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Archive for April, 2008
UFC 83 Undercard: Joe Doerksen vs. Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald
Wednesday, April 16th, 2008Middleweights:
|
Jason MacDonald
|
Name (Odds)
|
Joe Doerksen
|
|
19-9-0 (3-2 in UFC)
|
Record
|
39-11-0 (1-4 in UFC)
|
|
Canada
|
Country
|
Canada
|
|
Pro Camp
|
Team
|
|
|
32 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
Jason MacDonald has had a pretty good run in the UFC. His only 2 UFC losses came at the hands of Rich Franklin (#3 middleweight in the world) and Yushin Okami (#8 middleweight in the world). Joe Doerksen is a veteran of pretty much every MMA organization you can think of (UFC, IFL, WEC, DEEP, KOTC, Rings). He even signed a contract to fight for PRIDE before the UFC took PRIDE over. The line for this fight isn’t out yet, but I wouldn’t take Doerksen at anything less than +600. This is because MacDonald and Doerksen fought in 2005, and MacDonald was able to submist Doerksen with a rear naked choke. Add that to his terrible UFC record and Doerksen has to be one of the biggest underdogs of the night.
MMA Links of the Week
Saturday, April 12th, 2008No fights to bet on this weekend, so I’m going to start a new feature: Links of the Week. These are not advertisers, these are just sites and articles that I enjoy and want to share.
mmascraps.com – Ultimate MMA Videos. And excellent blog where you can literally find hundreds of hours of MMA fights and documentaries. My current personal favorite videos on the site are the documentary following Cro Cop leading up to his fight against Fedor Emelianenko, and the Decade of PRIDE video. If you’re a big fan of MMA this is a good site to visit fairly often, because they sometimes link to videos that are removed quickly if you know what I mean.
Cage Potato – I read lots of MMA blogs, but I think cagepotato.com is by far the most entertaining. The authors on the site post constantly (over 50 posts in the last week), and they are the funniest MMA blog around.
Sherdog, MMA Weekly – I use both of these sites as my primary source for breaking MMA news. They both do a good job with exclusive reporting, but for the love of your sanity stay away from the Sherdog forums. I honestly don’t think there is a bigger collection of idiots to be found anywhere in the world.
Petition to Stop YAMMA – I know this goes against my warning to stay away from the Sherdog forums, but check this post out. The poster Sharkk from Illinois (why do you have to sully my state’s good name?) started a petition to try and get the New Jersey Athletic Control Board to stop sactioning YAMMA events. I’ve read his post a few times looking for any sign that this is a joke, and I must say that I am pretty sure Sharkk is being completly serious. I’m not sure how individual state athletic commissions work, but I’m pretty sure a petition started by a (wo?)man who calls him/herself Sharkk is not going to have much influence.
Quick Matt Serra Quote – I don’t like mmamania.com. Most of their posters seem pretentious, and their actual articles sound like they wouldn’t be out of place on the Sherdog forums. But I had to include this link. This is by far the funniest healine I have ever read on the site.
Top 10 Dream Matches – I have to admit that I just found this site, but I almost completely agree with this list of 10 fights that need to happen. The article is from November so I’d tweak the list somewhat to account for what has happened over the last few months, but other than that this guy is right on.
YAMMA Pit Fighting (YPF 1) Fight Videos
Saturday, April 12th, 2008YAMMA Pitfighting Videos
Butterbean vs. Patrick Smith
Mark Kerr vs. Oleg Taktarov
Travis Wiuff post tournament interview:
I really like that Wiuff interview. It makes him seem like a real down-to-earth guy. I hope he is able to turn his YAMMA tournament victory into bigger and better things.
Quick YAMMA Pit Fighting (YPF 1) Results
Friday, April 11th, 2008Oleg Taktarov won his fight against Mark Kerr in 1:55 by submission. Kerr is washed up, and Taktarov looked to be in excellent shape.
Butterbean’s old morbidly overweight ass quit because of the strikes he was taking at the 3:17 mark of round one to give Patrick Smith the victory.
