« UFC Fight Night 13 Picks Part 2 | Home | International Fight League (IFL) April 4, 2008 Picks »
Week 4 Mid Week Pick Recap
By Matt D. | April 1, 2008
Here is a rundown of my hypothetical picks for Wednesday:
UFC Fight Night 13 (Broomfield Event Center, Colorado , 4:45 PM ET Wednesday, April 2nd)
| Frank Edgar (-175) | $100 to win $57.14 |
| Din Thomas (-160) | $100 to win $62.50 |
| Ryan Roberts (+500) | $100 to win $500 |
| Samy Schiavo (+400) | $100 to win $400 |
| Roman Mitichyan (+135) | $100 to win $135 |
| Anthony Johnson (+235) | $100 to win $235 |
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | $100 to win $12.50 |
| Tim Boetsch (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
| Kurt Pellegrino (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
| James Irvin (+215) | $100 to win $215 |
| Joe Lauzon (+180) | $100 to win $180 |
| Karo Parisyan (-180) | $100 to win $55.54 |
The odds of a lot of these fights have moved. Here is a breakdown of where they are currently:
- Frank Edgar moved from -175 to -200. Good for me, but if I had to choose again at those odds I wouldn’t like that one bit. I don’t think I could recommend Edgar at -200. I’d wait and see if there was any movement before tomorrow night.
- Din Thomas moved from -160 to -180. I’m glad I took him at -160, but he is still a good bet at -180
- Roman Mitichyan moved from +135 to +150. Oops.
- Anthony Johnson moved from +235 to +205. Those odds are still good enough for me to take him.
- Tim Boetsch moved from +160 to +145. This is another move I don’t like. If I had to choose I would still take Boetsch at +145.
- Kurt Pellegrino moved from +160 to +130. With those odds I’d most likely take Diaz at -160
- James Irvin moved from +215 to +190. I still like him at those odds.
- Joe Lauzon moved from +180 to +160. I still like him as you will see below.
That’s a ton of movement, and it all seems to benefit me except for the Mitichyan fight. I don’t like it one bit. They say the majority of gamblers are losers, and having the majority agreeing with me doesn’t sit too well.
Lock of the Week (This is an extra bet)
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | $100 to win $12.50 |
The only chance Jeff Cox has is if Gamburyan injures himself again.
Value Bet of the Week (This is an extra bet)
| Joe Lauzon (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
These aren’t the biggest odds, but I still think this is the most lopsided line (other than maybe the Samy Schiavo fight, but I don’t have the balls to recommend another bet on him).
To recap, I recommend 12 bets for tomorrow plus the 2 bonus bets. On the year I am up a hypothetical $150.53.
Topics: Mid Week Updates, Pick Recaps, UFC |