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Archive for March, 2008
« Previous EntriesUFC Fight Night 13 Picks Part 2
Monday, March 31st, 2008Bodoglife.com put the lines up for the rest of the Ultimate Fighting Championship Fight Night card. Here are my picks…
Lightweights:
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Frank Edgar (-175)
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Name (Odds)
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Gray Maynard (+145)
|
|
8-0-0 (3-0 in UFC)
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Record
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4-0-0 (2-0 in UFC)
|
|
United States
|
Country
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United States
|
|
Team
|
Xtreme Couture
|
|
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26 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
|
Both of these fighters are undefeated, but Frank Edgar has definitely beat better opponents. Edgar’s three UFC victories were against Spencer Fisher (20-4), Mark Bocek (5-1), and Tyson Griffin (11-1). Maynard’s 2 UFC victories come against Joe Veras (4-3) and Dennis Silver (11-5). Both of these fighters have amateur wrestling backgrounds so they should have similar styles.
I like Edgar, because -175 seems like excellent odds for a fighter who has accomplished what he has.
My Pick: Frank Edgar ($100 to win $57.14)
Lightweights:
|
Din Thomas (-160)
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Name (Odds)
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Josh "The Dentist" Neer (+130)
|
|
20-7-0 (5-2 in UFC)
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Record
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23-6-1 (2-3 in UFC)
|
|
United States
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Country
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United States
|
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American Top Team
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Team
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Miletich Martial Arts
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31 Years Old
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Age
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24 Years Old
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I think Din Thomas is going to be able to dominate this fight. Josh Neer is returning to the UFC after spending the last 18 months fighting in smaller promotions. I think the time away will help him, but he has never been successful in the UFC. I don’t think that he is going to be successful here. On the plus side, he does have a cool nickname.
One thing that has me slightly worried about Din is the fact that this is his first fight since he tore his meniscus in a fight against Kenny Florian. That was in September of last year, so hopefully he has had time to fully recover.
My Pick: Din Thomas ($100 to win $62.50)
Lightweights:
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Marcus Aurelio (-800)
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Name (Odds)
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Ryan Roberts (+500)
|
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15-5-0 (1-1 in UFC)
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Record
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8-2-0
|
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Brazil
|
Country
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United States
|
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American Top Team
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Team
|
|
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34 Years Old
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Age
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29 Years Old
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Marcus Aurelio has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. Aurelio is not a ranked lightweight. He has faced tougher opponents than Ryan Roberts has, but -800 seems like too much. I can’t bet on a fighter who has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. His only win over that period came against Luke Caudillo (14-9)
Let’s find some reasons why Ryan Roberts is going to win this fight:
- He has won 2 in a row and 5 out of 6.
- He has knockout power. 3 of his last 4 wins were by TKO
- He’s the younger fighter. Maybe Aurelio will blow his knee out, because he’s an old man.
- His link on the Wikipedia Fight Night 13 page goes to the baseball player Ryan Roberts. Maybe Aurelio has been watching Texas Rangers film to prepare. That could really throw him off.
My Pick: Ryan Roberts ($100 to win $500)
Lightweights:
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Clay Guida (-600)
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Name (Odds)
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Samy Schiavo (+400)
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22-9-0 (2-3 in UFC)
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Record
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10-4-0
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United States
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Country
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France
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Hellhouse
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Team
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French Top Team
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26 Years Old
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Age
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32 Years Old
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I’m not going to lie. I didn’t even know there was a French Top Team, and now it looks like I’m going to bet on one of their fighters. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida is a good fighter, but I don’t see where the -600 comes from. Clay has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. That’s not good. Since the beginning of 2006 Clay’s record is 4-6.
Samy "I’m French" Schiavo has never fought in the United States before. He has won his last six fights, three by submission and three by (T)KO. That’s what I like to see. Hopefully his first trip to America is a successful one.
My Pick: Samy Schiavo ($100 to win $400)
Welterweights:
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George Sotiropoulos (-165)
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Name (Odds)
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Roman Mitichyan (+135)
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8-2-0 (1-0 in UFC)
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Record
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5-1-0 (1-0 in UFC)
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Australia
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Country
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Armenia
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PUREBRED Omiya / Serra Jiu-Jitsu
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Team
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|
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30 Years Old
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Age
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29 Years Old
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Sotiropoulos and Mitichyan are both veterans of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra. Sotiropoulos was defeated in the semi-finals by Tommy Speer, and Roman Mitichyan broke his elbow before the teams were even selected.
