In my previous post I said I liked Kampmann at even odds, so I would definitely take him at the +115 Bodog is offering.

I barely liked Yoshida at +210, and I don’t like him at +175. +175 would mean that Yoshida would need a touch better than a 36% chance of winning to make the bet profitable. I don’t think his chances are quite that good.

Similar odds between the two books here. I like Henderson at -200 from Betus.

Maybe they just do it because they know it annoys me, but for what seems like the 10th event in a row Bodog has spelled a fighter’s name wrong. In this case they spelled Matt Hamill, "Matt Hamil". Regardless of their motive I like their odds. Previously I stated that I liked Hamill at +190, and I certainly like him at +205.

The two sites agree on this one. Rashad Evans was at +210 as recent as a couple of nights ago. Because of Liddell’s strong fan base I would actually expect Rashad’s line to creep back up there before the night of the fight. I would take Evans in this fight at these odds, but I think that by waiting on this fight the line can only become more favorable.

Hey, Bodog actually beat Betus in putting up the line for a fight! I like Ryo Chonan. I think the UFC signed him because he was the last fighter to defeat Anderson Silva by something other than disqualification. I think the UFC hopes that Chonan can win a couple of fights, so they can set up a Silva-Chonan fight that they can hype with something like, "Redemption - Anderson Silva faces off against PRIDE veteran Ryo Chonan in a chance to redeem himself against one of the four fighters that has ever defeated him."

I like Chonan in this fight for a few reasons:

• The UFC wants him to win
• Both him and Carneiro have similar records: Chonan is 14-8 and Carneiro is 12-7, but Chonan has faced tougher opponents.
• Chonan has wins over a couple of good fighters: Joey Villasenor and Hayato “Mach” Sakurai. Carneiro’s most impressive victory was against the veteran fighter Rich Clementi.
• They fought each other in 2005 and Chonan won.

You can ignore the first three reasons and just look at #4. -125 seems good for a fighter who has defeated his opponent before.

For that fight I would easily say that Chuck Liddell is the favorite, and by that I mean if UFC 88 occurred an infinite amount of times, Chuck Liddell would win the majority of the matches. The next step is determining how many of those infinite matches Liddell would win.

Because Evans has decent striking power that has been especially effective over the last three matches, I’d say that Evans would win about 15% of their matches by knockout. Additionally because Evans has shown good (but not excellent) technical skills, I’ll say that Evans would win an additional 20% of the matches by decision. So that puts my hypothetical chance of Evans winning at 35% and Liddell at 65%.

After determining the percent chance you think each fighter has of winning, the next step is to analyze the betting line and determine if any bets make sense. This part requires a little math, but bear with me.

To calculate the % Chance of victory needed to make this a good bet I use this formula:

((amount bet)/(amount to win + amount bet)) * 100

You may notice the two percentages don’t add up to 100. This is because of the "juice" of the different sportsbooks. In this example, If I would have said that I thought Rashad Evans had a 30% chance to win, and Chuck Liddell had a 70% chance to win neither Betus or Bodoglife would be offering me a good bet because of the juice. But because I think Evans has a 35% chance of winning, both Betus and Bodoglife are offering good bets, and out of those two sites Betus is offering the best odds because they will pay out $210 on a $100 bet opposed to Bodog’s $200.

Middleweights:

Kampmann made his debut at UFC - Fight Night 6 as a late replacement defeating Crafton Wallace by submission at 2:59 of round one. I give him a lot of credit for that. It’s rare to see a late replacement come in and win, and the fact the Kampmann was able to do so in a dominating fashion gives me a lot of confidence in him. His next fight was against Thales Leites (13-1). Kampmann defeated Leites by unanimous decision. Since that fight Leites has gone 4-0 in the UFC, including a win over Nate Marquardt. Kampmann’s most two recent UFC fights have been victories over Drew McFedries (7-3) and Jorge Rivera (15-7).

