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Archive for May, 2009
UFC 98 | Betting Line Updates | 5-21-09
Thursday, May 21st, 2009
Live and Know... I guess that makes sense.
First off, the Dave Kaplan vs. George Roop currently is not available on BetUs.com. The fight doesn’t appear to have been canceled, so I am going to assume it was taken down while they consider adjusting the line. FYI, the line is Roop -165, Kaplan +135 at bodoglife.com. I would take Roop at -165, but just barely.
| Phillipe Nover | Kyle Bradley |
| -330 at BetUs (Previously -350) | +220 at BetUs (Previously +225) |
Comment: I hate to keep mentioning this, but you do know that Bradley was +300 a week ago, right? That said, +220 isn’t that much different than +225. So I still like Bradley at these odds. I don’t that the line is going to slide that much more, and I actually think there is a decent chance that it will start to creep back up towards +300. So unless you had to make a bet now, I would recommend holding off.
UFC 98 | Lyoto Machida vs. Rashad Evans | Gambling Pick
Wednesday, May 20th, 2009
Sugar
Light Heavyweights:
|
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-200 at BetUs)
|
Name (Odds)
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“Sugar” Rashad Evans (+150 at BetUs)
|
|
14-0-0 (6-0 in UFC)
|
Record
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13-0-1 (8-0-1 in UFC)
|
|
Brazil
|
Country
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United States
|
|
Black House
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Team
|
Jackson’s Submission Fighting
|
|
30 Years Old
|
Age
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29 Years Old
|
Lyoto Machida has a great record. He beat Stephan Bonnar and Rich Franklin in 2003. He defeated B.J. Penn in an open weight bout in 2005. He won a decision over Tito Ortiz in 2008, and knocked out Thiago Silva in January of this year. Rashad Evans also has an impressive record. He beat Stephan Bonnar in 2006, fought Tito Ortiz to a draw and beat the previously undefeated Michael Bisping in 2007. In 2008 he knocked out Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin.
Overall I’d have to say Lyoto Machida has a slightly more impressive body of work. And when you’re looking at two undefeated fighters that means a lot. But at +150 I think Rashad Evans is an easy pick. At +150 Rashad needs a 40% chance of victory to make it a good bet. And personally I’d put his odds somewhere in the 45%-50% range.
My Pick: Rashad Evans (+150)
UFC 98 | Betting Line Updates | 5-20-09
Wednesday, May 20th, 2009
I'm not sure, but this poster may not be 100% accurate
| Dave Kaplan | George Roop |
| +120 at BetUs (Previously +110) | -160 at BetUs (Previously -150) |
Comment: I still like Roop at -160, but if the line slides any more I might have a different opinion.
| Phillipe Nover | Kyle Bradley |
| -350 at BetUs (Previously -400) | +225 at BetUs (Previously +250) |
Comment: Geeze! Bradley was at +300 less than a week ago. At +225 I don’t know what to do. I guess I still have to like Bradley, but if you didn’t get in at +250 or better why bother now? Another option would be to wait a couple of days to see where the line moves. Because it has jumped so much over the last 7 days, I really can’t see it not staying put until Saturday.
UFC 98 | Patrick Barry vs. Tim Hague | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, May 19th, 2009
Do you think Patrick Barry is practicing the Tiger Knee?
Heavyweights:
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Patrick “Get Hype” Barry (-330 at BetUs)
|
Name (Odds)
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Tim “The Thrashing Machine” Hague (+220 at BetUs)
|
|
4-0-0 (1-0 in UFC)
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Record
|
9-1-0 (0-0 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
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Canada
|
|
Roufusport
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Team
|
|
|
29 Years Old
|
Age
|
26 Years Old
|
Patrick Barry is an accomplished kickboxer who accumulated a record of 18-6 including bouts in K-1 and the World Combat League. Titles he has acquired include the 2008 Combat USA Heavyweight championship, 2005 Kings of Kickboxing tournament championship, 2004 U.S. Open Sanshou champion, and 2003 U.S. Open Sanshou championship. That said, he doesn’t have a whole lot of MMA experience. He has only had 4 MMA fights, and his only UFC win was over the unheralded Dan Evensen.
King of the Cage Canada Heavyweight Champion Tim Hague has a lot more experience than Patrick Barry, but he does not have any notable victories. He defeated Ruben “Warpath” Villareal in 2007, but that doesn’t really count for much. His only defeat was a split decision loss to Miodrag Petkovic. He later ended up avenging that loss in October of 2008. Hague has a lot of finishing power. 5 of his 9 wins have come by way of (T)KO, and 2 of his wins have come by submission.