I’m going to take Mitichyan in this fight. In his UFC debut he defeated Dorian Price in 23 seconds by submission. Four of his five wins come by way of submission. Hopefully he will be able to use his superior submission skills to take Sotiropoulos out.
My Pick: Roman Mitichyan ($100 to win $135)
Welterweights:
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Tommy Speer (-295)
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Name (Odds)
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Anthony Johnson (+235)
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9-2-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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Record
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4-1 (1-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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|
Team
|
||
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23 Years Old
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Age
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23 Years Old
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Tommy Speer made it to the finals of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra, but he lost in the finals to Mac Danzig at the 2:01 mark by submission. Before that Tommy Speer had never faced any great opponents.
Anthony Johnson also has never faced any great opponents, but he did knock out Chad "The Grinder" Reiner (17-3) at UFC Fight Night 10 in 13 seconds. That tells me he has the power to upset Tommy Speer
My Pick: Anthony Johnson ($100 to win $235)
Lightweights:
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Manny Gamburyan (-800)
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Name (Odds)
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Jeff Cox (+500)
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7-2-0 (1-1 in UFC)
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Record
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9-4-0 (0-1 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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Strong Style Fight Team
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|
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26 Years Old
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Age
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39 Years Old
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Jeff Cox is a 39 year old police officer. Manvel Gamburyan is a 26 year old lightweight who should have won The Ultimate Fighter 5, but he dislocated his shoulder during the fight. Gamburyan will win this fight unless his shoulder pops out again. At +500 there needs to be a 16.7% chance of his shoulder dislocating to make a bet on Cox correct. I don’t think the odds are that good.
My Pick: Manny Gamburyan ($100 to win $12.50)
Light Heavyweights:
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Matt Hamill (-200)
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Name (Odds)
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Tim Boetsch (+160)
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3-1-0 (3-1 in UFC)
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Record
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7-1-0 (1-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team Punishment
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Team
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|
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31 Years Old
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Age
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26 Years Old
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Matt "The Deaf Guy From The Ultimate Fighter" Hamill vs. Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch. Both fighters are ex-amateur wrestlers who like to strike. Both have had similar careers, beating bad opponents are losing to great ones. I like Boetsch in this fight simply because of the odds. If a KO comes it really could go either way.
My Pick: Tim Boetsch ($100 to win $160)
Lightweights:
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Nate Diaz (-200)
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Name (Odds)
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Kurt Pellegrino (+160)
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8-2-0 (3-0 in UFC)
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Record
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11-3-0 (3-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
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Team
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The Armory
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22 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
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These fighters have similar styles. Both are submission experts who occasionally score a win by knockout. I like Diaz and think that he deserves to be the favorite, but I’m not going to take him. Pellegrino has only lost to great fighters in the UFC (Joe Stevenson and Drew Fickett). Diaz in undefeated in the UFC, but I see his youth as a possible weakness. Along with the extra endurance that being so young brings, comes some extra stupidity. I think that gives Pellegrino a good chance to catch Diaz in this fight.
My Pick: Kurt Pellegrino ($100 to win $160)
Light Heavyweights:
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Houston Alexander (-275)
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Name (Odds)
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James Irvin (+215)
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8-2-0 (2-1 in UFC)
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Record
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13-4-0 (3-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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||
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36 Years Old
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Age
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29 Years Old
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I like Irvin in this fight. His UFC record is better than it seems. One of his losses came becase of a knee injury. Irvin is also an ex WEC heavyweight champion. Both of these guys are knockout artists (Alexander has 5 KO’s, Irvin has 9) so this should be a fun fight.
Fun facts of the night (taken from Wikipedia): "[Houston Alexander] is also a well-known hip-hop artist who is from North Omaha, Nebraska." Really? Well known by what standards?
"Alexander has also been vocal about Omaha’s lack of support for its hip hop artists." I hate to call anything a lost cause, but trying to get Omaha to embrace hip hop could possibly be just that.
My Pick: James Irvin ($100 to win $215)
Watch the Cung Le vs. Frank Shamrock Fight Free!
