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Archive for September, 2008
« Previous EntriesUFC 89 | Keith Jardine vs. Brandon Vera | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, September 30th, 2008
Keith Jardine
Light Heavyweights:
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Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (+145 at BetUs, +150 at BodogLife)
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Name (Odds)
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Brandon “The Truth” Vera (-185 at BetUs, -180 at BodogLife)
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13-4-1 (5-3 in UFC)
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Record
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9-2-0 (5-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Jackson’s Submission Fighting
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Team
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City Boxing
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32 Years Old
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Age
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30 Years Old
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Keith Jardine has impressive wins over both Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, but the betting line still makes him the underdog in this fight. That probably has something to do with Jardine’s get a knockout or be knocked out theory of MMA fighting. Along with those two impressive wins Jardine has also suffered two less than impressive losses against Houston Alexander and Wanderlei Silva. Although in his defense the fighters that seem to have given him the most trouble are fighters with striking skills equal to or greater than his own. I don’t believe that Vera’s knockout abilities are as great as either Silva or Alexander.
Brandon Vera is an excellent fighter, but he simply has not defeated fighters of the caliber that Jardine has. He defeated a post-motorcycle accident Frank Mir in 2006, but who really knows what that means? Vera has also fought and lost to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum, but how much credit can you give a fighter for losses?
I like Jardine’s odds in this one. I’m not even convinced that Vera should be the favorite. Be sure to check out the Live Odds to see the up to the second betting lines for this fight.
My Pick: Keith Jardine (+150 at BodogLife)
EliteXC | Kimbo Slice vs. Ken Shamrock | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, September 30th, 2008
I sure used to look tough, didn't I?
Heavyweights:
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Ken “The World’s Most Dangerous Man” Shamrock (+250 at BetUs, +250 at BodogLife)
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Name (Odds)
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Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson (-350 at BetUs, -350 at BodogLife)
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26-13-2
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Record
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3-0-0
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United States
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Country
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Bahamas
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Lion’s Den
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Team
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44 Years Old
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Age
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34 Years Old
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This October 4th Ken Shamrock will face Kimbo Slice as the main event of the EliteXC card, and I don’t think that Shamrock has a snowball’s chance of hell of winning. The last few years have not been kind of MMA legend Ken Shamrock. He has lost his last five fights in a row, and seven of his last eight. He hasn’t won since June of 2004 when he defeated MMA never-been Kimo Leopoldo. Shamrock’s last fight was a loss to the nobody Robert "Buzz" Berry at a Cage Rage event in March.
I know that Kimbo has only had three matches and that he almost lost to James "The Colossus" Thompson during his last fight, but I don’t think he has anything to worry about is his match against Shamrock. Shamrock’s only chance of winning is to take Kimbo to the mat, and because of the size difference I think there is very little chance of that happening. And even in the worse case scenario that it did happen, I think that Kimbo’s trainer Bas Rutten, who has faced Shamrock twice, has hopefully taught him enough to survive such a situation.
With the odds that Kimbo Slice is getting I would be very tempted to place the maximum bet on him. (Currently $100 with BodogLife, and I’m not sure what it is with BetUs).
My Pick: Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson (-350)
UFC 90 Early Thoughts
Thursday, September 25th, 2008Currently BetUs.com has Anderson "The Spider" Silva at -1200 for his match against Patrick Cote that will take place at UFC 90. My first thought after looking at that line is "is Cote really that bad?" Patrick Cote has a record of 13-4 with six of his wins coming by way of knockout. He has a UFC record of 4-3, which isn’t that great but he does have a four fight UFC winning streak.
For -1200 to be a good bet Anderson Silva would need to have at 92.3% of winning to make the bet profitable. I’m not willing to believe that his odds are that good. I’ll be interested to see what Bodog puts this line at when their odds come out.
The Bow Tie Betting Store is now Open!
Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008The Bow Tie Betting Store is now open. It offers a large selection of MMA DVDs and books at low prices. Give it a look!
The Live Odds Have Been Updated
Thursday, September 18th, 2008The live odds have been updated to include every event that BodogLife.com and BetUs.com now offer. Be sure to bookmark that page, because it is the only place you can find comparative live odds on the web (that I know of…).
Ultimate Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer Quick Thoughts
Thursday, September 18th, 2008- I wish the telecast would have been three hours. Both the knockout of the night (Alessio Sakara) and submission of the night (Wilson Gouveia) occurred on the dark undercard
- Houston Alexander’s stint in the UFC has to be over, right? Maybe you can keep him around to fight other strikers, but a fighter with three consecutive losses shouldn’t be in the UFC.