I like Nate Marquardt a lot. I think he is an excellent fighter who sometimes makes poor decisions. In his last fight against Thales Leites, he was docked 2 points for penalties, and he still only lost a split decision. Before that he defeated Jeremy Horn by submission at UFC 81. Horn took the fight on late notice, so I don’t place too much importance on that win. He also lost to Anderson Silva at UFC 73. So in the last 13 months Marquardt is 1-2 with his only win coming over a replacement fighter. That doesn’t instill with me a sense of confidence when I think about his chances. Add to that the fact he is the favorite, and I’ll go with Kampmann.

My Pick: Martin Kampmann (EVEN)

Middleweights:

Dan Henderson is a legend. So what if he hasn’t won a fight in 18 months? I still like him against a relative nobody at -200. My all time favorite Dan Henderson fight was his loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at PRIDE 24 - Cold Fury 3. Henderson was outweighed by around 30 pounds but he still was able to hold his own against the much larger Brazilian, until Minotauro was able to secure an armbar in the third round to win by submission. If you haven’t seen that fight I highly recommend it.

Rousimar Palhares won his UFC debut against Ivan Salaverry (12-7) at UFC 84. Before that all of his fights took place in Brazil. He has fought a couple of fighters I have heard of before. He defeated PRIDE Bushido veteran Daniel Acacio (14-6) by submission in 2007. He also defeated Fabio "I just lost to Matt Lindland at the Affliction PPV" Negao last year.

I see this fight as being a must win for Dan Henderson. If he loses to Rousimar Palhares that will mean three loses in a row for Henderson, and at 37 years old I believe that would be too much of a blow to recover from.

My Pick: Dan Henderson (-200)

Welterweights:

Yoshiyuki Yoshida hasn’t lost since December of 2005 and has knockout power. Six of his wins have come by KO or TKO. Yoshida also won his UFC debut at UFC 84 against Jon Koppenhaver (5-2).

I’m not going to lie. Karo Parisyan is an excellent fighter, but he lost me a chunk of money in his fight against Thiago Alves in April. So my breakdown of why to bet against him looks like this:

• -280 is too much for a fighter coming off of a loss.
• His technical excellence isn’t worth as much against a good striker
• He hasn’t defeated an excellent fighter in over a year and a half (As much as I hate to say it, Ryo Chonan doesn’t count)
• I hate him

Seems reasonable to me. If you feel that my rage is blinding my judgement in this fight, I won’t blame you if you go against me on this one.

Speaking of Ryo "Piranha" Chonan, I’m glad to see him in the UFC. He definitely isn’t the most talented Japanese ex-PRIDE fighter, but he was always one of my personal favorites. I have a feeling the only reason the UFC brought him over is so that he can hopefully win a match or two and get a title shot against Anderson Silva. Chonan defeated Silva in 2004, but I feel that if they ever had a rematch it would be the most lobsided rematch ever.

My Pick: Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+210)

Light Heavyweights:

I didn’t know Matt Hamill was so old. His first professional fight was in 2006. So that would make him 29 at the time of his debut. What did he do before that? His Wikipedia page says he won a Deaflympic wrestling gold medal in 2001, but that still leaves a 5 year gap. He was on The Ultimate Fighter Season 3, but I don’t remember them mentioning what he was up to for the five previous years. Regardless, he’s a badass. Let’s be honest, he’s undefeated. Regardless of what the judges said, he beat Michael Bisping at UFC 75 in England. That decision was absolutely the worst MMA decision I have ever seen outside of Japan.

Rich Franklin is an excellent fighter. He is 10-2 in the UFC with his only two losses both coming against Anderson Silva. All but two of those fights have taken place at the middleweight weight class. This fight at light heavyweight will be Franklin’s first fight at this weight since UFC 44. I don’t like that at all. I don’t think the extra weight is going to help him against a fighter who is naturally bigger than him. Add to that the fact he is a big favorite, and I am easily going to have to choose Hamill.