Monday, March 31st, 2008If you still haven’t seen the Strikeforce middleweight title fight between Frank Shamrock and Cung Le you can watch it for free at one of my favorite MMA sites mmascraps.com.
mmascraps.com does a good job of posting events right after they happen. I don’t know if it’s legal or not, but it’s not my site so good for them!
UFC – Ultimate Fight Night 13 Picks
Sunday, March 30th, 2008Lightweights:
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Kenny Florian (-220)
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Name (Odds)
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Joe Lauzon (+180)
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8-3-0 (6-2 in UFC)
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Record
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16-3-0 (3-0 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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United States
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Team
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Reality Self Defense
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|
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31 Years Old
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Age
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23 Years Old
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Kenny Florian is good, but this line seems inflated. I think Florian is getting a boost because of recognizability brought about by his apperance on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. Joe Lauzon also appeared on The Ultimate Fighter, but fighters who appeared on the first season seem to garner more recognition. If Kenny Florian is able to beat Joe Lauzon that will be the best opponent he has defeated. One reason I like Lauzon is because of his youth. 31 years isn’t old, but a fighter who is 23 is probably going to have a little more in his gas tank.
My Pick: Joe Lauzon ($100 to win $180)
Welterweights :
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Karo Parisyan (-180)
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Name (Odds)
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Thiago Alves (+150)
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18-4-0 (8-1 in UFC)
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Record
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13-3-0 (6-2 in UFC)
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United States
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Country
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Brazil
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Team
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American Top Team
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|
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25 Years Old
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Age
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24 Years Old
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Karo Parisyan has two losses in the last seven years. One of them came against Georges St. Pierre. The other was against Diego Sanchez.
Thiago Alves is a great knockout artist. 8 of his 13 wins have come by either KO or TKO, but I don’t think he in the same class as Karo Parisyan.
My Pick: Karo Parisyan ($100 to win $55.54)
Running Totals After Week 3
Sunday, March 30th, 2008Before the weekend I was up $244.50. Some of my old picks can be found at my old blog.
RUNNING TOTAL: +$150.53
LOCKS OF THE WEEK (none this week): 2/2, +$40.76
VALUE BETS OF THE WEEK (none this week): 1/1, +$275
Bow Tie Betting – Week 3 Results
Sunday, March 30th, 2008| Fighter | Fighter | Hypothetical Bet Size | Event | Winner | Running Total |
| Logan Clark (-325) | Scott Harper (+250) | $100 | WEC 33 | Logan Clark by TKO | +$30.76 |
| Kenji Osawa (-120) | Chris Manuel (+110) | $50 | WEC 33 | Decision DRAW | +$30.76 |
| Richard Crunkilton Jr (-240) | Sergio Gomez (+190) | $50 | WEC 33 | Rich Crunkilton by Unanimous Decision | -$19.24 |
| Brock Larson (-300) | John Alessio (+240) | $50 | WEC 33 | Brock Larson by DQ (Illegal Knee) | -$69.24 |
| Hiromitsu Miura (-170) | Blas Avena (+140) | $50 | WEC 33 | Hiromitsu Miura by TKO | -$119.24 |
| Steve Cantwell (+115) | Tim McKenzie (-140) | $50 | WEC 33 | Steve Cantwell by Submission | -$61.74 |
| Marcus Hicks (-130) | Ed Ratcliff (EVEN) | $50 | WEC 33 | Marcus Hicks by Submission | -$111.74 |
| Chael Sonnen (-490) | Bryan Baker (+290) | $50 | WEC 33 | Chael Sonnen by Unanimous Decision | -$161.74 |
| Brian “All American” Stann (-180) | Doug “Rhino” Marshall (+150) | $50 | WEC 33 | Brian Stann by TKO | -$133.97 |
| Gilbert Melendez (-650) | Gabe Lemley (+450) | $50 | EliteXC/Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Le | Gilbert Melendez by TKO | -$183.97 |
| Frank Shamrock (-220) | Cung Le (+180) | $50 | EliteXC/Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Le | Cung Le by TKO | -$93.97 |
So…. this was a bad week. WEC 33 killed me. 7 out of 8 favorites won. That’s pretty ridiculous. My lock of the week Logan Clark came through. So my locks of the week are now 2/2. Cung Le was able to defeat Shamrock in what I consider to be the best fight of the week. They went to war, but Cung Le was able to pull out a victory after breaking Shamrock’s arm in the third round.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson’s Unofficial Title Defense
Friday, March 28th, 2008“BWE.tv’s Alex Blagg claims to have beaten UFC Champion Rampage Jackson in high school wrestling. Rampage doesn’t remember this. Here is their re-match.”