Travis Wiuff defeated Chris Tuscherer in the finals of the eight man tournament to win the inagural YAMMA event.
This event proves that occasionally I can pick fights correctly. I picked the Taktarov and Smith wins. Additionally, Wiuff was one of the two fighters I liked to win the 8 man tournament. I wouldn’t say YAMMA 1 was a great event, but I think it was worth the $35 pay-per-view pricetag.
The YAMMA Ring Revealed
Friday, April 11th, 2008
I have to say I’m a little disappointed. I was hoping it was going to be more like an actual pit.
YAMMA Pit Fighting Predictions
Friday, April 11th, 2008YAMMA Pit Fighting has their inaugural event tonight. Here are my quick predictions
Oleg Taktarov vs. Mark Kerr
Oleg “The Russian Bear” Taktarov has had one fight in the last decade, but he won that fight. Mark Kerr is an ex UFC champion and PRIDE veteran who has lost five of his last seven fights. I know Kerr has had a great career, but all I can think of when I hear his name is this fight (fast forward to 45 seconds if you’re really impatient):
Sherdog lists that loss as a TKO by strikes. I guess you can call it that.
My prediction: Oleg Taktarov by submission
Patrick Smith vs. Eric “ Butterbean” Esch
Patrick Smith is 45 years old and the peak of his career came when he lost in the finals of UFC 2 to Royce Gracie. One of Smith’s losses came from a DQ caused by fan interference. I had to find that fight, and here it is. But it’s no where close to as entertaining as I thought it would be:
Butterbean is a Tough Man competition champion who weighed in at 416 pounds. Wikipedia lists him as 379 pounds, so I guess that means he is almost 40 pounds over his “ideal” weight.
My prediction: Smith by submission.
Eight man tournament prediction:
I like Marcelo Pereira as a good dark horse pick. He’s the lightest fighter in the tournament at 219 pounds. My second favorite fighter would be Travis Wiuff. His experience (49-11-0), and relative youth (he is only 30 years old) give him a good chance.
YAMMA Pit Fighting Q & A
Thursday, April 10th, 2008What is YAMMA Pit Fighting?
YAMMA is a new MMA organization that is trying to take MMA back it’s roots by hosting an 8 man one night elimination tournament. YAMMA makes their debut on pay-per-view live this Friday night.
Why do they call themselves “Pit Fighting”?
Supposedly it has to do with the new type to ring they are going to debut. According to reports the ring is going to be circular with angled walls to force competitors at the edge of the pit back in. Here is how the organization describes it in a press release:
The YPF surface, known as “The Yamma,” is an evolution of the traditional fighting structure and is designed to keep the fighting more explosive and continuous. In today’s MMA matches, fighters rush their opponents in the quest for a takedown, and the fight often ends up on the ground and pushed up against the fence. The action often stalls there, and must be stopped and moved back into the center of the ring. The Yamma’s design is specifically aimed at stopping this break in the action. The Yamma is a circular pit, shaped almost like a bowl, with a circular flat bottom that rises up around the edge. In this ring, if a fighter is pushed backwards towards the fence, he moves up the lip, gaining both a height and leverage advantage over his opponent. From this position, the fighter on the lip can use gravity and leverage to reverse his opponent, and take the fight back into the center without a break in the action.
Who is in the 8 man tournament? Anybody I should know?
Marcelo “Pato” Pereira, Sherman Pendergarst, Ricco “Suave” Rodriguez, Tony Sylvester, Chris Tuscherer, Travis “The Diesel” Wiuff, Alexey Oleynik, and George “Not The President” Bush are the eight fighters in the tournament. Ron “H20” Waterman is the alternate for the tournament. Who should an average MMA fan know? Ricco Rodriguez for one. Ricco is an ex-UFC bad ass who decided to develop a drug problem and has appeared on VH-1’s celebrity fit club. I don’t recognize him, but Travis Wiuff has a record 49-11 so fans may recognize him from somewhere. He has fought once in PRIDE (a loss to James Lee), and once in the UFC (a loss to Renato “Babalu” Sobral in 2005). The alternate Ron Waterman is a UFC and PRIDE veteran.
