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The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks WEC 33
By Matt D. | March 26, 2008
There are some WEC fights tonight! Bodog just put the lines up yesterday evening, so here are my quick picks for tonight. These lines come from Bodoglife.com at about 11 AM Central Time.
Middleweights:
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Hiromitsu Miura (-170)
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Name (Odds)
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Blas Avena (+140)
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8-4-0
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Record
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2-1-0
|
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Japan
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Country
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United States
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SAMURAI SWORD
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Team
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|
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26 Years Old
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Age
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24 Years Old
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This is Hiromitsu Miura’s third fight for WEC. Before that he fought mostly in Japan (HERO’s, DEEP, Pancrase, etc.). He is 1-1 in WEC fights, but had a much better record in Japan. My largest problem with him is that he has never faced an excellent opponent. The best fighter he has ever fought (and lost to) was Jason Miller. Miller is a fighter probably most famous for going the distance against Georges St. Pierre at UFC 52.
After losing his WEC debut in January of last year, Blas Avena has won his last two fights. He might not have the experience that Miura has, but I like him in this fight. The one thing I fear the most when betting on inexperienced fighters is that they will get caught in some kind of submission. I don’t have that anxiety here, because Miura has only won one fight by submission.
My Pick: Blas Avena ($50 to win $70)
Welterweights:
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Brock Larson (-300)
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Name (Odds)
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John Alessio (+240)
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22-2-0
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Record
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22-10-0
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Minnesota Martial Arts Academy
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Team
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Xtreme Couture
|
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30 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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Brock Larson is good. One of his two losses was to current WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit. The other was to UFC veteren Jon Fitch (17-2). He has a couple of good victories, including a win over Keita Nakamura (14-3-2) at UFC - Fight Night 7 that was the first loss of Nakamura’s career.
For being so young, John Alessio has been fighting for a long time. Alessio’s first career MMA match was in 1998 when he was only 19 years old! He lost to Pat Miletich (28-7-2), founder of Miletich Martial Arts, in 2000 at UFC 26. Since then Alessio has fought in UFC, KOTC, PRIDE, WED, and other smaller promotions. I think that his experience will give him a chance in this fight. At +240 I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Alessio is a steal, but he’s my pick.
Fun Fact (Taken from wikipedia): John Alessio is also a BMX trick biker. He won the national trick biking championship 2 years in a row.
My Pick: John Alessio ($50 to win $120)
Lightweights:
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Richard Crunkilton Jr (-240)
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Name (Odds)
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Sergio Gomez (+190)
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|
15-2-0
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Record
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7-1-0
|
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United States
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Country
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United States
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American Kickboxing Academy
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Team
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|
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28 Years Old
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Age
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25 Years Old
|
Sergio Gomez is 7-1. His only loss was to the undefeated fighter Marcus Hicks (7-0).
Crunkilton has 2 losses. Rob McCullough (15-4) and Hermes Franca (18-6) have both defeated him.
I’ll take the underdog
My Pick: Sergio Gomez ($50 to win $95)
Bantamweights:
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Kenji Osawa (-120)
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Name (Odds)
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Chris Manuel (+110)
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|
13-7-1
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Record
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6-0-1
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Japan
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Country
|
|
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Wajyutsu Keisyukai A3
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Team
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American Top Team
|
|
31 Years Old
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Age
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I rarely am going to go against an undefeated fighter. Especially if the undefeated fighter is an underdog.
My Pick: Chris Manuel ($50 to win $55)
Middleweights:
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Logan Clark (-325)
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Name (Odds)
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Scott Harper (+250)
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|
9-1-0
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Record
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8-3-0
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Minnesota Martial Arts Academy
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Team
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|
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23 Years Old
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Age
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35 Years Old
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Logan "The Pink Pounder" Clark is 9-1 with a terrible nickname. His only loss is to Eric Schambari (7-1).
Normally I am all about the underdog, but Scott Harper seems like a guy that they just found on the street. He is a 35 year old police captain with three kids. He has experience in events such as Wild Bill’s Fight Night. His profile on WEC’s website claims, "I have a full time job as a Captain with the Coffee County Sheriff’s Office. I am married with three kids and I run my own mixed martial arts school in Douglas, GA. This makes finding time to train very hard." (Emphasis mine) His wins are against nobodies. His losses are mostly against nobodies. I see him getting killed.
My Pick: Logan Clark ($50 to win $15.38)
Light Heavyweights:
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Brian "All American" Stann (-180)
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Name (Odds)
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Doug "Rhino" Marshall (+150)
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5-0-0
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Record
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7-2-0
|
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United States
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Country
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United States
|
|
Xtreme Couture
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Team
|
|
|
27 Years Old
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Age
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31 Years Old
|
Now these are some quality nicknames. How can you beat "All American?"
Brian Stann is 5-0 with 5 TKOs. How do you bet against that?
My Pick: Brian Stann ($50 to win $27.77)
Middleweights:
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Chael Sonnen (-490)
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Name (Odds)
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Bryan Baker (+290)
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19-9-1
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Record
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6-0-0
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United States
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Country
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United States
|
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Team Quest
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Team
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Team Wildman Vale Tudo
|
|
30 Years Old
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Age
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22 Years Old
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This line makes no sense to me. It’s not like Baker has been fighting scrubs. Baker is 2-0 in the WEC with wins over Eric Schambari (7-1) and Jesse Forbes (6-2). Just place your bet quietly and walk away.
I see now…. Baker is a late replacement. This fight was announced yesterday. But +290 is +290.
My Pick: Bryan Baker ($50 to win $145)
Lightweights:
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Marcus Hicks (-130)
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Name (Odds)
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Ed Ratcliff (EVEN)
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7-0-0
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Record
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6-0-0
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Colony Boxing
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Team
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North County Fight Club
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32 Years Old
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Age
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25 Years Old
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This is a tough fight for me to pick. Both fighters are 2-0 in WEC fights. Both come from smaller organizations. Both have faced similar opponents. Neither has ever had a fight go the distance. I think the line is fair. The extra win Hicks has is probably worth about 30 points. I don’t really have an opinion, so I’ll take Ratcliff with the extra odds.
This looks like it could be the best fight of the evening.
My Pick: Ed Ratcliff ($50 to win $50)
Light Heavyweights
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Tim McKenzie (-140)
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Name (Odds)
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Steve Cantwell (+115)
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11-4-0
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Record
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4-1-0
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United States
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Country
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United States
|
|
Team
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||
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Age
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21 Years Old
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Cantwell’s only loss is to "All American" Brian Stann. I like his youth and stopping power (none of his fights have gone the distance).
My Pick: Steve Cantwell ($50 to win $57.50)