My Pick: Matt Hamill (+190)

Light Heavyweights:

I’m not 100% sure about this one right now. I’m leaning towards Evans, but my mind isn’t made up yet. I’ll be back closer to the date of the actual fight with my breakdown of this match, as well as breakdowns of the matches not listed here.

So I guess this is to be continued………

Grades:

Pedro Rizzo vs. Tra Telligman B

Matt Lindland vs. Falaniko Vitale B

Yves Edwards vs. Eddie Ruiz C+

Frank Mir vs. Wes Sims F

Ian Freeman vs. Vernon White C

Vitor Belfort vs. Marvin Eastman C+

Tank Abbott vs. Kimo D

Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture A

Overall: B-

This was a better than average event. Even the "bad" fights were somewhat entertaining. There weren’t any boring 15 or 25 minute fights, and that’s always a good thing. There is one must see fight on this event and that is the Lidell vs. Couture fight. Other than that there really wasn’t any UFC history being made on this card.

I know this event happened years ago, but I don’t want to give spoilers to people who don’t want them. If you want a more in depth breakdown keep reading below…

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Pedro Rizzo vs. Tra Telligman

Result: Rizzo by TKO Cut at 4:24 of Round 2

Grade: B

Good fight to start the event. I’ve seen Telligman fight on a couple of different occasions, but I had never heard the announcer talk about the elephant in the room. Telligman has only one pec. His right pectoral is completely missing. There is just a cavity. Before this fight Joe Rogan mentioned that it’s from a car accident that occurred when he was a child. I understand not wanting to make a big deal out of it, but if you’re an announcer you can’t just ignore it. Round one of this fight was a slugfest. Telligman definitely got the better of the exchanges, but Rizzo’s well timed leg kicks worked to even things out. The round ends with Rizzo suffering from a decent sized cut above his eye, and Tellingman with a discolored leg. Round two starts much the same way as round one, with both fighters exchanging blows. One of Rizzo’s punches manages to cut Tra’s cheek and Rizzo is able to secure a takedown early in the second round. From Tra’s closed guard Rizzo is able to do a considerable amount of damage to Tra’s face opening up multiple cuts. Telligman is able to get up near the middle of the round and exchanges with Rizzo until the doctor is forced to stop the fight because of a cut above Telligman’s eye near the end of the round. If it wasn’t for the blood in Telligman’s eye he was physically still in fine shape to continue.

Matt Lindland vs. Falaniko Vitale

Vitale By TKO at 1:56

Grade: B

I’d never seen this fight before, so I thought this was just great. The first 1:45 or so of this fight consisted of both competitors struggling against the side of the cage for control looking for takedown opportunities. With about 3:10 left in the first round, Lindland goes for a throw, slips and knocks himself unconscious. Awesome! Here is the video for your enjoyment:

Yves Edwards vs. Eddie Ruiz

Edwards by Unanimous Decision

Grade: C+

This wasn’t a great fight. Edwards dominated the whole time. This fight only earned a C+ because of the heart of Eddie Ruiz. Ruiz took a beating for three rounds and just kept coming. He had nothing to offer that could hurt Edwards, but he refused to give up. Also, Ruiz came from nowhere. He has a career record of 1-1, and this was his only UFC fight. His other fight was a win at Ultimate Pankration 1. Whatever the hell that is.

On a side note, is Yves Edwards the most accomplished fighter never to take on a nickname? I can’t think of anyone with half the UFC fights Yves has who doesn’t have a nickname. Am I missing someone? I guess he makes up for it by claiming his fighting style is "thug-jitsu."

Frank Mir vs. Wes Sims

Mir by DQ at 2:55 of Round 1

Grade: F

Wes Sims is an idiot. After getting dominated the first 2:30 of this fight, Sims is able to break an armbar attempt from Mir by slamming him down upon his head and what does he do? He proceeds to hold onto the side of the cage and brutally stomp Mir’s head 3-4 times. Mir is visibly dazed, and has a huge welt under his left eye. To Sims’ amazement he is disqualified. Why he thought what he did was legal is beyond me. I briefly looked for the video online and couldn’t find it. It’s actually pretty funny to watch. After this fight Sims would go on to lose twice more in the UFC before being banished to the smaller promotions.