How much is the pay-per-view? Is it worth getting?
The pay-per-view is $35. I would say it might be worth it. The 8 man tournament is going to consist of 7 matches, plus there are going to be two “superfights”: Oleg Taktarov vs. Mark Kerr and Butterbean vs. Pat Smith. The only reason I say it might be worth it is because I really think the ring might add a new twist to the traditional art of MMA.
Bow Tie Betting – Week 4 Results
Tuesday, April 8th, 2008| Fighter | Fighter | Hypothetical Bet Size | Event | Winner | Running Total |
| Anthony Johnson (+235) | Tommy Speer (-295) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Anthony Johnson by KO | +$235 |
| George Sotiropoulos (-165) | Roman Mitichyan (+135) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Sotiropoulos wins by TKO | +$135 |
| Clay Guida (-600) | Samy Schiavo (+400) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Guida wins by TKO | +$35 |
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | Jeff Cox (+500) | $200 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Gamburyan wins by submission | +$60 |
| Marcus Aurelio (-800) | Ryan Roberts (+500) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Aurelio wins by submission | -$40 |
| Din Thomas (-160) | Josh "The Dentist" Neer (+130) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Neer wins by unanimous decision | -$140 |
| Houston Alexander (-275) | James Irvin (+215) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Irvin wins by TKO | +$75 |
| Nate Diaz (-200) | Kurt Pellegrino (+160) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Diaz wins by submission | -$25 |
| Matt Hamill (-200) | Tim Boetsch (+160) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Hamill by TKO | -$125 |
| Karo Parisyan (-180) | Thiago Alves (+150) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Alves by TKO | -$225 |
| Gray Maynard (+145) | Frank Edgar (-175) | $100 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Edgar by decision | -$325 |
| Kenny Florian (-220) | Joe Lauzon (+180) | $200 | UFC Fight Night 13 | Florian by TKO | -$525 |
| Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko (-500) | Jamal "The Suit" Patterson (+300) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Matyushenko by TKO | -$515 |
| Wagnney Fabiano (-650) | Shad Lierley (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Fabiano by KO | -$507.31 |
| Jay Hieron (-330) | Mark Miller (+260) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Hieron by TKO | -$557.31 |
| Carmelo Marrero (-155) | Mike Ciesnolevicz (+125) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | NO CONTEST (CUT) | -$557.31 |
| Bart Palaszewski (-200) | Jim Miller (+160) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Miller by unanimous decision | -$477.31 |
| Delson Heleno (-260) | Brad Blackburn (+200) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Blackburn by KO | -$527.31 |
| Alex Schoenauer (-650) | Brendan Barrett (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Schoenauer by split decision | -$577.31 |
| Chris Horodecki (-650) | Nate Lamotte (+450) | $50 | IFL April 4, 2008 | Horodecki by unanimous decision | -$569.62 |
Week 4 was a terrible week. I made two big mistakes I ended up paying for. First off, betting against Matt Hamill was a mistake. I let my personal dislike for the man influence my judgement. That’s never a good thing. Secondly, betting on Karo Parisyan was a big mistake. I should have just gone with the underdog.
I guess I can take solace in the fact the a lot of bettors went down with me. The way the lines moved during the week showed all of the action going towards my fighters.
International Fight League (IFL) April 4, 2008 Picks
Friday, April 4th, 2008Light Heavyweights:
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Carmelo Marrero (-155)
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Name (Odds)
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Mike Ciesnolevicz (+125)
|
|
7-2-0
|
Record
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13-3
|
|
United States
|
Country
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United States
|
|
American Top Team
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Team
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Miletich Martial Arts
|
|
27 Years Old
|
Age
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28 Years Old
|
Carmelo Marrero is a veteran of the UFC where he earned a victory against Cheick Kongo (11-4-1) at UFC 64. He would go on to lose his next two UFC bouts. This is his first fight in the IFL
Mike Ciesnolevicz is an IFL veteran, but not an extremely successful one. His record in the IFL stands at only 5-3. I’ll take the UFC veteran in this one.