- I didn’t believe all of the hype about Clay Guida before yesterday, but he seems to be legit. I’ve seen young (18-21 year old) fighters with his kind of energy, but to have his energy at 27 is absurd.
- Nate Diaz is going to be insanely good. He’s far from unbeatable now, but give him a few more years of experience and he will be among the very best of the lightweight division.
- Did anybody watch the premiere of The Ultimate Fighter afterwords? How stupid is Clay Guida’s brother?
- If you would have put equal money on my four picks from last night you would have shown a 13.75% profit.
UFN | Clay Guida vs. Mac Danzig | Gambling Pick
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008
The Carpenter
Lightweights:
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Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (-155 at BetUs, -140 at BodogLife)
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Name (Odds)
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Mac Danzig (+125 at BetUs, +110 at BodogLife)
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23-9-0 (3-3 in UFC)
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Record
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18-4-1 (2-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Hellhouse
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Team
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27 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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I don’t really understand this line. Mac Danzig won The Ultimate Fighter Season 6 at welterweight, and has since dropped to lightweight. Guida has had a decent MMA career, but 3-3 in the UFC isn’t the best record in the world. I’ll take the fighter who hasn’t lost in the UFC and is the underdog almost any day of the week.
My Pick: Mac Danzig (+125 AT BetUs)
UFN | Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, September 16th, 2008
Fun Fact: Houston Alexander is an Omaha Underground Hip-Hop Legend
Light Heavyweights:
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Houston
"The Assassin" Alexander (-265 on BodogLife) |
Name (Odds)
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Eric "Red" Schafer (+205 on BodogLife)
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8-3-0 (2-2 in UFC)
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Record
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9-3-2 (1-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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Roufusport
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36 Years Old
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Age
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30 Years Old
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Alexander is a striker. Schafer is a submission fighter. Alexader has lost his last two fights. Schafer has lost two of his last four, including his last two UFC contests. I don’t really like either of these guys. I know Alexander has a lot of striking power, and is rightfully the favorite. But I also know that I’m not going to put money on somebody at -265 if they’ve lost their last two fights.
My Pick: Eric Schafer (+205 on BodogLife)
UFN | Jason Brilz vs. Brad Morris | Gambling Pick
Tuesday, September 16th, 2008Tomorrow night at Ultimate Fight Night Diaz vs. Neer, Jason Brilz will fight Brad Morris as part of the undercard.
Light Heavyweights:
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Jason Brilz (-275 at BodogLife)
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Name (Odds)
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Brad Morris (+215 at BodogLife)
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15-1-1 (0-0 in UFC)
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Record
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9-3-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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Australia
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Team
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33 Years Old
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Age
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30 Years Old
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I see this as an interesting matchup. Jason Brilz is prospect who hasn’t lost in seven years. Brad Morris is a good fighter whose only UFC fight was a loss to undefeated prospect Cain Velasquez. I like Brad Morris in this fight. Let me break down why:
- Morris’s three losses are all by knockout. Brilz doesn’t have a lot of knockout power (Only 4 of his 15 wins are by KO)
- At +215 Morris only needs a 31.8% chance on winning to make this a good bet.
My Pick: Brad Morris (+215 at BodogLife)
UFC 89 | Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leban | Gambling Pick
Monday, September 15th, 2008
UFC 89 will take place October 18th at the National Indoor Arena in Birmingham, England. The headliner of the night will be Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leban.
Middleweights:
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Michael "The Count" Bisping (-210 at BetUs, -200 at BodogLife)
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Name (Odds)
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Chris Leban (+160 at BetUs, +160 at BodogLife)
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16-1-0 (6-1 in UFC)
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Record
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18-4-0 (8-3 in UFC)
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England
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Country
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United States
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Wolfslair Academy
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Team
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Team Quest
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29 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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I was a big fan of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter and Chris Leban was my favorite fighter on the show, but times change. Since his appearance on TUF, Leban has had at best a pedestrian career in the UFC. In fact, if you include the matches that occurred on TUF, his UFC record would only be 8-5. Not too great.
Michael Bisping was the light heavyweight winner on The Ultimate Fighter 3. If you include Bisping’s TUF fights in his record he is actually 9-1 in the UFC. Since then he has dropped to middleweight. This drop should help him in the long run. Bisping’s only loss came to Rashad Evans by split decision. I really, really like Bisping in this fight. At -200 he would only need a 67% of winning to make a bet on him profitable. I think he has at least a 75% chance on winning. Probably even greater. I would make a bet on Bisping a must at these odds. If you plan on betting on the UFC 89 card, do yourself a favor and throw some money on Bisping.
My Pick: Michael Bisping (-200 at BodogLife.com)
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