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Archive for June, 2009
« Previous EntriesSure Thing Gone Wrong – Tim Sylvia vs. Ray Mercer Video
Sunday, June 14th, 2009So, I guess my sure thing wasn’t quite so. When I wrote the original post, I had no idea that Sylvia was coming into this fight weighing over 300 pounds (the MMA heavyweight weight limit is 265 pounds). That extra weight didn’t help him, because Mercer was able to knock him out in 9 seconds.
Here is a fan video of the bout:
UFC 99 Pick Recap
Sunday, June 14th, 2009Spencer Fisher defeats Caol Uno by unanimous decision
I picked Caol Uno. I’m calling shenanigans on this one. Both MMAWeekly.com and Sherdog.com had Caol Uno winning by decision, but the judges in Germany didn’t see it that way.
Mirko Cro Cop defeats Mostapha Al-turk by 1st round TKO
I liked Al-turk in this one. It was an iffy pick, and it didn’t end up paying off.
Cain Velasquez defeats Cheick Kongo by unanimous decision
I liked the undefeated Velasquez in this contest. Kongo had Velasquez hurt a few times, but he was never able to take advantage of it. Velasquez won this bout handily.
Rich Franklin defeats Wanderlei Silva by unanimous decision
I picked Franklin. This fight was closer than I thought it would be (Sherdog.com actually had Silva winning by split decision). Franklin ended up being about a -150 favorite when the fight started, and I thought he would look more dominant than he did. But he won, so how much can I really complain?
Although my picks didn’t turn a profit I am still happy with them. If the Uno decision would have gone the other way everything would have turned out fine.
UFC 99 | Mirko Cro Cop vs. Mostapha Al-turk | Gambling Pick
Friday, June 12th, 2009
Can this man cause Cro Cop's third UFC loss in a row?
Heavyweights:
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Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (-400 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Mostapha Al-turk (+250 at BetUs)
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24-6-2 (1-2 in UFC)
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Record
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6-4 (0-1 in UFC)
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Croatia
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Country
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England
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Cro Cop Squad Gym
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Team
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London Shootfighters
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34 Years Old
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Age
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35 Years Old
|
I’ll make this short and sweet. Cro Cop is a total headcase, especially when it comes to the UFC. His two most recent UFC fights were losses to Gabriel Gonzaga and Cheick Kongo. If he can’t beat fighters of that caliber, I don’t think it is a guarantee that he will be able to defeat an ex Cage Rage Heavyweight Champion like Al-turk. To be a good pick at +250 Al-turk needs a 29% chance of winning. Because of Cro Cop’s recent UFC performances I think he meets those odds.
My Pick: Mostapha Al-turk (+250)
June 13, 2009 Sure Thing
Friday, June 12th, 2009
How crappy of a main event is this going to be?
I don’t know for sure what is going to happen at UFC 99 this weekend. But I do know the result of one bout taking place at Adrenaline III this Saturday. 48 year old “Merciless” Ray Mercer is scheduled to fight Tim Sylvia, and he doesn’t stand an ice cube’s chance in hell of winning. Mercer has only one previous MMA fight, and that was a 1 round loss to Kimbo Slice. I haven’t been able to find any sports book taking bets on this fight, and if they do I expect Sylvia to be somewhere in the -2000 range, but there is no way that he can lose. If you happen to find this bet out there somewhere, be sure to jump on it.
UFC 99 | Betting Line Update | 6-11-09
Thursday, June 11th, 2009
Wanderlei's action figure looks much cooler than Franklin's. Don't you think?
| Rich Franklin | Wanderlei Silva |
| -145 at BetUs (Previously -150) | +105 at BetUs (Previously +110) |
Comment: Jeeze! I didn’t think that Franklin’s odds were going to dip any more. I still love Franklin, but he has been sliding so fast I would recommend you wait at this point and hope his line goes down a little more.