My Pick: Carmelo Marrero ($50 to win $32.25)
Lightweights:
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Bart Palaszewski (-200)
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Name (Odds)
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Jim Miller (+160)
|
|
28-10-0
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Record
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10-1-0
|
|
Poland
|
Country
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United States
|
|
Team Curran
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Team
|
|
|
24 Years Old
|
Age
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24 Years Old
|
Bart "Bartimus" Palaszewski is an IFL veteran with an overall IFL record of 8-3. One problem I have with Palaszewski is that he has lost 2 fights in a row. Additionally his IFL record may not quite be as impressive as it sounds. Four of his IFL wins have come by way of split decision.
Jim Miller fought his first professional fight in November of 2005. Since then he has compiled the impressive record of 10-1. His only loss came against Frank Edgar (8-0) by decision. Bartimus is no Frank Edgar. I think Miller has a good chance to take this one by submission.
My Pick: Jim Miller ($50 to win $80)
Welterweights:
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Delson Heleno (-260)
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Name (Odds)
|
Brad Blackburn (+200)
|
|
13-4-0
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Record
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11-9-1
|
|
Brazil
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Country
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United States
|
|
Gracie Fusion
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Team
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ATT West
|
|
30 Years Old
|
Age
|
30 Years Old
|
Delson Heleno is an IFL veteran with a record of 6-3 in the IFL. Two of his losses arose from unusual circumstances. In April of 2006 he was disqualified because of an illegal upkick, and in December of 2007 he was forced to quit because of a leg injury.
Brad Blackburn isn’t a great fighter. He has lost 6 of his last 9 fights. I think Delson Heleno should destroy him, unless he does something stupid and gets disqualified or gets hurt. -260 seems very generous to me.
My Pick: Delson Heleno ($50 to win $19.23)
IFL Light Heavyweight Championship:
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Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko (-500)
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Name (Odds)
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Jamal "The Suit" Patterson (+300)
|
|
20-3-0
|
Record
|
4-1-0
|
|
Belarus
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
RAW Team
|
Team
|
|
|
37 Years Old
|
Age
|
34 Years Old
|
Vladimir Matyushenko has lost 3 times in his career. Once to Andrei Arlovski, once to Tito Ortiz, and once to Vernon White. Will Jamal Patterson become the fourth legend* to defeat The Janitor? I can say with confidence, no he will not.
My Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko ($50 to win $10)
* = maybe I’m stretching a little calling Vernon "Tiger" White a legend
IFL Welterweight Chamionship:
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Jay Hieron (-330)
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Name (Odds)
|
Mark Miller (+260)
|
|
14-4-0
|
Record
|
8-2-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Xtreme Couture
|
Team
|
Hellhouse
|
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
27 Years Old
|
Mark Miller has defeated a fighter better than Jay Hieron (Josh Neer 23-6-1), Jay Hieron has lost to a fighter worse than Mark Miller (Brad Blackburn 11-9-1). By that logic, Mark Miller has a chance to defeat Jay Hieron.
My Pick: Mark Miller ($50 to win $130)
IFL Lightweight Championship:
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Wagnney Fabiano (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Shad Lierley (+450)
|
|
9-1-0
|
Record
|
2-1-0
|
|
Brazil
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Nova Uniao
|
Team
|
|
|
32 Years Old
|
Age
|
27 Years Old
|
This is an odd match up. Wagnney Fabiano is a great Brazilian submission artist, and Shad Lierley is a newcomer to MMA. Fabriano trained in Brazil under Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira. Lierley is an ex Division III collegiate wrestler. I don’t know what Lierley did to deserve this bout, but I think Fabiano is going to be able to submit him. Fabiano is 5-0 in the IFL with all of his wins coming by submissions. Newcomers to the sport of MMA always have a hard time stopping submissions when facing submission experts.