The video is worth it for the suplex 40 seconds in.
Bow Tie Betting – Friday Pick Recaps (3/28/08)
Friday, March 28th, 2008The Strikeforce/EliteXC card scheduled for tomorrow night has gone to shit. Three of the fights on the televised card have been canceled. That means only two fights that I originally picked are still going to take place.
Cung Le (+180) vs. Frank Shamrock (-220)
I picked Le in this fight, because I thought +180 was too much. It seems like bodoglife.com agrees. Right now Cung Le is listed as +155. I don’t think his line will slip much lower. I actually think Le’s line could get a little better before tomorrow night.
Gilbert Melendez (-650) vs. Gabe Lemley (+450)
This line hasn’t moved at all.
I don’t have a “Value Bet of the Week” right now, but that could change before tomorrow night. There have been some replacement fights announced, and I am waiting to see if bodoglife.com puts the lines up.
EliteXC/Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Le: UPDATE #2
Thursday, March 27th, 2008A third fight from the Saturday main card has been canceled.
Nick Diaz will not be fighting because it appears the California Athletic Commission has a problem granting him a license because of his use of medical marijuana. You know you have a problem when marijuana costs you two fights.
I cannot remember an event where 3 televised fights have been canceled. I am looking forward to the scrubs they find to fill out the card. Look for a late betting update as soon as the new matches are announced.
Week 3: Lock of the Week
Wednesday, March 26th, 2008My lock of the week for week 3 is going to be Logan Clark at -325 over Scott Harper at tonight’s WEC event. My locks of the week have gone 1/1. Hopefully tonight will make it 2/2.
The Bow Tie Aficionado Picks WEC 33
Wednesday, March 26th, 2008There are some WEC fights tonight! Bodog just put the lines up yesterday evening, so here are my quick picks for tonight. These lines come from Bodoglife.com at about 11 AM Central Time.
Middleweights:
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Hiromitsu Miura (-170)
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Name (Odds)
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Blas Avena (+140)
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8-4-0
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Record
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2-1-0
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|
Japan
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Country
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United States
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SAMURAI SWORD
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Team
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|
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26 Years Old
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Age
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24 Years Old
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This is Hiromitsu Miura’s third fight for WEC. Before that he fought mostly in Japan (HERO’s, DEEP, Pancrase, etc.). He is 1-1 in WEC fights, but had a much better record in Japan. My largest problem with him is that he has never faced an excellent opponent. The best fighter he has ever fought (and lost to) was Jason Miller. Miller is a fighter probably most famous for going the distance against Georges St. Pierre at UFC 52.
After losing his WEC debut in January of last year, Blas Avena has won his last two fights. He might not have the experience that Miura has, but I like him in this fight. The one thing I fear the most when betting on inexperienced fighters is that they will get caught in some kind of submission. I don’t have that anxiety here, because Miura has only won one fight by submission.
My Pick: Blas Avena ($50 to win $70)
Welterweights:
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Brock Larson (-300)
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Name (Odds)
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John Alessio (+240)
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22-2-0
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Record
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22-10-0
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United States
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Country
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United States
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|
Minnesota Martial Arts Academy
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Team
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Xtreme Couture
|
|
30 Years Old
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Age
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28 Years Old
|
Brock Larson is good. One of his two losses was to current WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit. The other was to UFC veteren Jon Fitch (17-2). He has a couple of good victories, including a win over Keita Nakamura (14-3-2) at UFC – Fight Night 7 that was the first loss of Nakamura’s career.
For being so young, John Alessio has been fighting for a long time. Alessio’s first career MMA match was in 1998 when he was only 19 years old! He lost to Pat Miletich (28-7-2), founder of Miletich Martial Arts, in 2000 at UFC 26. Since then Alessio has fought in UFC, KOTC, PRIDE, WED, and other smaller promotions. I think that his experience will give him a chance in this fight. At +240 I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Alessio is a steal, but he’s my pick.
Fun Fact (Taken from wikipedia): John Alessio is also a BMX trick biker. He won the national trick biking championship 2 years in a row.