Ian Freeman vs. Vernon White

Decision Draw

Grade: C

This was an entertaining fight overall. I only gave it a C, because both fighters were so tired after the second round that the third was void of a much action. This match marked the debut of Vernon "Tiger" White in the UFC, and was Ian Freeman’s only match to date in the UFC. Freeman was supposed to take on Ken Shamrock, but Shamrock had to withdraw three weeks before the fight due to injury. Both fighters seemed evenly matched, and put on a good show. White seemed to be better technically, while Freeman had the heavier hands. I wish the UFC would have let these two have a rematch, but what can you do?

Fun Fact: Vernon White’s career record stands at 26-32-2. I had no idea that on paper his record was so terrible. He started his career in the Pancrase organization going 1-7 in his first 8 fights. Ouch.

Vitor Belfort vs. Marvin Eastman

Belfort by TKO (Strikes) at 1:07 of Round 1

Grade: B-

About as entertaining as a one minute fight can be. Belfort caught Eastman with a knee to the head at the minute mark and followed up with strikes until the fight was stopped. Eastman seemed to think the fight was stopped early, and I agreed until I saw the size of the gash above Eastman’s eye. Just look at this thing:

Tank Abbott vs. Kimo

Kimo by Submission (Choke) at 1:59 of Round 1

Grade D

The fight starts with Kimo quickly taking Tank down and mounting him. He immediately began working a triangle choke which eventually led to Abbott tapping early in the first round. Kimo actually looked pretty good in this fight, and any fight that makes Kimo look good is a bad fight.

Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture For the UFC Interim Light Heavyweight Championship

Couture by TKO at 2:39 of Round 3

Grade A

Excellent fight. Randy Couture absolutely dominated a Chuck Liddell who was entering his prime. Couture was able to outstrike Liddell on his feet which was absolutely amazing. Liddell had nothing to offer save for a couple of random shots throughout the three rounds. This event is worth it just for the main event itself. Although I still think he’s crazy for thinking he should get paid 5-6 million to fight Fedor, a fight like this reminds you that it’s just possible that he’ll get that kind of money.

Here’s an interesting question: Is Brock Lesnar playing the WWF style heel role, or is he as big of a prick as he lets on? For those who don’t know professional wrestling insider vernacular (shame on you!) a heel is professional wrestler who acts like a villain to incite the crowd. So is this what Lesnar is doing? Is he putting on a show to make the crowd hate him knowing it will sell more PPVs and therefore raise his worth in the eyes of the UFC? Or is he really just that hateable?

I think he has to be putting on an act and intentionally playing the heel role. Even if he isn’t, at worst he is allowing himself to do things he wants to do naturally, but could easily stop if he thought they would have negative consequences on his future in the world of MMA. I don’t blame him for his actions. Fighting is a business, and if acting like a dick makes you more money it’s your right. But his choice to play the heel role when he could let his talent and massive size be his selling points seems a little misguided to me. A mediocre fighter (*cough* Phil Baroni *cough*) can keep themselves on TV by perfecting a heel act, but talented fighters have no need for a such character building exercises.

But what do I know? Maybe he really is just a dick.

Ben Saunders (-260) vs. Ryan Thomas (+200)

Ben Saunders won by armbar in the second round. This was an undercard fight that wasn’t televised, so I don’t have much to say about it, except I still can’t believe Ryan Thomas took this fight on 3 weeks rest.

Chris Wilson (-330) vs. Steve Bruno (+260)

Wilson won by unanimous decision. This fight also wasn’t televised. From reading the description of the fight Bruno kept busy, but he was just unable to get Wilson to the mat.

