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UFC 88 Early Thoughts
By Matt D. | August 19, 2008
UFC 88 is just under three weeks away, and lines for five of the fights are available. Unless otherwise stated these lines come from betus.com. When Bodog gets around to putting up their lines I’ll do a comparison post.
Middleweights:
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Martin Kampmann (EVEN)
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Name (Odds)
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Nate Marquardt (-140)
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13-1-0 (4-0 in UFC)
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Record
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26-8-2 (5-2 in UFC)
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Denmark
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Country
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United States
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Xtreme Couture
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Team
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High Altitude
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26 Years Old
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Age
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29 Years Old
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Kampmann made his debut at UFC - Fight Night 6 as a late replacement defeating Crafton Wallace by submission at 2:59 of round one. I give him a lot of credit for that. It’s rare to see a late replacement come in and win, and the fact the Kampmann was able to do so in a dominating fashion gives me a lot of confidence in him. His next fight was against Thales Leites (13-1). Kampmann defeated Leites by unanimous decision. Since that fight Leites has gone 4-0 in the UFC, including a win over Nate Marquardt. Kampmann’s most two recent UFC fights have been victories over Drew McFedries (7-3) and Jorge Rivera (15-7).
I like Nate Marquardt a lot. I think he is an excellent fighter who sometimes makes poor decisions. In his last fight against Thales Leites, he was docked 2 points for penalties, and he still only lost a split decision. Before that he defeated Jeremy Horn by submission at UFC 81. Horn took the fight on late notice, so I don’t place too much importance on that win. He also lost to Anderson Silva at UFC 73. So in the last 13 months Marquardt is 1-2 with his only win coming over a replacement fighter. That doesn’t instill with me a sense of confidence when I think about his chances. Add to that the fact he is the favorite, and I’ll go with Kampmann.
My Pick: Martin Kampmann (EVEN)
Middleweights:
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Dan Henderson (-200)
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Name (Odds)
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Rousimar Palhares (+160)
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22-7-0 (2-2 in UFC)
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Record
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8-1-0 (1-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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Brazil
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Team Quest
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Team
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Brazillian Top Team
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37 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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Dan Henderson is a legend. So what if he hasn’t won a fight in 18 months? I still like him against a relative nobody at -200. My all time favorite Dan Henderson fight was his loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at PRIDE 24 - Cold Fury 3. Henderson was outweighed by around 30 pounds but he still was able to hold his own against the much larger Brazilian, until Minotauro was able to secure an armbar in the third round to win by submission. If you haven’t seen that fight I highly recommend it.
Rousimar Palhares won his UFC debut against Ivan Salaverry (12-7) at UFC 84. Before that all of his fights took place in Brazil. He has fought a couple of fighters I have heard of before. He defeated PRIDE Bushido veteran Daniel Acacio (14-6) by submission in 2007. He also defeated Fabio "I just lost to Matt Lindland at the Affliction PPV" Negao last year.
I see this fight as being a must win for Dan Henderson. If he loses to Rousimar Palhares that will mean three loses in a row for Henderson, and at 37 years old I believe that would be too much of a blow to recover from.
My Pick: Dan Henderson (-200)
Welterweights:
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Karo Parisyan (-280)
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Name (Odds)
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Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+210)
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18-5-0 (7-2 in UFC)
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Record
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10-2 (1-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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Japan
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Team
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Tokyo Yellow Mans
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26 Years Old
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Age
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Yoshiyuki Yoshida hasn’t lost since December of 2005 and has knockout power. Six of his wins have come by KO or TKO. Yoshida also won his UFC debut at UFC 84 against Jon Koppenhaver (5-2).
I’m not going to lie. Karo Parisyan is an excellent fighter, but he lost me a chunk of money in his fight against Thiago Alves in April. So my breakdown of why to bet against him looks like this:
- -280 is too much for a fighter coming off of a loss.
- His technical excellence isn’t worth as much against a good striker
- He hasn’t defeated an excellent fighter in over a year and a half (As much as I hate to say it, Ryo Chonan doesn’t count)
- I hate him
Seems reasonable to me. If you feel that my rage is blinding my judgement in this fight, I won’t blame you if you go against me on this one.