My Pick: Wagnney Fabiano ($50 to win $7.69)
Lightweights:
|
Chris Horodecki (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Nate Lamotte (+450)
|
|
11-1-0
|
Record
|
6-2-0
|
|
Canada
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team Tompkins
|
Team
|
|
|
20 Years Old
|
Age
|
Chris Horodecki was supposed to be the golden boy of the IFL. He was 11-0 when Ryan Schultz knocked him out in November of last year. So to rebuild Horodecki’s confidence the IFL found some guy off the street for him to pound. Nate Lamotte has been fighting in regional New England promotions for two years. He has only defeated one fighter with a winning record (Mark Raposa 4-3). I hate to say it, but I don’t see why this line is only -650. I guess it is because Horodecki is coming off the first loss of his career, and when that happens there is always a chance that a fighter will suffer a case of Roy Jones fever.
My Pick: Chris Horodecki ($50 to win $7.69)
Light Heavyweights:
|
Alex Schoenauer (-650)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Brendan Barrett (+450)
|
|
12-9-0
|
Record
|
3-2
|
|
Argentina
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Xtreme Couture
|
Team
|
|
|
31 Years Old
|
Age
|
26 Years Old
|
I like this line. Alex Schoenauer has lost two in a row, four out of six, and has an IFL record of 4-5. Bredan Barrett has only fought in smaller promotions, but I really don’t care. Schoenauer has done nothing to earn his -650 line. Schoenauer will probably win the fight, but at +450 Barrett only needs a 19% chance of winning to make picking him a profitable bet. I think he is at least that good.
My Pick: Brendan Barrett ($50 to win $225)
Week 4 Mid Week Pick Recap
Tuesday, April 1st, 2008Here is a rundown of my hypothetical picks for Wednesday:
UFC Fight Night 13 (Broomfield Event Center, Colorado , 4:45 PM ET Wednesday, April 2nd)
| Frank Edgar (-175) | $100 to win $57.14 |
| Din Thomas (-160) | $100 to win $62.50 |
| Ryan Roberts (+500) | $100 to win $500 |
| Samy Schiavo (+400) | $100 to win $400 |
| Roman Mitichyan (+135) | $100 to win $135 |
| Anthony Johnson (+235) | $100 to win $235 |
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | $100 to win $12.50 |
| Tim Boetsch (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
| Kurt Pellegrino (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
| James Irvin (+215) | $100 to win $215 |
| Joe Lauzon (+180) | $100 to win $180 |
| Karo Parisyan (-180) | $100 to win $55.54 |
The odds of a lot of these fights have moved. Here is a breakdown of where they are currently:
- Frank Edgar moved from -175 to -200. Good for me, but if I had to choose again at those odds I wouldn’t like that one bit. I don’t think I could recommend Edgar at -200. I’d wait and see if there was any movement before tomorrow night.
- Din Thomas moved from -160 to -180. I’m glad I took him at -160, but he is still a good bet at -180
- Roman Mitichyan moved from +135 to +150. Oops.
- Anthony Johnson moved from +235 to +205. Those odds are still good enough for me to take him.
- Tim Boetsch moved from +160 to +145. This is another move I don’t like. If I had to choose I would still take Boetsch at +145.
- Kurt Pellegrino moved from +160 to +130. With those odds I’d most likely take Diaz at -160
- James Irvin moved from +215 to +190. I still like him at those odds.
- Joe Lauzon moved from +180 to +160. I still like him as you will see below.
That’s a ton of movement, and it all seems to benefit me except for the Mitichyan fight. I don’t like it one bit. They say the majority of gamblers are losers, and having the majority agreeing with me doesn’t sit too well.
Lock of the Week (This is an extra bet)
| Manny Gamburyan (-800) | $100 to win $12.50 |
The only chance Jeff Cox has is if Gamburyan injures himself again.
Value Bet of the Week (This is an extra bet)
| Joe Lauzon (+160) | $100 to win $160 |
These aren’t the biggest odds, but I still think this is the most lopsided line (other than maybe the Samy Schiavo fight, but I don’t have the balls to recommend another bet on him).
To recap, I recommend 12 bets for tomorrow plus the 2 bonus bets. On the year I am up a hypothetical $150.53.