My Pick: John Alessio ($50 to win $120)
Lightweights:
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Richard Crunkilton Jr (-240)
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Name (Odds)
|
Sergio Gomez (+190)
|
|
15-2-0
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Record
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7-1-0
|
|
United States
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Country
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United States
|
|
American Kickboxing Academy
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Team
|
|
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28 Years Old
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Age
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25 Years Old
|
Sergio Gomez is 7-1. His only loss was to the undefeated fighter Marcus Hicks (7-0).
Crunkilton has 2 losses. Rob McCullough (15-4) and Hermes Franca (18-6) have both defeated him.
I’ll take the underdog
My Pick: Sergio Gomez ($50 to win $95)
Bantamweights:
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Kenji Osawa (-120)
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Name (Odds)
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Chris Manuel (+110)
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|
13-7-1
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Record
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6-0-1
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|
Japan
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Country
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|
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Wajyutsu Keisyukai A3
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Team
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American Top Team
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|
31 Years Old
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Age
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I rarely am going to go against an undefeated fighter. Especially if the undefeated fighter is an underdog.
My Pick: Chris Manuel ($50 to win $55)
Middleweights:
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Logan Clark (-325)
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Name (Odds)
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Scott Harper (+250)
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|
9-1-0
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Record
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8-3-0
|
|
United States
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Country
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United States
|
|
Minnesota Martial Arts Academy
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Team
|
|
|
23 Years Old
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Age
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35 Years Old
|
Logan "The Pink Pounder" Clark is 9-1 with a terrible nickname. His only loss is to Eric Schambari (7-1).
Normally I am all about the underdog, but Scott Harper seems like a guy that they just found on the street. He is a 35 year old police captain with three kids. He has experience in events such as Wild Bill’s Fight Night. His profile on WEC’s website claims, "I have a full time job as a Captain with the Coffee County Sheriff’s Office. I am married with three kids and I run my own mixed martial arts school in Douglas, GA. This makes finding time to train very hard." (Emphasis mine) His wins are against nobodies. His losses are mostly against nobodies. I see him getting killed.
My Pick: Logan Clark ($50 to win $15.38)
Light Heavyweights:
|
Brian "All American" Stann (-180)
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Name (Odds)
|
Doug "Rhino" Marshall (+150)
|
|
5-0-0
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Record
|
7-2-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Xtreme Couture
|
Team
|
|
|
27 Years Old
|
Age
|
31 Years Old
|
Now these are some quality nicknames. How can you beat "All American?"
Brian Stann is 5-0 with 5 TKOs. How do you bet against that?
My Pick: Brian Stann ($50 to win $27.77)
Middleweights:
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Chael Sonnen (-490)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Bryan Baker (+290)
|
|
19-9-1
|
Record
|
6-0-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team Quest
|
Team
|
Team Wildman Vale Tudo
|
|
30 Years Old
|
Age
|
22 Years Old
|
This line makes no sense to me. It’s not like Baker has been fighting scrubs. Baker is 2-0 in the WEC with wins over Eric Schambari (7-1) and Jesse Forbes (6-2). Just place your bet quietly and walk away.
I see now…. Baker is a late replacement. This fight was announced yesterday. But +290 is +290.
My Pick: Bryan Baker ($50 to win $145)
Lightweights:
|
Marcus Hicks (-130)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Ed Ratcliff (EVEN)
|
|
7-0-0
|
Record
|
6-0-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Colony Boxing
|
Team
|
North County Fight Club
|
|
32 Years Old
|
Age
|
25 Years Old
|
This is a tough fight for me to pick. Both fighters are 2-0 in WEC fights. Both come from smaller organizations. Both have faced similar opponents. Neither has ever had a fight go the distance. I think the line is fair. The extra win Hicks has is probably worth about 30 points. I don’t really have an opinion, so I’ll take Ratcliff with the extra odds.
This looks like it could be the best fight of the evening.
My Pick: Ed Ratcliff ($50 to win $50)
Light Heavyweights
|
Tim McKenzie (-140)
|
Name (Odds)
|
Steve Cantwell (+115)
|
|
11-4-0
|
Record
|
4-1-0
|
|
United States
|
Country
|
United States
|
|
Team
|
||
|
Age
|
21 Years Old
|
Cantwell’s only loss is to "All American" Brian Stann. I like his youth and stopping power (none of his fights have gone the distance).
My Pick: Steve Cantwell ($50 to win $57.50)
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