UFC 99 | Spencer Fisher vs. Caol Uno | Gambling Pick
Wednesday, June 10th, 2009
Caol Uno - Uno Shoten
Lightweights:
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Spencer “The King” Fisher (-225 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Caol “Uno Shoten” Uno (+175 at BetUs)
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22-4-0 (7-3 in UFC)
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Record
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25-11-4 (2-3-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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Japan
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Miletich Martial Arts
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Team
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Wajyutsu Keisyukai Tokyo
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33 Years Old
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Age
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34 Years Old
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Japanese fighters tend to have problems when they come to the UFC. In fact there has never been a Japanese UFC title holder. Given the high quality of fights that take place in Japan, I find that surprising. That said, I think Caol Uno has a decent chance in his matchup against Spencer Fisher. All of Uno’s UFC bouts occurred in 2003 or earlier, so don’t be scared of his UFC record. I also think he has a large technical advantage over Spencer Fisher. If Uno can avoid getting knocked out I think that he should be able to take this fight by submission or decision. I think that makes him worth the +175 he is currently at.
Fun Fact #1: Spencer Fisher lists himself as having a “Black Belt in Hillbilly Wrassling.”
Fun Fact #2: As part of the UFC’s Bio page for Caol Uno they ask him “What was your job before you started fighting?” The answer he gives is “I was a student of a special school.” I don’t know what this means, but I demand more information. What kind of special school? A ninja school of some type?
My Pick: Caol Uno (+175)
UFC 99 | Betting Line Update | 6-10-09
Wednesday, June 10th, 2009
Mini Ace
| Rich Franklin | Wanderlei Silva |
| -150 at BetUs (Previously -155) | +110 at BetUs (Previously +115) |
Comment: I picked Franklin to win at -155, so I obviously still like him at -150. If you like Franklin, I’d recommend placing a bet now. I really don’t see the line sliding any more.
UFC 99 | Cheick Kongo vs. Cain Velasquez | Gambling Pick
Wednesday, June 10th, 2009
Cain Velasquez Was a 2 Time All-American Wrestler for the Sun Devils
Heavyweights:
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Cain Velasquez (-200 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Cheick Kongo (+160 at BetUs)
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5-0-0 (3-0 in UFC)
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Record
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14-4-1 (7-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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France
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American Kickboxing Academy
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Team
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Wolfslair MMA Academy
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26 Years Old
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Age
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34 Years Old
|
I have never been a big Kongo fan. If you take away his win over Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic he doesn’t have any wins over top-tier opponents. He is also taking this fight on short notice because Heath Herring had to drop out because of an injury. Fighters taking fights on short notice can never really be trusted. Hell, if Kongo had a whole training camp to prepare I don’t think he would be worth more than +160. Another interesting thing to look at is Kongo’s two UFC losses. One was a respectable split decision loss against Heath Herring, but his other loss was against Carmelo “Who?” Marrero. Velasquez is young and somewhat untested, but I think he is a decent pick at -200
My Pick: Cain Velasquez (-200)
UFC 99 | Rich Franklin vs. Wanderlei Silva | Gambling Pick
Monday, June 8th, 2009
A UFC event in Germany? This should be interesting...
195 Pounds (Catchweight):
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Rich “Ace” Franklin (-155 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva (+115 at BetUs)
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24-4-0 (11-3 in UFC)
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Record
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32-9-1 (2-4 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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Brazil
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Team Extreme
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Team
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Wand Fight Team
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34 Years Old
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Age
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32 Years Old
|
Wanderlei Silva is a living legend, but he is overvalued at +115 against Rich Franklin. Silva has lost 4 of his last 5 fights, and he has never fared well in the UFC octagon. On top of that he is facing a fighter whose only four losses are against Dan Henderson (in a split decision), Anderson Silva (twice), and Lyoto Machida.
I see only two ways for Silva to win this fight. The first way is by a surprise devastating knockout. The Axe Murderer will always have his killer knee strikes. The second possibility is that Rich Franklin is past his prime, and Silva will be able to compete with him technically. I don’t see this happening. At -155 Franklin needs a 61% chance of winning. I definitely thinks he has this chance.
My Pick: Rich Franklin (-155)
WEC 41 Pick Recap
Sunday, June 7th, 2009Josh Grispi defeats Jens Pulver by submission
I picked Grispi, and this fight only lasted 33 seconds. I think Pulver’s career should be over. I cannot imagine any top 10 competitors that he can match up with.
Mike Brown defeats Urijah Faber by unanimous decision
I liked Faber in this one, and if he wouldn’t have broken his right hand in the first round I think Faber would have pulled it off. He still was able to make it a relatively close fight even though he was at an extreme disadvantage. If I had to pick this fight again I would make the exact same decision.
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