Speaking of Ryo "Piranha" Chonan, I’m glad to see him in the UFC. He definitely isn’t the most talented Japanese ex-PRIDE fighter, but he was always one of my personal favorites. I have a feeling the only reason the UFC brought him over is so that he can hopefully win a match or two and get a title shot against Anderson Silva. Chonan defeated Silva in 2004, but I feel that if they ever had a rematch it would be the most lobsided rematch ever.
My Pick: Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+210)
Light Heavyweights:
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Rich Franklin (-240)
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Name (Odds)
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Matt Hamill (+190)
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23-3-0 (10-2 in UFC)
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Record
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4-1-0 (4-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team Extreme
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Team
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Team Punishment
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33 Years Old
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Age
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31 Years Old
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I didn’t know Matt Hamill was so old. His first professional fight was in 2006. So that would make him 29 at the time of his debut. What did he do before that? His Wikipedia page says he won a Deaflympic wrestling gold medal in 2001, but that still leaves a 5 year gap. He was on The Ultimate Fighter Season 3, but I don’t remember them mentioning what he was up to for the five previous years. Regardless, he’s a badass. Let’s be honest, he’s undefeated. Regardless of what the judges said, he beat Michael Bisping at UFC 75 in England. That decision was absolutely the worst MMA decision I have ever seen outside of Japan.
Rich Franklin is an excellent fighter. He is 10-2 in the UFC with his only two losses both coming against Anderson Silva. All but two of those fights have taken place at the middleweight weight class. This fight at light heavyweight will be Franklin’s first fight at this weight since UFC 44. I don’t like that at all. I don’t think the extra weight is going to help him against a fighter who is naturally bigger than him. Add to that the fact he is a big favorite, and I am easily going to have to choose Hamill.
My Pick: Matt Hamill (+190)
Light Heavyweights:
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Chuck Liddell (-280 Betus, -260 Bodoglife)
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Name (Odds)
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Rashad Evans (+210 Betus, +200 Bodoglife)
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21-5-0 (16-4 in UFC)
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Record
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11-0-1 (6-0-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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The Pit
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Team
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Jackson’t Submission Fighting
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38 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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I’m not 100% sure about this one right now. I’m leaning towards Evans, but my mind isn’t made up yet. I’ll be back closer to the date of the actual fight with my breakdown of this match, as well as breakdowns of the matches not listed here.
So I guess this is to be continued………
Topics: Predictions, UFC, UFC 88 |
August 19th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Actually…
Franklin’s last fight at LHW was about two years after where you have it at. 4/9/2005 against Ken Shamrock. I feel pretty sure that was at LHW and his next fighter after that (against Evan Tanner) was his MW debut.
With the spread between Franklin/Hamill I can understand picking Hamill, but I think it quite likely Franklin will win. He has great TD defense and can really punish guys that try to take him down (I look to the stoppage win over MacDonald from UFC 68). Hamill is one of the bigger LHWs though and a decent wrestler (say what you will about his fight with Bisping, but Hamill had a lot of trouble taking Bisping down and almost no success hurting him when he got there).
re: Evans/Liddell
Liddell had a huge rep as ‘the wrestler killer’ but hasn’t been dropping guys like he used to. His sprawl and brawl style is formulated to destroy wrestlers. Some guys decide they should train striking and surprise him by not going for the TD. Those guys get KO’d quickly (looking at you Babalu).
This one is a scary bet IMO.
August 19th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Good catch on the Franklin thing. I completely forgot about the Shamrock fight, but to be fair Shamrock was well past his prime when that fight took place.
But my pick of Hamill comes own to the odds. Hamill would only need about a 34% chance of winning to make the bet worth it, and I think he’s at least that good.
August 19th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Again, that kind of analysis is why I enjoy this site. It isn’t about figuring out who will win, but given the lines who should be bet on. It’s a very different way of looking at the fight than I do.
Of course if there is a fight where I think they have the ‘favorite’ wrong, that I’m used to spotting, or if everyone is counting a guy out that I think has a fair chance, I bring that up. (I thought Tim would do better than he did against Fedor, I didn’t give Jardine a chance against Chuck, but I never counted Forrest out against Rua or Rampage).
August 27th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Excellent analysis on the betting side of the sport. You have gained a new regular reader.
August 27th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Thanks Jason! That cageplay.com site seems pretty cool. I’ll be sure to sign up before next month’s events.