I like Hague’s combination of experience, stopping power, and odds. At +220 Hague only needs about a 32% chance of winning to make this a good bet, and I think he has that chance.
Fun Fact: Patrick Barry lists Sagat as one of his three heroes.
My Pick: Tim Hague (+220)
UFC 98 | Dave Kaplan vs. George Roop | Gambling Pick
Sunday, May 17th, 2009
Maybe you can buy this game with your winnings?
Lightweights:
|
Dave Kaplan (+110 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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George Roop (-150 at BetUs)
|
|
2-2 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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8-4 (0-1 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team
|
||
|
29 Years Old
|
Age
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27 Years Old
|
Dave Kaplan and George Roop are both veterans of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir. Dave Kaplan’s one UFC defeat came against Junie Browning by second round submission. George Roop’s one loss was a split decision defeat at the hands of Shane Nelson. I see Kaplan as being the much better fighter in the matchup, and I think he earns his odds at -150. Now onto the important stuff
Fun Fact #1: Dave Kaplan appeared on and won NBC’s The Singing Bee. (I swear that’s not why I picked against him)
Fun Fact #2: According to the indisputable Wikipedia George Roop wrestled at 112 lbs. in high school AND was his school’s quarterback. Unfortunately I do not have video of a 112 pound kid playing quarterback.
My Pick: George Roop (-150)
UFC 98 | Betting Line Updates | 5-17-09
Sunday, May 17th, 2009
I think it's kind of an ugly poster. Any thoughts?
| Matt Hughes | Matt Serra |
| -275 at BetUs (Previously -250) | +190 at BetUs (Previously +185) |
Comment: I thought Serra was an OK pick at +185. I like him a little more at +190
| Phillipe Nover | Kyle Bradley |
| -400 at BetUs (Previously -500) | +250 at BetUs (Previously +300) |
Comment: From my previous post: I don’t think that Bradley will stay at +300, so if you like him at those odds, I would recommend making the bet right now. See! Sometimes I do know what I’m talking about. That said, I still like Bradley at +250.
UFC 98 | Sean Sherk vs. Frank Edgar | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, May 5th, 2009
The Answer at UFC 78
Lightweights:
|
Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk (-300 at BetUs)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (+200 at BetUs)
|
|
33-3-1 (6-3 in UFC)
|
Record
|
9-1-0 (4-1 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Minnesota Martial Arts Academy
|
Team
|
|
|
35 Years Old
|
Age
|
27 Years Old
|
Sean Sherk is a great fighter, but he has a couple of things going against him. For one, he’s getting older. At 35 it is possible that the Muscle Shark is past his prime. Not every fighter can be Randy Couture. Also, since Sherk was suspending for steroid use he only has a record of 1-1 with his one victory coming over Tyson Griffin, a fighter that Frank Edgar has also defeated.
Frank Edgar only has one loss in the UFC and that was against the undefeated Gray Maynard. I think that makes him a strong pick at +200. To be +200 Edgar only needs at 33% chance of winning, and I don’t think that Sherk deserves to be anywhere near that large of a favorite.
I’m not sure where this line is going to move, but personally I would make the bet at these odds hoping that they move away from the Muscle Shark’s favor.
My Pick: Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (+200)
May 5th, 2009 Live Pick Updates
Tuesday, May 5th, 2009
The Polish Experiment - Houston Alexander's Replacement
It has been announced that Houston Alexander has withdrawn from his UFC 98 bout against Andre Gusmao because of a broken hand. It appears that Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski will be his replacement. Other than that none of the previously written lines have changed. I will pick the Soszynski vs. Gusmao fight as soon as betting lines become available.
UFC 98 | James Irvin vs. Drew McFedries | Gambling Pick
Monday, May 4th, 2009
This fight is cancelled, but I would have gone with The Sandman
Middleweights:
|
James “The Sandman” Irvin (-165 at BetUs)
|
Name (Odds)
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Drew “The Massacre” McFedries (+125 at BetUs)
|
|
14-5-0 (4-4 in UFC)
|
Record
|
7-5-0 (3-4 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Capital City Fighting Alliance
|
Team
|
Miletich Martial Arts
|
|
30 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
UPDATE: Even though BetUs is still taking bets this fight has been cancelled because of an injury suffered by James Irvin.