusmao fight as soon as betting lines become available.
UFC 98 | Andre Gusmao vs. Houston Alexander | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, April 28th, 2009
The Assassin
Light Heavyweights:
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Andre Gusmao (-300 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Houston “The Assassin” Alexander (+200 at BetUs)
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5-1-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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8-4-0 (2-3 in UFC)
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Brazil
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Country
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United States
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Team
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31 Years Old
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Age
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37 Years Old
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Andre Gusmao is an IFL veteran with one fight of UFC experience. His only loss in the UFC was against the undefeated Jon Jones. Before that loss, Gusmao went 4-0 in the IFL with two impressive victories over Mike Ciesnolevicz. Gusmao is also a professor of Capoeira. What is Capoeira you ask? Here’s a quick explanation:
Omaha underground hip-hop legend Houston Alexander has had a rough time lately. Since starting his UFC career 2-0 he has lost his last three fights. His first loss was a respectable defeat against the beast that is Thiago Silva. After that he was defeated by James Irvin in 8 seconds, although some people found that stoppage to be questionable (I was not among them, although that might have something to do with me picking Irvin at +215). His most recent defeat came against Eric Schafer in a fight where Alexander started strong, but his lack of conditioning started to show only a couple of minutes into the fight (I also picked Scafer at +205).
I only mention that I picked against Alexander in his previous two fights, because I’m going to switch it up here. I really think The Assassin has a good chance of beating Andre Gusmao in this fight. He definitely has the one-in-three chance needed to pick him at +200. I’m not sure where this line is going to move, but I don’t really see it swaying too far either way. Because of this I would recommend waiting until after the weigh-in before placing a bet. I say this because Alexander came into last fight so out of shape, maybe the weigh-in will give some hint of what kind of conditioning he is in.
My Pick: Houston “The Assassin” Alexander (+200)
UPDATE: Houston Alexander was forced to pull out of this fight on May 4th citing a broken hand as the reason.