Andre Gusmao (-215) vs. Jon Jones (+175)

Jones won by unanimous decision. This fight wasn’t televised, but since he is currently undefeated and is also the youngest fighter under contract to the UFC look for Jon Jones to make his television debut soon.

Cheick Kongo (-500) vs. Dan Evensen (+350)

Kongo won by TKO 4:55 into the first round. If I could go back in time and change one of my picks this would be it. I had no idea that Evensen was such a piece of crap. I had my suspicions that the UFC was madly in love with Cheick Kongo, but I thought they would at least try and find somebody who would stand a chance against him. And it wouldn’t be that hard. Cheick isn’t that good of a fighter.

Luke Cummo (-140) vs. Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory (+110)

McCrory won by decision. This fight wasn’t televised, but I wish it was. On paper this may not have been the most exciting dark fight, but I’ve never seen McCrory fight before, and am interested in what he has to offer.

Demian Maia (-260) vs. Jason MacDonald (+200)

Maia won by rear-naked choke in the third round. This fight started off the televised portion of the card. Maia looked good and his superior jiu-jitsu skill was simply too much for Jason MacDonald to handle. I don’t think there is a submission fighter in the UFC that could compete with Maia. Now if you put him against a striker it could be a different story… I don’t know what the UFC has in store for Maia’s immediate future, but I am excited for when the UFC allows him to make a jump in class.

Kenny Florian (-165) vs. Roger Huerta (+135)

Florian won by unanimous decision. I really was surprised at how outclassed Huerta seemed in this fight. He had his moments, and I’m not sure a rematch in the future would go the same way, but Huerta lost every round of this fight.

Manny Gamburyan (-325) vs. Rob Emerson (+250)

Emerson won with a :12 KO. This was easily the most surprising result of the night. I still think that if these guys fought 10 times Gamburyan would win 9 (Vegas was of the opinion that Gamburyan would win about 7.6 of those fights). I hope Gamburyan learned his lesson about what happens when he tries to fight fair.

Brock Lesnar (-240) vs. Heath "The Texas Crazy Horse" Herring (+190)

Brock Lesnar dominated this whole fight winning 30-26 on every judge’s score card. I didn’t really believe in Lesnar before this fight, but this fight made me a believer. You might as well call me the driver of the Brock Lesnar bandwagon at this point. The UFC doesn’t have many top heavyweights anymore, so who is the UFC going to put in the ring against Lesnar next? Let’s assume Couture is going to follow through with his threat and never fight in the UFC again, so he’s out. Noguerira would be a good opponent, but there is no way Lesnar has earned a title shot, so he’s out. Gabriel Gonzaga and Fabricio Verdum come to mind. Of those two guys I think Verdum would be the better matchup. His jiu-jitsu skills would make for an interesting match. I personally think Gonzaga would be killed by Lesnar, but maybe that’s what the UFC wants.

Georges St. Pierre (-340) vs. Jon Fitch (+260)

St. Pierre won by decision winning every round of every judge’s score card. That said, I think Fitch had a chance to steal this fight. He opened up a massive cut above St. Pierre’s eye in the 4th round that could have led to major trouble for the champ if he was able to follow through and cause more damage…. but that didn’t happen.

Personally I thought UFC 87 was a great event. One of the best UFC PPVs of the year. The Lesnar fight alone was worth the cost.

Welterweights:

Luke Cummo is 6-5 with no notable victories, yet he’s the favorite? Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory is 8-1 with his only loss coming against old school Shooto/Pancrase/PRIDE veteran Akihiro Gono. I’ll take "The Barn Cat" in this one.

I only have one question. Why call yourself "Barn Cat"? I like the uniqueness, but don’t see the fear inspiring potential.

My Pick: Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory (+110)

Heavyweights:

I don’t know what to think about Cheick Kongo. He has some impressive victories in the UFC including back-to-back wins over Assuerio Silva and the enormous headcase Mirko Cro Cop. That said, I think he looked terrible in his most recent fight against Heath Herring.

