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Archive for April, 2009
UFC 98 | Andre Gusmao vs. Houston Alexander | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, April 28th, 2009
The Assassin
Light Heavyweights:
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Andre Gusmao (-300 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Houston “The Assassin” Alexander (+200 at BetUs)
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5-1-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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8-4-0 (2-3 in UFC)
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Brazil
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Country
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United States
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Team
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||
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31 Years Old
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Age
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37 Years Old
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Andre Gusmao is an IFL veteran with one fight of UFC experience. His only loss in the UFC was against the undefeated Jon Jones. Before that loss, Gusmao went 4-0 in the IFL with two impressive victories over Mike Ciesnolevicz. Gusmao is also a professor of Capoeira. What is Capoeira you ask? Here’s a quick explanation:
Omaha underground hip-hop legend Houston Alexander has had a rough time lately. Since starting his UFC career 2-0 he has lost his last three fights. His first loss was a respectable defeat against the beast that is Thiago Silva. After that he was defeated by James Irvin in 8 seconds, although some people found that stoppage to be questionable (I was not among them, although that might have something to do with me picking Irvin at +215). His most recent defeat came against Eric Schafer in a fight where Alexander started strong, but his lack of conditioning started to show only a couple of minutes into the fight (I also picked Scafer at +205).
I only mention that I picked against Alexander in his previous two fights, because I’m going to switch it up here. I really think The Assassin has a good chance of beating Andre Gusmao in this fight. He definitely has the one-in-three chance needed to pick him at +200. I’m not sure where this line is going to move, but I don’t really see it swaying too far either way. Because of this I would recommend waiting until after the weigh-in before placing a bet. I say this because Alexander came into last fight so out of shape, maybe the weigh-in will give some hint of what kind of conditioning he is in.
My Pick: Houston “The Assassin” Alexander (+200)
UPDATE: Houston Alexander was forced to pull out of this fight on May 4th citing a broken hand as the reason.
UFC 98 | Phillipe Nover vs. Kyle Bradley | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, April 28th, 2009
How Can A Guy With His Own T-Shirt Lose?
Lightweights:
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Phillipe Nover (-500 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Kyle Bradley (+300 at BetUs)
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5-1-1 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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13-6-0 (0-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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Team Voodoo
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25 Years Old
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Age
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26 Years Old
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Phillipe Nover made a name for himself by making it to the lightweight finals of TUF: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir. He was defeated in the finals by the undefeated Efrain Escudero. Other than that he really doesn’t really have any notable bouts.
Kyle Bradley is a knockout artist who I definitely think is being undervalued at +300. Although he doesn’t have any wins in the UFC, his two losses came against Chris Lytle and Joe Lauzon. Both of whom definitely are not push overs. Eight of Bradley’s twelve wins have come by knockout. This combined with the extra fight experience he has compared to Nover makes him an easy pick for me at +300.
I don’t think that Bradley will stay at +300, so if you like him at those odds, I would recommend making the bet right now. I’m not sure what the result of this fight will be, but I expect Bradley to feel the fear and do it anyway.
Fun Fact: This is the only UFC fight I can where I don’t think either guy has a well known nickname. Am I wrong?
My Pick: Kyle Bradley (+300)
UFC 98 | Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Brandon Wolff | Gambling Pick
Monday, April 27th, 2009
Ex Navy Seal Brandon Wolff
Welterweights:
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Yoshiyuki “Zenko” Yoshida (-500 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Brandon Wolff (+300 at BetUs)
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10-3-0 (1-1 in UFC)
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Record
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7-3-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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Japan
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Country
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United States
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Tokyo Yellow Mans
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Team
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MMAD
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34
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Age
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33
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Yoshiyuki Yoshida is a good fighter trying to make a name for himself in the UFC. His first UFC bout was a win over War Machine at UFC 84. After that he fought and was knocked out by Josh Koscheck at UFC – Fight for the Troops in December of 2008. Other than that Yoshida has notable victories over Dan Hardy, Akira Kikuchi, Matt Cain, and Katsuya Inoue.
Brandon Wolff has had a less distinguished career. The Hawaiian native doesn’t really have any great victories, but he has won 4 of his last five fights with the only loss during that period coming against the undefeated Ben Saunders. Wolff also has some knockout power. Three of his seven wins have come by TKO.
I don’t think that Wolff is the most likely winner in this fight, but given he is +300 I think he just barely has the 25% chance of victory he needs to make this a good bet. This is a line I will definitely be keeping a close eye on as UFC 98 draws closer.
My Pick: Brandon Wolff (+300)
UFC 98 | Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra | Gambling Pick
Friday, April 24th, 2009
The Terror
Welterweights:
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Matt Hughes (-250 at BetUs)
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Name (Odds)
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Matt “The Terror” Serra (+185 at BetUs)
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42-7-0 (14-5 in UFC)
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Record
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9-5-0 (6-5 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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HIT Squad
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Team
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Serra Jiu-Jitsu
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35 Years Old
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Age
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34 Years Old
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A potentially washed up fighter versus a potentially overrated fighter. I can’t say I’m really in love with this match up. Matt Serra jumped to the top of the welterweight division with an unbelievable showing against Georges St. Pierre at UFC 69 in 2007. After that fight he was forced to take over a year off because of injury before stepping into the ring and losing a rematch to St. Pierre. Other than those two fights, Serra has had a pretty much undistinguished career.
Matt Hughes stood on top of the UFC welterweight division starting with his win over Carlos Newton in 2001, and ending with his loss to Georges St. Pierre in 2006. Sure, he lost to B.J. Penn during that period, but he was able to avenge that defeat. What I really don’t like about Hughes is the fact that he has lost three of his last four fights. I can’t help but think there is a chance that Hughes doesn’t quite have the hunger that he used to, and because of this I really can’t take him at -250.
At +185 I thnk that Serra is a decent value for the money.
Fun Fact: In 2000 Matt Serra became the first American to be awarded a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu by Renzo “Matt’s Favorite” Gracie.
My Pick: Matt “The Terror” Serra (+185)