The UFC appears to like Kongo because they are putting him in the ring with newcomer Dan Evensen. Evensen’s most recent fight was a victory over Konstantin Gluhov (2-2) for BodogFight in November. Evensen has no notable victories, but six of his ten victories come by way of knockout. It doesn’t take a lot for me to take a fighter at +350, and Evensen’s knockout ability is enough for me.

By the way, Kongo trains at Quoniam Gym which is also Quinton "Rampage" Jackson’s gym. Maybe Rampage’s temporary insanity had a negative effect on his training?

My Pick: Dan Evensen (+350)

Light Heavyweights:

Two undefeated guys here. Neither with UFC caliber experience. Let’s break them down:

Gusmao is an IFL veteran who went 4-0 in the now defunct promotion. Gusmao has two notable victories over Mike Ciesnolevicz (15-3). Gusmao is 31 frickin’ years old. Why did he start his MMA career so late? Gusmao has one of those mean looking Brazilian shoulder tattoos.

Jon Jones is the youngest fighter currently under contract with the UFC. Jones has no notable victories. Jones was a JUCO National Wrestling Champion. Jones has a 4 fight deal with the UFC, so they at least see some potential in him.

Straight up I would take Gusmao in this one, but with the odds I’m going to go with Jones. He hasn’t been tested like Gusmao has, but his strong wrestling background and youth (read: extra energy) could lead to victory.

My Pick: Jon Jones (+175)

Welterweights:

I don’t like this fight.

Wilson has the better pedigree, but in his UFC debut he was fed to the wolves when he had to fight Jon Fitch. Before his UFC debut, Wilson had some fights in the IFL with his most notable victory probably coming over Rory Markham. If you can’t remember who Markham is, he is the fighter who was awarded the Knockout of the Night for his headkick against Brodie Farber at the UFC event on July 19th.

Before becoming an MMA fighter, Steve Bruno was a Naval Air Crewman / Rescue Swimmer for the U.S. Navy. He has never faced any great competition, but has won four fights in a row. He does have stopping power with six of his wins coming by knockout and four by submission.

Straight up I would take Wilson, but I am not going to take a fighter at -330 who is 0-1 in the UFC.

My Pick: Steve Bruno (+260)

Welterweights:

Bodoglife has Ben Saunders listed as "Ben Sanders". I don’t like that. I also didn’t like Saunders in The Ultimate Fighter. Normally that would be enough reason for me to take Thomas, but get a hold of this: Thomas fought three weeks ago. Not three months ago, but three weeks ago. In fact, Thomas has had five fights this year. Although I respect Thomas for his willingness to get out there and work, that many fights can’t be a good thing when you are facing a fighter who is officially undefeated. I’ll take the favorite here.

My Pick: Ben Saunders (-260)

Lightweights:

I love Manny Gamburyan. Want to know why? Skip ahead to 2:10 of this video:

A lot of people might see that as cheap. I say grow a pair. Does the ref not say at the beginning of every fight, "Protect yourself at all times." Just because it has become a tradition to touch gloves a SECOND TIME to start a fight doesn’t mean an intelligent fighter should pay any attention to that. How did that stupid tradition start anyway? What if I wanted to touch gloves a third time or do whatever they call the traditional Muay Thai ceremonial stuff after the fight started. Would the other fighter be declared cheap if he took a shot at me?

Gamburyan only has 2 losses in his career. One was against Sean Sherk in 2001. He was also beat by Nate Diaz in 2007 when he dislocated his shoulder during their fight.

Rob Emerson is a scumbag, and not a very good fighter. The only way I see Gamburyan losing is if his shoulder slips out. I’ll assume (hope? pray?) that the shoulder problem was a one time thing and pick Gamburyan in this fight

My Pick: Manny Gamburyan (-325)

Middleweights:

Bodoglife.com lists this as a fight of "Damian" Maia vs. Jason "McDonald", but what can you do? Can you really expect the employees of the largest sportsbook on the web to spell check the names of the fighters.

Demian Maia is a world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner. In his first two UFC fights he won Submission of the Night. Jason MacDonald usually wins his fights by submission, but against a fighter of Maia’s caliber I don’t think a submission will be possible. I think the UFC is tossing Maia a bone here and trying to build up his reputation before putting him in the cage against a figher whose style could cause him trouble. I see Maia easily winning this fight by submission.

My Pick: Demian "Damian" Maia (-260)

Lightweights:

This has the potential to be a great fight.

This fight can really go either way, but I am going to take Roger Huerta for a couple of reasons. First, I always think the lines for The Ultimate Fighter alumni tend to be a little inflated. I think that is the case here also. Florian is a great fighter, and in general, he has faced tougher competition than Roger Huera, but making him -165 seems a little steep to me. Huerta is undefeated in the UFC, and he hasn’t lost since 2001. For those reasons I am going to have to go with Roger Huerta in this one.

Fun Fact From Wikipedia: "On April 5, 2007, at UFC Fight Night 9 Florian defeated Japanese fighter Dokonjonosuke Mishima via rear naked choke submission. In the interview after this fight, Florian can be seen pretending to drink Xyience energy drink. The can was clearly unopened."

My Pick: Roger Huerta (+135)

Heavyweights:

Brock "WWE Champion" Lesnar being the favorite in this fight amuses me. He has proven nothing in the world of MMA, yet he is a favorite against MMA veteran Heath Herring. Herring may not have won every match he has ever had, but he has fought top class fighters such as: Evan Tanner, Vitor Belfort, Mark Kerr, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria, Igor Vovchanchyn, Fedor Emelianenko, and Mirko Filipovic. I don’t think Brock Lesnar is going to have anything that will surprise Herring, and I think Herring will eventually be able to use his experience to secure a submission much like Frank Mir did in Lesnar’s UFC debut. Lesnar’s only chance is to knock Herring out, and Herring hasn’t been knocked out his he fought Cro Cop in 2003.

I’ll take Herring in this fight, and I’ll make this my pick of the week.

Fun Fact: Brock Lesnar hates planes and gays

My Pick: Heath Herring (+190)

Welterweights:

Georges St. Pierre used to be one of my favorite fighters to cheer for. It may sound like MMA blasphemy, but the amount of whining that came from his camp trying to explain why he lost to Matt Serra really annoyed me. Maybe every word of it was true. I really don’t know, and I really don’t care. Now I can’t look at him without thinking of Sasha Baron Cohen’s character in Talledega Nights. But that has nothing to do with me handicapping this fight.

I’m taking Fitch in this fight, and I’ll tell you why:

• Fitch is undefeated in the UFC
• Fitch is a big underdog ($10 would win you $26)
• Fitch hasn’t lost in 5.5 years
• There are so many HUGE St. Pierre fans out there, that I don’t think this line could ever be right. +260 isn’t that extreme, but I’d put Fitch more around +180 or so

If it was even money I’d take St. Pierre, but just barely. For all of his great strengths St. Pierre is starting to show himself as more and more of a headcase.

My Pick: Jon Fitch (+260)

I’m working on a UFC 87 preview that I should have up on this site by Thursday at the latest. But until then, here is a video of Heath Herring discussing how he thinks the Lesnar fight will go:

Right now Heath Herring is +210 at Bodoglife.com compared to Brock Lesnar’s -270. I think the odds for Herring are too good.

I’ve always thought that Herring is a top ten fighter, and I still do. MMA Weekly has Aleksander Emelianenko as their #10 heavyweight, and Sherdog.com has Ben Rothwell as their #10. Herring wouldn’t be a favorite over either of those fighters? Really?

I like Herring’s chances in this fight. Although he is mostly known as a striker, Herring has won a number of fights in the past by submission. I think his extra submission skills could give him what he needs to beat a fighter like Lesnar. I’ll take +210 in a heartbeat.